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Cosmic rays, clouds and climate change

Cosmic rays, clouds and climate change. Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space, DTU. Cosmic rays and climate Definitions Empirical evidence Experimental efforts and results Microphysical mechanism? Impact on the real atmosphere

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Cosmic rays, clouds and climate change

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  1. Cosmic rays, clouds and climate change Henrik Svensmark, Center for Sun Climate Research Space, DTU • Cosmic rays and climate • Definitions • Empirical evidence • Experimental efforts and results • Microphysical mechanism? • Impact on the real atmosphere • Natural experiments with Earth (Forbushdecreases) • Ocean heat content (1950 – 2010)

  2. What are Cosmic Rays? Heliosphere, Cosmic Rays and Solar Activity

  3. Cosmic ray shower (Movie) About 70 muons/s /m2 at the Earths surface In 24 hours about 12 million muons goes through a human body

  4. Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago The formation of stalagmites in northern Oman has recorded past northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone3, whose northward migration stops near the southern shoreline of Arabia in the present climate U. Neff et al., Nature 411, 290 - 293 (2001)

  5. Cosmic rays and climate over the last millennium Solar irradiance too small, amplification needed! ”Since everybody thought that the continous crop faliure was caused by witches from devilish hate, the whole contry stood up for their eradication” Johann Linden Travis ca. 1590

  6. How can STARS influence Climate? Net effect of clouds is to cool the Earth by about 30 W/m2

  7. Link between Low Cloud Cover and Galactic Cosmic Rays? Solar cycle variation ISCCP IR Low cloud data 10 0 -10 -20 Calibration? Svensmark & Friis-Christensen, JASTP 1997, Svensmark, PRL 1998, Marsh & Svensmark, PRL, 2000. (update 2005)

  8. Empirical evidence for a relation between cosmic rays and climate If the link is between cosmic rays and clouds, what would the mechanism be?

  9. Aerosol formation and growth Possible link between clouds and cosmic rays CN (Condensation Nuclei) Cloud Drop H2SO4 & Water & Organic Vapors UCN (Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei) CCN (Cloud Condensation Nuclei) Size 0.1 mm 0.001 mm 0.01 mm 10 mm An aerosol is a small cluster of molecules floating in the air Nucleation process is unsolved

  10. - + Cosmic Ray Ionization & Aerosol formation and growth CN (Condensation Nuclei) Cloud Drop H2SO4 & Water Vapors UCN (Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei) CCN (Cloud Condensation Nuclei) Size 0.1 mm 0.001 mm 0.01 mm 10 mm What is the importance of IONS ?

  11. Atmospheric conditions! SKY experiment 2002 - 2006 Gamma source Gamma source Muon detector Radon detector SO2 O3 H2O

  12. q (cm-3 s-1) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Steady state experiment H2SO4 concentration ~ 2*108 (cm-3) O3 ~ 25 ppb SO2 ~ 300 ppt RH ~ 35% Svensmark et al. Proc. R. Soc. A (2007) 463, 385–396

  13. Does it work in the real atmosphere? • Statements • There are always plenty of CCN in the atmosphere a few more will not matter. • It is not important.

  14. Coronal Mass EjectionsNatural experiments for testing the GCR-atmosphere link SOHO satellite, one month of observation

  15. Haloween event 2003

  16. A Classic Forbush Decrease

  17. AERONET, SSM/I, MODIS and ISCCP data for 5 strongest Forbush decreases Clouds Aerosols Liquid water Liquid cloud fraction Low Clouds Svensmark, Bondo and Svensmark, GRL

  18. - + Typical gas phase Aerosol Cloud formation and growth CN (Condensation Nuclei) Cloud Drop H2SO4 & Water Vapors UCN (Ultra Fine Condensation Nuclei) CCN (Cloud Condensation Nuclei) Size 0.1 mm 0.001 mm 0.01 mm 10 mm From solar activity to cosmic ray ionization to aerosols and liquid-water clouds, a causal chain appears to operate on a global scale Ion induced formation of aerosols

  19. Ocean Heat Content 1950 – 2010 (0-700m) Levitus et al. Domingues et al. Ishii and M. Kimoto

  20. Ocean Heat Content Simple Model DF H (Heat Content) Modelled forcings 1) Volcanoes, (aerosol index) 2) Solar Activity, (cosmic ray variation) 3) Regime shift in 1977, (natural variability) 4) Net antropogenic, (residual)

  21. Ocean Heat Content Volcanoes Svensmark

  22. Solar influence Heat Content Solar cycle amplitude consistent with the findings of Nir Shaviv Forcing Year Svensmark

  23. Regime Shift in 1977

  24. HadAT2 tropospheric temperatures (0 – 10 km) Regime shift 850hPa 700hPa 500hPa 300hPa 200hPa

  25. Ocean Heat Content Domingues et al. If solar activity and the regime shift is ignored the net anthropogenic contribution increases with a factor 2-5 Levitus et al. Ishii & Kimoto

  26. Conclusion • Variation in cosmic rays are associated with changes in Earths climate. Strong empirical evidence. (not discussed: long time scales e.g. million of years) • Evidence suggest that clouds are the key player. • New insight to the physical mechanism has been demonstrated experimentally and observationally • Involving ions and aerosol formation • Linking to clouds and thereby the energy budget of the Earth • Observations further suggest that a large fraction of clouds are influenced by ionization. (6% change in liquid water for a 10 % change in ionization) • A large fraction of the recent increase in ocean heat content could be due to natural causes: Solar influence and a regime shift in 1977 • The theory ”cosmic rays and climate” is alive and strong

  27. Thanks: Torsten Bondo Jacob Svensmark Martin Enghoff Nigel D. Marsh Nigel Calder Jens Olaf Pedersen Ulrik I. Uggerhøj Sean Paling

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