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Climate Impacts on the Coastal Environment

Climate Impacts on the Coastal Environment. Global Warming:. Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group (JISAO/SMA) University of Washington. The Climate Impacts Group. Elements of the PNW we study: Water resources Salmon Forests Coasts

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Climate Impacts on the Coastal Environment

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  1. Climate Impacts on the Coastal Environment Global Warming: Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group (JISAO/SMA)University of Washington

  2. The Climate Impacts Group Elements of the PNW we study: • Water resources • Salmon • Forests • Coasts Goal: make the region more resilient to climate variations and climate change

  3. Natural Climate Variability (ENSO) (PDO) 1900 2000 1900 2000 University of Washington, JISAO

  4. Two primary patterns of winter/spring climate in the Pacific Northwest

  5. Nature’s “Greenhouse Effect”

  6. Humans are altering the atmosphere • carbon dioxide concentration has increased by ~30% since 1750’s • from a very long term perspective, these changes are enormous

  7. Global warming in the past century

  8. Is Our Climate Changing?Temperature • 113 stations with long records • Almost every station shows warming • Urbanization not a major source of warming 100-year Temperature Trends warmingcooling

  9. Will Warming Continue?

  10. Will Warming Continue?

  11. Will Warming Continue?

  12. Future Climate Change • Climate is changing, and humans are at least partly responsible. • Earth’s average temperature will probably increase by 1.8-6.3°F (1-3.5°C) in the next 100 years. • Other climate changes are likely to accompany this warming (precipitation, storm tracks). • These changes will have both positive and negative consequences.

  13. What Might Climate Change Look Like in the Northwest? • We looked at 7 scenarios of future climate from climate models • Averages of 7 scenarios, compared to 20th century: • 2F warmer by 2020s • 4F warmer by 2050s • Slightly wetter • Winters wetter • Summers ???

  14. The Main Impact: Less Snow April 1 Columbia Basin Snow Extent

  15. Impacts of Hydrologic Changes Less snow, earlier melt means • More water in winter • Less water in summer • Flooding • Irrigation • Salmon • Hydropower • Municipal water Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, OR.

  16. Coastal Issues: Current • Coastal erosion • Ocean shores: development on a shifty beach • El Niño year storm damage and armoring • Landslides • Bluff failures from heavy rainfall • Flooding and inundation

  17. Coastal Issues: Climate Change • Coastal erosion  Rising sea levels / Changing wave climate • Landslides  With increased winter rainfall • Flooding and inundation  Due to sea level rise and increased winter stream flows; Olympia perhaps most vulnerable

  18. Climate Impacts on Sea Levels Several key mechanisms: • seasonal-interannual sea level rise natural annual and decadal variability • land movement tectonic motions • sea level rise thermal expansion and melting icecaps

  19. Natural Sea Level Variability Seasonal-Interannual sea level variations: +/- 1 foot at SF due to persistent winds and coastal ocean temperature changes centimeters centimeters NOAA/PMEL Sea Level Center

  20. El Niño Sea Level Rise Dec 1997-Jan 1998 Sea Level Height Anomalies

  21. Vertical Land Movement • Tectonic forces move the land • Rising sea levels add to the land movement • Current rise: 1.0-2.5 mm/yr • Projected rise: 2.0-8.6 mm/yr

  22. Climate Impacts on Biology Impacts are speculative -- Natural variability (ENSO, PDO) mixed with Global Warming Likely sensitivities: • Changes in streamflow • alters nutrient supply and mixing in estuaries • impacts production and algal blooms (HABs) • Ecosystem changes • invasive species (e.g. cordgrass) • Climate link to Oyster Condition Index?

  23. Upwelling Food Webs in our Coastal Ocean Cool water, weak stratification abundant nutrients, and a productive “subarctic” food-chain Warm stratified ocean, few nutrients, low productivity “subtropical” food web

  24. Are We Prepared for a Changing Climate? “Some people are weatherwise, some are otherwise” -- Ben Franklin

  25. Are We Prepared for a Changing Climate? Natural resource management presently assumes Climate does not change But what if it does?

  26. Becoming Climatewise • Use climate information Requires on-going dialogue between decision-makers, climate scientists, and the general public • Create centralized & adaptable management strategies • Learn from the past

  27. Becoming Climatewise: Water, Salmon, Forests and Coasts • Water: increase supply, decrease demand, increase management flexibility • Salmon: promote biodiversity by increasing healthy and connected habitat • Forests: maintain a full range of biodiversity • Coasts: recognize role of climate variability and change in coastal issues (erosion & flooding)

  28. Conclusions • Climate change likely to significantly affect the pacific northwest • Main impact: reduction in snowcap, summer streamflow • Will exacerbate existing stresses in many cases • Need to retool institutions and government agencies to respond to climate information and to plan for a changed climate • Consider climate a component of any long-term plan

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