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Seminar 2

Seminar 2. Scoping - Interactions between Migration Patterns, Local Employment and Labour Markets in New Zealand. Seminar Outline. Presentation (45mins) Short Questionnaire (5 mins) Round Robin Commentary (20 mins) Discussion (20 ins). Presentation Plan.

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Seminar 2

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  1. Seminar 2 Scoping - Interactions between Migration Patterns, Local Employment and Labour Markets in New Zealand MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  2. Seminar Outline • Presentation (45mins) • Short Questionnaire (5 mins) • Round Robin Commentary (20 mins) • Discussion (20 ins) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  3. Presentation Plan • Migration and Labour Market Concepts • Some Regional Migration and Employment Change Statistics for 1986-91 and 1991-96 • Broad Research Issues • Directions for Future Work MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  4. What is Migration / Mobility • Migration is a special case of the mobility of people, families and / or households • Refers to the permanent or long term movement of place of permanent residence • Migration events (eg. International Arrival / Departure registrations) • Migration transitions (population census - changes in permanent residence between successive census periods) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  5. Motivation for Migration - Lifecycle stage / activity transitions • Finishing School • Education and Training • Household formation - relationships - having children • Seeking or Changing jobs • Housing tenure • Retirement etc. MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  6. Sources of Statistical Data • NZ Census of Population and Dwellings • residential address 5 years ago • years at current address • years in New Zealand • place of birth • NZ International Arrival and Departure Survey • Other specialised partial surveys (eg Longitudinal Survey of International Migrants) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  7. Defining the Labour Market • Theoretical Concept with spatial and other dimensions • Spatial - Geographical accessibility • Commuting locus in the short term • Migration locus in the long term • Job / occupational attributes • Skill / education or other requirements • Employee / person attributes • Skill / education or other characteristics MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  8. What are Functional Labour Market Areas (Main - Secondary) • Defined in terms of • Geographical accessibility (commuting - short term / migration - long term) • Skill / education or other barriers to participation • Skill / education or other characteristics of potential employees • Travel accessibility between residential and workplace locations • Cost • Time • Convenience • Differences between occupations - industries, demographic and-or socio-economic groups MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  9. Why Local Labour Market Areas? • Individuals make decisions about employment or migration in a local labour market context • Making inferences from higher to lower levels of spatial analysis is the individualistic fallacy of spatial geography • Conclusions reached on national or regional data can’t be inferred for spatial areas within them • Selection of spatial units has consequences MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  10. Explaining Regional Labour Market Characteristics (Morrison 1999) • Strong labour markets have high • reverse unemployment rates • wage rates • full-time employment rates • Labour market adjustment through migration • low where hidden unemployment is high • high where education and skill levels high MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  11. Types of Migration - Labour Market Interaction • Employment related migration to or from different areas • Migration effects on local economies and labour markets (positive and negative) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  12. Migration - Labour Market Effects Expected • Out migration rates will increase in response to reduction in local employment • In migration rates will increase in response to increases in local employment • Employment will increase or decrease in response to changes in the migration rate for selected population groups (eg retirees) • Different responses for different demographic groups on the basis of their labour market behaviour • Different responses for different localities on the basis of the nature of the local labour market MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  13. Some Recent NZ Regional Migration and Labour Market Patterns • Net Migration Rates • Migration Indicators • Migration Intensity • Migration Effectiveness • Dependence of Migration Rates on Employment Changes • International Migration Rates by Region MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  14. Why Look at Regions? • Interested in labour market related migration movements • Longer distance moves more likely to have a be motivated in part by employment considerations • Screening / filtering out intra-regional movements selects for these types of migration transitions MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  15. Net Migration Rates by Region 1986-91 and 1991-96(Net migration as a % of the starting population) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  16. Migration Intensities by Region(Gross Migration Flows over Population) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  17. Migration Effectiveness by Region(Net Migration Flows over Gross Migration Flows) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  18. Net Migration Rates and Changes in Full Time Employment by Region for 1986-91 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  19. Dependence of Net Migration Rates on Changes in FT Employment (as % Population) for 1986-91 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  20. Net Migration Rates and Changes in FT Employment by Region for 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  21. Dependence of Net Migration Rates on Changes in FT Employment (as % Population) for 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  22. Statistics for Regression of Net Migration Rate on Change in FT Employment (as % Population) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  23. Gross Out Migration Flows as a Percent of Population by Region for 1986-91 and 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  24. Gross Internal Out Migration Flows as a Percent of Population by Region for 1986-91 and 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  25. Gross International Out Migration Flows as a Percent of Population by Region for 1986-91 and 1991-96 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  26. Research on Migration and Labour Markets • University programmes • Central Government Work • Research Priorities for LMPG? • Directions for Future Work MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  27. Academic Regional Migration / Labour Market Research • Waikato – New Demographic Directions Programme – Dick Bedford (Geography) & Ian Pool (Demography) • Auckland – Metropolis Project –Ward Friesen et al (Geography) • Massey – New Settlers Programme, Andrew Trlin (also Alan Bartley at Albany campus?) • Victoria University – Phil Morrison (Geography), Jacques Poot (Economics) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  28. Central Govt. Work on Local / Regional Migration / Labour Markets • Treasury • Economic Geography and Spatial Statistics Project • Regional Adjustment and Internal Migration Scoping Study • Statistics NZ - add-on survey on motivations for internal mobility? • Labour Market Policy Group (DoL) • Scoping Study – Interaction of Migration and Local Labour Markets • ? MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  29. Research Issues for LMPG? • What are NZ’s Functional Labour Market Areas? • Labour market effects on migration (eg. lbr mkt adjmt) • Migration effects on local economies / labour markets • Occupational and skill groups - monitoring and modelling recruitment, retention, demand and supply over time (effect of migration flows on labour supply) • Difference between Maori, Pacific Island, and total labour market - migration interactions and implications for policy and programmes • Migration patterns of beneficiaries • Characterising Community level labour market - migration interactions MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  30. Issues - Knowledge Base Standards 1. Establish Standards for Comparability between LMPG and other sub-national knowledge bases and improve application of technology • Why? • make connections / make linkages / think across portfolios • have comparable / compatible systems indicators at sub-national level • develop shareable applications of in-house departmental operational databases • What? • Spatial units • Demographic • Standardise other attributes (e.g. Labour / Employment) • Data formats & Technologies (eg. GIS software used?) MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  31. Issues 2. Identify Functional Labour Market Areas • Why? • A pre-requisite to proper study of labour market - migration interactions • Regional data can’t be extrapolated to local level (individualistic fallacy) • Useful in understanding local development • How? • Short term - indicative boundaries - quick interim classification • More detailed longer term study of functional labour markets boundaries and their finer characteristics MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  32. Issues 3. Improve the knowledge base on NZ sub-national labour markets • Current Resources • Selected Aggregate AU, TLA and Regional data (Census 1986-96) • Regional HHLFS, QES, Unemployment Register (quarterly, annual 198?-2000) • Gaps • Detailed • A pre-requisite to proper study of labour market - migration interactions • Useful in understanding local development MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  33. Issues 4. Improving the Knowledge Base on Internal and External Migration History / Behaviour • Current Knowledge • Aggregate Initial Model by Region for 1986-91 and 1991-96 (Census) • National Picture by Quarter (International Arrival / Departure Survey) • Gaps • Extension to Ethnic Groups and Sub-regional areas (TLAs, Lbr Mkt Areas etc.) • Comparable data for External Regions (espec. Australia) • Better Age Breakdowns, Better estimates of Int Outmigrants, Extension to 1981-86 MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  34. Issues 5. Role of Migration in Labour Market Adjustment • Exploratory Analysis at Regional Level with off the shelf aggregate data • Analysis of more refined data to test hypothesis on the influence of different factors on interactive response • Demographic groups (age, gender, ethnicity) • Labour force status • Industries / Occupations / Educational Level • Spatial levels • Implications for policy and programme development MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  35. Issues 6. Other Effects of Migration in Local Employment / Labour Markets • Exploratory Analysis at Regional Level with off the shelf aggregate data • Analysis of more refined data to test hypothesis on the influence of different factors on interactive response • Demographic groups (age, gender, ethnicity) • Labour force status • Industries / Occupations / Educational Level • Spatial levels • Implications for policy and programme development MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  36. Issues 7. Understanding effect of migration on changes in the labour market by occupation • Life cycles (flows from recruitment through education and training by cohort) • Migration Losses and Recruitment • Changing Demand and Supply for occupations by industry • Human capital model MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  37. Issues 8. Gaps Issues : Labour Force - Migration Interactions for Maori, Pacific Island vs others • Evidence for differences between Maori and Total migration - labour market interactions at local level (Morrison, 1999) • Explanatory power of various factors • Educational status • Occupations / industry concentrations • Local community characteristics (eg non-cash / informal economy) • Implications for Policies and Programmes MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  38. Issues 9. Relationship Between Benefit System, Labour Markets and Migration • Evidence that beneficiaries concentrate in certain areas • Extent to which this is migration driven? • Might be seen as pareto-optimal solution • Implications - eg. Effect on ability to participate in the formal and informal labour market, seasonal / part time / full time work - implications for families MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  39. Issues 10. Characterising Labour market - migration interactions for spatial communities • Meaning of community? • Spatial • Functional (eg churches for Pacific Island) • How to define spatial communities? • School catchment areas • History • Economic relationships (industries, travel to work patterns • Finer analysis of migration - labour markets in functional lbr mkt context MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  40. Directions for Future Work • Initial Scoping Study • Exploratory Analysis at Regional Level • Reconcile National and Regional Analysis – and Arrival Departure and Census based data • Extend the regional analysis • Maori • Age groups • Occupations / Industries / Educational Level • Exploratory study of local labour market areas using travel to work data MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  41. Directions for Future Work • Extend the work to Local Authorities, Functional Labour Market Areas and Communities • Need a better knowledge base for the study of migration and labour market interactions – unit record level analysis • Short term – custom tables, data sharing with other agencies? • Medium term – build a “Datalab” capability – for unit record level analysis of Census, Arrival/Departure, Vital Statistics MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

  42. Stages of Knowledge Base Development • Exploratory analysis of available data (limitations of that data) • Development of appropriate system design concepts • Design and commissioning of selected customised series • Analysis of customised series • Design and evolution of datalab based “expert systems” • Integration of datalab based “expert systems” into policy and programme assessment and development MERA Scoping Study : Interactions between Migration and Local Labour Markets LMPG Seminar 2, 17 Oct 2000

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