WMO; WDS

1. SWFDP – Southeast Asia and Bay of Bengal Regional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Macao, China, 8 – 19 April 2013 WMO GDPFS Programme – SWFDP Alice Soares WMO Secretariat, DPFS Division, WDS (asoares@wmo.int) WMO; WDS

2. Outline Operational weather forecasting - the WMO’s World Weather Watch (WWW) and its Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) SWFDP concepts SWFDP regional subprojects SWFDP – Southeast Asia SWFDP – Bay of Bengal

3. The World Weather Watch System –An operational infrastructure The World Weather Watch System combines: • observing systems (WIGOS), • Telecommunication, data and information exchange facilities (WIS), and • data-processing and forecasting system (GDPFS) Operated by Members, coordinated through the WMO Secretariat To make available meteorological and related geophysical information needed by Members for providing efficient services

4. The Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) of the WWW Makes available to WMO Members weather and climate analyses, forecasts and predictions to enable them to provide … high-quality predictions and forecasts, warning and information services …. • Outputs of the NWP Systems technology, including for environmental emergency response • GDPFS supports many WMO programmes and relevant programmes of other International Organizations, e.g. ICAO, IAEA, etc. (see: “Manual on the GDPFS”- WMO-No. 485)

5. World Weather Watch – S&T into operational services <= Integrated Observing System (WIGOS) <= Global Telecom & Data Management (WIS) <= Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) <= National Meteorological Services providing services to public and users (PWS)

6. GDPFS Centres + National Meteorological Centres

7. Weather Forecasting Daily forecasts and weather information are available on: Open Internet Private enterprises Academic institutions Weather as news (e.g. focus on disasters) WMO Operational weather forecasting WMO’s GDPFS Centres Numerous advanced NWP Centres Authoritative, reliable and quality assured sources of information (objective verification), sustainable

8. GDPFS Centres • GDPFS Centres are NMCs at NMHSs • 24/7/365 operationally supported infrastructure (e.g. at NMCs, RSMCs, GPCs) • Highly automated and robust production with backup, and recovery system • Meteorological expertise • Regional structure (e.g. multi-national and regional centres) for collaboration, harmonization, operational advantage

9. The Challenge: mitigating the growing technological gap in weather forecasting ? 9 Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past two decades – advances in monitoring and NWP and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) leading to improved alerting of weather hazards, at increased lead-times of warnings Most of NMHSs saw little progress due to limited budgets, etc. increasing gap in application of advanced technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings Attempting to close this gap by increasing availability, and developing capacity to use existing NWP and EPS

10. Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011) Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) “Implementation of a “Cascading Forecasting Process”, an approach that provides improved access to, and effective use by forecasters of existing and newly developed NWP/EPS products made available by advanced GDPFS Centres, national forecasting and warning services have improved significantly, with increased lead-times and greater reliability.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2011)

11. SWFDP Main Goals WMO • Improve Severe Weather Forecasting through the “Cascading Forecasting Process” (Global to Regional to National) • Improve lead-time of Warnings • Improve interaction of NMHSs with users • Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems • Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback

12. SWFDP Development and Implementation: a 4-step cycle • Establish regional partnerships • Regional management teams; focus on forecasting and warning services of meteorological-related hazards • Plan and develop of prototype demonstration project • Regional project-specific IP for which the management team is accountable. IP describes team members’ responsibilities, project activities and milestones (typically for 12-18 months) • Implement demonstration project • Tracking, continuously evaluation, training and reporting • Broaden and sustain successful prototypes • (return to step 1) Under the Guidance of the Steering Group of the SWFDP

13. SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process User communities, including Disaster Management authorities Global Centres RSMC Pretoria NMCs 13 Global NWPcentres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project; NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.

14. Visionforthe SWFDP as an end-to-end, cross-programme collaborative activity (led by the GDPFS)“that engages all WMO programmes that concern the real-time prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards, through their respective technical commissions: from observations, to information exchange, to delivery of services to the public and a range of targeted applications/user sectors, education and training, capacity development and support to LDCs, and to the transfer of relevant promising research outputs into operations.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2011) WMO Strategic Priorities • Service Delivery and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) • Capacity Development • GFCS - Climate change adaptation, in support of the 4 pillars: Health, Water, Food Security, and DRR

15. SWFDP Regional Projects WMO • Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC-TC La Réunion) • Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji) • Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) • Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC Hanoi) • Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC New Delhi) • WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs) • 42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs) • Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR, CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy, JCOMM, and CAS)

16. Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, WCP, etc. Flash Flood Guidance HWR Feedback and Verification General Public, media, disaster management authorities General Public, media, disaster management authorities PWS, HWR, WCP PWS Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products National Met Centres (Forecast/Warning Bulletins) Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs) Global Centres LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability) Specific User Sectors (Agriculture, Marine, Aviation, etc.) AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. RSMCs-TC TCP GDPFS WIGOS, WIS SP Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR) WWRP Satellite Imagery and Tools Observing and information systems Research Projects SWFDP: a cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs)

17. SWFDP – Southeast Asia WMO • SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progress • Project develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/documents/Report_SWFDP-SeA_IP_Sep2010.pdf) • Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell) • Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E and 140°E • Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA (NWP guidance material, satellite products) • Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi (TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support) • NMCs:Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Viet Nam, Philippines, Macao,China • Start-up awaiting establishment of RFSC Ha Noi (2013)

18. SWFDP – Southeast Asia

19. Examples of products made available through the SWFDP – Southeast Asia 19

20. SWFDP – Bay of BengalFocus: Coastal communities and activities • Bangladesh • India • Maldives • Myanmar • Sri Lanka • Thailand • Bhutan (later) • Nepal (later) • Afghanistan (later) • Pakistan (later) 40E – 125 E 50 N – 10 S Severe Weather from TCs, severe thunderstorms and monsoon: Heavy precipitation, Strong winds Large waves / swell, Storm Surge Improved severe weather forecasting (GDPFS), warning services to disaster management (PWS) and with agriculture (AgMet)

21. SWFDP – Bay of Bengal RSMC New Delhi SWFDP – Bay of Bengal Portal

22. ECMWF products for WMO Members

23. SWFDP Websites • SWFDP-Southeast Asia, RFSC Ha Noi • http://www.swfdp-sea.com.vn/index • ID: swfdp-sea • pw: RA2 • SWFDP-Bay of Bengal, RSMC New Delhi http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone.htm ECMWF http://www.ecmwf.int JMA and RSMC Tokyo http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/swfdp/ CMA (SWFDP) http://eng.weather.gov.cn/swfdp/ KMA's SWFDP-SeA Webpage is now available at:  http://www.kma.go.kr/ema/nema03/swfdp/index.jsp

24. Future directions and role of the SWFDP • More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and least developed countries) ~ 12 RSMCs • Hydro-meteorological hazards • Sector-specific hazards (e.g. agriculture, marine, etc.) • Beyond day-5 • Vehicle to collect and convey the evolving requirements for the Basic Systems, including to WIGOS and WIS, in the target countries • Vehicle for introducing promising R&D • Cross-programme guidance • Regular budget and extrabudgetary resourses • Project Office

25. SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) Forecasting (GDPFS) and warning services (PWS) High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves, storm surges, etc.), and application areas (e.g. TCP, AgM, HWR, MMO, etc) Forecast verification Climate change adaptation

26. End Result of a SWFDP The end result of SWFDP is to improve warnings, forecasts and delivering services to: Save lives Protect properties Help people make better decisions with the help of science and technology Serving communities of users!

27. PWSComponent of SWFDP Focus:Use the tools/skills/techniques of improved forecasting Address:How to apply those tools to deliver warnings and forecast services to identified user groups These two componentstogetherare indispensible to ensure SWFDP achieves its objectives

28. SWFDP – Project FrameworkCBS Steering Group for SWFDP REFERENCE : • SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. 2010) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_OverallPP_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf • SWFDP Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (rev. 2010) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_Guidebook_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf

29. Thank you for your attention • DISCUSSION