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NEW SOLAR MINIMUM AND THE MINI-ICE AGE OF THE 21 st CENTURY

The Sun sows again the foundation of science By placing itself in the center of climate change discussion. NEW SOLAR MINIMUM AND THE MINI-ICE AGE OF THE 21 st CENTURY. Ph.D.  Víctor Manuel  Velasco Herrera Institute of Geophysics, UNAM, México. Using Wavelet Analysis.

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NEW SOLAR MINIMUM AND THE MINI-ICE AGE OF THE 21 st CENTURY

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  1. The Sun sows again the foundation of science By placing itself in the center of climate change discussion NEW SOLAR MINIMUM AND THE MINI-ICE AGE OF THE 21 st CENTURY Ph.D.  Víctor Manuel  Velasco Herrera Institute of Geophysics, UNAM, México

  2. Using Wavelet Analysis • We show that the Global Warming is associated to: “High” solar secular activity and Global Cooling is associated to “Low” solar activity

  3. What does mean “High” or “Low” solar secular activity? • (secular periodicity > 100-yrs)

  4. We calculated the energy of sunspot as a direct indicator of solar activity for each solar cycle Energy “DYNAMO SOLAR” (gray bars)Sunspot (continuous line)

  5. We calculated the power of sunspot as a direct indicator of solar activity for each solar cycle Energy (gray bars)Sunspot (dotted line) Power “DYNAMO SOLAR” (gray bars)Sunspot (continuous line)

  6. Low Solar Secular Activity : Negative Power Anomalies High Solar Secular Activity : Positive Power Anomalies

  7. High Solar Activity (Global Warming) 11-yrs 60-yrs 120-yrs Maunder Maximum Modern Maximum Dalton Maximum wavelet power spectrum

  8. Low Solar Activity (Global Cooling) Modern Minimum Dalton Minimum Elsy Minimum Maunder Minimum

  9. Maunder minimum [1645-1715] MODERN MINIMUM [1890,1930] DALTON MINIMUM (1790,1830) ELSY MINIMUM [2010-2070] MINI-ICE AGES period of the solar secular activity period of the barycentric motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system

  10. MAXIMA and MINIMA in the SOLAR SECULARES CYCLE(RECONSTRUCTION OF COSMIC RAYS USING NEURONAL NETWORK) DALTON MINIMUM (1790,1830) MODERN MINIMUM [1890,1930] Maunder minimum [1645-1715] ELSY MINIMUM [2010-2070]

  11. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data.Nature, Vol. 433, No. 7026, pp. 613 - 617, 10. February 2005. Anders Moberg, Dmitry M.Sonechkin, Karin HolmgrenNina M. Datsenko & Wibjörn Karlén period of the solar secular activity 120-yrs(VMV-cycle) 240-yrs (de Vries or Suess cycle) period of the barycentric motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system

  12. Bard, E., G. Raisbeck, F. Yiou, and J. Jouzel. 2000.Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides.TELLUS B, vol. 52 (3), pp. 985-992 period of the solar secular activity 120-yrs(VMV-cycle) 240-yrs (de Vries or Suess cycle) period of the barycentric motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system

  13. WAVELET COHERENCE • The wavelet-squared transform coherence is especially useful, when the two phenomena have a strong interaction [C. Torrence and P. Webster, J. Clim. 12, 2679–2690. (1999)].

  14. The Wavelet Coherence spectra show the phase between the phenomena. The arrows at 0o (horizontal right) indicate that both phenomena are in phase, and the arrows at 180o (horizontal left) indicate that they are in anti-phase. • It is very important to point out that these two cases imply a linear relation between the considered phenomena; any other angles indicate that the two phenomena have a non-linear relation and a rather complex one.

  15. Irradiance (gray area)Temperature (continuous line) complex anti-phase phase 120-yrs(VMV-cycle)

  16. Conclusions • I) The solar activity secular minima periodicity is of 120-yrs and this is the sunspot series modulator. • II ) The 120-yrs periodicity could possibly be one of the principal periodicities of magnetic solar activity.

  17. III) The 120-yrs periodicity predict that the following solar secular minima, should be around 2030-2040 yrs and 2160-2170 yrs. • IV) Our preliminary studies of the last 2000 years show close connection between the variation of the global maxima and minima periods of secular solar activity and warming and mini ice age occurred during this period.

  18. V) Such a modulation of the terrestrial temperature may bring unexpected results and consequences to the climatic change in the 21st century that may result in a mini-Ice Age caused by the decrease in solar activity that would begin in 2010 and last about 60 - 80 years.

  19. and yet the Earth is cooling….

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