Update on groundfish stock trends for the Gulf of Alaska

1. Update on groundfish stock trends for the Gulf of Alaska GOA Plan Team Members James Ianelli (co-chair) AFSC Diana Stram (co-chair) NPFMC Bill Bechtol ADFG Tory O’Connell ADFG Nick Sagalkin* ADFG Bob Foy UAF Bill Clark IPHC Eric Eisenhardt* WDF Jeff Fujioka AFSC Sarah Gaichas AFSC Jon Heifetz AFSC Tom Pearson AKR Beth Sinclair NMML Kathy Kuletz USFWS Gulf of Alaska Groundfish Plan Team November 2004

2. Main events in the GOA • 18 assessments (from 14 groups) • Amendment 48/48 • Biennial assessment cycle • New treatment and assessment requirements • Issues with projection model • Two brand new assessments presented • Rex sole • Rougheye rockfish • Presented last year (and used this year for ABC) • Dover sole • Dusky rockfish

3. Amendment 48/48 “The proposed specifications will specify for up to 2 fishing years the annual TAC for each target species and the ‘‘other species’’ category and apportionments thereof, halibut prohibited species catch amounts, and seasonal allowances of pollock and Pacific cod.” 50 CFR Part 679. Two-Year Ahead ABC and OFL Projections: p. 9 BSAI SAFE report

4. 48/48 Considerations • Biennial cycle of assessments • Author’s discretion unless special recommendation is made • Pollock, cod and sablefish to remain annual • Atka mackerel kept biennial since there is no age-structured model in the GOA • 2-year recommendations • 2005 and 2006 • Caveat on the use of the projection model: • Uses best information available • Likely to be conservative since full catch is often less than ABC levels

5. GOA Catch and ABC levels

6. ABC Summary Page 35

7. GOA Pollock assessment features • Winter EIT (acoustic) survey (Appendix A) • Environmental indices • Predator prey evaluation

8. 2003 Winter acoustics 2004

9. Shelikof Strait EIT survey 1981-2004

10. Spawning biomass Pollockmodelresults Recruitment

11. EIT fit

12. Trawl survey fits NMFS ADFG

13. Pollock biomass compared to previous analyses

14. Fishing mortality relative to FOFL

15. Uncertainty in spawning stock biomass

16. Gulf of Alaska predationArrowtooth flounder

17. GOA pollock arrowtooth flounder

18. What pollock eat Pollock diet

19. Where pollock end up ECOPATH Pollock mortality

20. Diet diversity of pollock predators

21. Trends in pollock predators

22. ABC considerations • 2003 BTS survey increase (86%) • 2004 EIT survey increase (8%) • 2004 ADF&G survey increase (48%) • Concerns over recruitment since 1999 • Ecosystem interactions clear • Role of arrowtooth flounder and other predators

23. Added pollock conservation measures • Model selected • Survey catchability assumption fixed at 1.0 • A constant-buffer scheme is used • Fishing mortality kept at current (low) level • Plan Team used an ABC that only increases by one half the FABC level (20,450 tons instead of 40,900)

24. Pollock 2005 ABC 86,100 Plan Team Author's Recommendation 78,980 Maximum permissible 124,800

25. Pollock Spawning biomass • Spawning biomass (1,000’s tons) • 2005 = 213 • B40% = 229 • B20% = 115

26. ABC Summary Page 131

27. GOA Catch and ABC levels

28. Pacific codWhat’s New? • Data • 2003 catch and length comp updated • Preliminary 2004 catch and length comp added • Errors in 2000/2001 length comps corrected • No changes to the model • Results • Spawning bio. down 11%, about as expected • ABC down 7%, about as expected • New ABC methodology proposed

29. Comparative Biomass Trends

30. Recruitment by year class

31. F vs Spawning biomass levels 2004 1978

32. ABC RecommendationApplying the Alternative Approach to 2005 • New adjustment to ABC applied • Trade-off • Maximizing yield & • Minimizing catch variability • 2005 ABC of 58,100 mt (compared to 2004 catch of 58,600) • 2005 maximum permissible ABC = 73,800 mt • 2005 OFL = 86,200 mt

33. Pacific cod

34. Pacific cod • Female spawning biomass (tons) • 2005 = 91,700 • B40% = 84,400 • B35% = 73,850

35. GOA Catch and ABC levels Page 233

36. Sablefish • Notes • Survey abundance decreased ~5% from 2003 estimate • Status “moderate” • 2004 biomass about 4% higher than 2000 level • Below the B40% level (~91%) • Plan Team agreed with author’s recommended ABC • Supported the careful examination of uncertainty

37. Sablefish survey indices Sablefish-Alaska wide

38. Sablefish biomass compared to past analyses

39. Sablefish summary

40. Sablefish spawning biomass • Spawning biomass (1,000’s tons) • 2005 = 204 • B40% = 223 • B35% = 195

41. GOA Catch and ABC levels Page 299

42. New things in GOA flatfish • Dover sole assessment • 1st presented last year, used this year (and for 2006) • Rex sole assessment • Reviewed in September, will be used next year • Flathead and arrowtooth flounder projected from last year’s estimates

43. Flatfish ABC’s Deep-water ABC derived from Dover assessment (Tier 3) + others (Tier 5)

44. Dover sole2nd year presented

45. Dover sole • Female spawning biomass (tons) • 2005 = 36,400 • B40% = 16,500 • B35% = 14,400

46. Rex soleNew assessment

47. Rex sole • Female spawning biomass (tons) • 2005 = 35,400 • B40% = 18,700 • B35% = 16,400

48. Flathead sole(2003 assessment)

49. Flathead sole • Female spawning biomass (tons) • 2005 = 110,000 (assuming avg. F in projection) • B40% = 48,000 • B35% = 42,000

50. Arrowtooth flounder