Houston Advanced Research Center

1. A Vision for our Energy FutureUH GEMI Energy Advancement Leadership ConferenceKarl R. RábagoEnergy Group Directorkrabago@harc.eduHouston Advanced Research Centerwww.harc.eduNovember 18, 2004

2. Houston Advanced Research Center • Mission focused independent contract research center • Established 1982 • Sustainable development • Clean / Renewable Energy • Sustainable Technologies • Life Sciences / Health • Environment • Social / Policy Analysis • Lab and office space • Around 50 employees • Not-for-profit The Woodlands, Texas

3. Clean & Renewable Energy at HARC • Fuel Cell Evaluation Users Group • Ten different modules/systems from five different manufacturers (2001-2004) • Combined Heat & Power (CHP) • Production of multiple energy products from a single source for maximum efficiency (e.g., cogeneration) • Carbon Management & Markets • Industrial Coalition • Credit aggregation & marketing • Energy Policy • Member, TX Renewable Energy Industry Assc. • Consulting

4. In the Future . . .

5. In the Future . . . Our predictions will come out wrong (unless)

6. US energy/GDP already cut 42%, to very nearly the 1976 “soft path” government actual total energy consumption gas nuclear renewables Rocky Mountain Institute

7. In the Future . . . Crisis will still be the strongest motivator

8. Precipitating Facts Virtus Energy

9. End of a Legend Virtus Energy

10. A New Vision The Texas Sustainable Energy Development Council envisions a Texas responsibly powered by its sustainable energy resource base and serving as a model to others in equitable prosperity, environmental health, advanced technology, innovative government and respect for future generations.

11. Texas: Clean Energy Giant? TX SECO # 8

12. A Reminder • “Resource” is a topic that embodies both economic and physical attributes • We are NOT going to run out of the physical resource - Did a shortage of stones end the stone age? • We ARE going to run out of willingness to pay (in $, frustration, and consequences) for some resources and in some locations • So, at $10 billion dollars or 1 million cases of cancer or 1 million refugees per pound or per barrel or per bushel, we have an infinite supply . . . What are you willing to pay?

13. In the Future . . . We will measure success against the Triple Bottom Line

15. Sustainable Development Society Economy Environment

16. In the Future . . . We will learn Systems Thinking

17. Practical Electric Economics

18. Optimized industrial design • Redesigning a standard (supposedly optimized) industrial pumping loop cut its power from 95 to 7 kW (–92%), cost less to build, and worked better in every way • No new technologies — just two changes in the design mentality • Many other examples are in Natural Capitalism, free at www.natcap.org

19. New design mentality example 1. Big pipes, small pumps (not the opposite)

20. No new technology, except in the mind of the designer 2. Lay out the pipes first, then the equipment (not the reverse). Optimize the WHOLE system,and for multiple benefits.

21. No new technologies, just two design changes • Fat, short, straight pipes — not skinny, long, crooked pipes! • Benefits counted • 92% less pumping energy • Lower capital cost • “Bonus” benefit also captured • 70 kW lower heat loss from pipes • Additional benefits not counted • Less space, weight, and noise • Clean layout for easy maintenance access • But needs little maintenance—more reliable • Longer equipment life

22. In the Future . . . We will look before we leap

23. It Takes a System

24. Finding Better Options

25. Some Systems are Better than Others

26. In the Future . . . Energy solutions will be smaller and more satisfying

27. A 5-year rolling average reveals that US fossil-fueled steam unit orders have been fading since the 1970s; their ordering rate, all ≤1/5 the former size, is now back to Victorian levels Rocky Mountain Institute

28. Big steam units aged ungracefully RMI analysis by André Lehmann, using Markovian smoothing of 29 July 1994 NERC raw data on all 1,347– 1,527 U.S. steam units in the years shown; raw data kindly provided by Resource Insight, Inc.

29. “Distributed Benefits” • Small Is Profitable: The Hidden Economic Benefits of Making Electrical Resources the Right Size (RMI, 8/02) • www.smallisprofitable.org • One of The Economist’s top three business/economics books of 2002 • Codifies and quantifies 207 “distributed benefits” that collectively increase the economic value of decentralized generation by typically ~10 (but site-specific)

30. In the Future . . . The system will be smarter

31. Smarter & More Communicative U.S. DOE

32. Why Make Just One Product?

33. Why Sell Only One Product? Production of RenewableEnergy Environmental & Other Benefits (from displacement) Commodity Electricity • Certificates represent the contractual right to claim the environmental and other non-electricity attributes associated with electricity generated from a renewable energy facility • May be traded independently of energy markets

34. In the Future . . . We will recognize that public goods can and should be well-managed with public policy

35. US Transportation Oil Gap US DOE Hydrogen Posture Plan

36. Per-Capita Electricity Consumption, 1960–2000 16 14 12 Rest of US California 10 MWh Per Person-Year 8 6 4 (DOE and CEC data, compiled 1960–89 by Worldwatch Institute, 1990–2000 by Rocky Mountain Institute; 2000 data are preliminary; 1991–2000 population data not yet renormalized to 2000 Census findings) 2 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 California: policy works Rocky Mountain Institute

37. A Variety of Policies AWEA Wind Energy Outlook 2004

38. In the Future . . . Materials will matter . . . even more

39. World Demand for Stuff is Growing

40. Dematerialization

41. Principal Flows are Fossil Related WRI

42. Hazards are Growing WRI

43. As with Energy, So with Materials

44. No Materials Self-Sufficiency

45. Thanks! • Visit us at www.harc.edu • Karl R. Rábagokrabago@harc.edu