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INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

1. INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES. 407-408 Abhishilp Opp.Vishweshwar Mahadev Temple Nr. Keshavbag Party Plot Vastrapur, Ahmedabad-380015 Phone: 079-26730583 , 40086763 Email: oswaldhan@gmail.com. 38. INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN DEBT MARKET. 30.

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INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

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  1. 1 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES 407-408 Abhishilp Opp.Vishweshwar Mahadev Temple Nr. Keshavbag Party Plot Vastrapur, Ahmedabad-380015 Phone: 079-26730583 , 40086763 Email: oswaldhan@gmail.com

  2. 38 INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN DEBT MARKET 30 • Liquid Fund : Expected returns 8.00 to 9.00% • Low Duration Fund : Investment Horizon 3 Months & above Expected returns 8.50 to 8.75% • Short term Income Plan : Investment horizon 1 year & above Expected returns 9 to 9.5% • FMPs: 6 Months, 1year, 2year, 3year FMP available Expected returns 1 year 8.5 – 8.75% 2 year 8.75 – 8.85% 3 year 8.85 – 9%

  3. 39 RECOMMENDATION 31 • If the horizon is 9 months to 1 year short term income plan provides the best investment opportunity. • Short term & Medium term plan with duration of 2-3years provides good investment opportunities. • Accrual income funds having high portfolio yield with average maturities 1 to 2 years can give good returns for investors who doesn’t want to take duration risk averse. • Income Fund and Gilt fund with duration of 6 to 10 years provides attractive investment opportunities and will be beneficiary of falling interest rate scenario. Suitable for investments horizon for 12-18 month and for investors ready to take short term volatility. • The FMP also offers attractive yield if someone wants to lock in fund for specified period.

  4. 40 OUTLOOK FOR DEBT MARKET 32 • Looking at the current economics scenario the RBI may increase repo rate by 25 bps over next 3month . • Short term yield of the curve offers good entry point. • Aggressive investor can invest in the long end of the curve. Currently Yield on 10 year GOI Security has crossed 9% and is very attractive for aggressive investor to invest. • Long term Interest rates will depend on inflation no, fiscal deficit and OMO.

  5. 40 EQUITY MARKET VALUATIONS 32

  6. Why Equities now? - Broad Market Valuations Sensex P/E Ratio Sensex P/B Ratio 29 8 26 7 23 6 5 20 Avg PE Avg PB 4 17 3 14 2 11 1 8 0 Current valuations below 10 year average, despite some stocks trading at very high valuations 7 Source:www.bseindia.com

  7. Why Equities now? - Polarisation of Valuation Defensives vsCyclicals P/E 30.0x Defensives 25.0x 20.0x 15.0x 10.0x Cyclicals 5.0x • In the past, valuation gap between cyclical and defensives have converged • Since 2010, the gap has widened and defensives are trading at high valuations Cyclical - Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials, Industrials, IT, Materials Defensives - Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Telecom, Utilities Source: UBS Securities 8

  8. Identifying Value in the Market P/B S&P BSE Midcap Index 9 10000 9000 8 8000 7 7000 6 6000 5 5000 4 4000 3 3000 2 2000 1 1000 Current valuations close to 2009 lows 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BSE Midcap P/B BSE Midcap • Midcap valuations are currently at 2009 lows. The midcap index rallied from 3300 levels to 8000 levels between 2009-2011. • The increase in book value of the stocks in the midcap index has not been accompanied by increase in valuations. Source:www.bseindia.com 17

  9. OSWAL DHAN PVT LTD Identifying Value in the Market Top 20 performers vs Rest of the market 350 Values rebased to 100 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Top 20 performers Bottom 80 performers BSE100 • The top 20 stocks have trebled, now making up 30% of the BSE100 market cap versus barely 10% in Dec-07 • These stocks continue to outperform, providing gloss to the headline indices like Sensex and Nifty Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies estimates

  10. Why Equities now? - Market Segmented OSWAL DHAN PVT LTD Mid & Small Cap discount to Sensex 100% 90% Mid cap discount to Sensex 80% 70% 60% Small cap discount to Sensex 50% Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 S&P BSE Mid Cap S&P BSE Small Cap Since the last peak in Nov 2010 the Small and Mid cap stocks are trading at a discount to their Large cap counterparts Discount is calculated taking Nov’10 index values as base. Source:www.bseindia.com

  11. Why Equities now? -S&P BSE Sensex & Elections OSWAL DHAN PVT LTD Elections Absolute Appreciation 20% 50% 70% Election Year Date Sensex Appreciation Appreciation Appreciation 21-Jun-91 1361.7 Within 1 year 1991 Within 1 year Within 1 year The bull phase that started in 1991 ended in 1997. 3694.3 Within 2 years 1996 9-May-96 3-Mar-98 3646.0 Within 2 years 1998 Within 2 years 7-Oct-99 4963.1 Within 1 year 1999 13-May-04 5399.5 Within 1 year 2004 Within 2 years Within 2 years 16-May-09 12173.4 Within 1 year 2009 Within 2 years Within 2 years Above chart explains how S&P BSE Sensex has performed post elections. Provided only for reference and understanding of market movement post elections. Nothing in the slide must be construed as future performance of S&P BSE Sensex. Source: www.bseindia.com and Election Commission of India

  12. 42 OUTLOOK FOR EQUITY MARKET 16 • Higher interest cost will impact the earning of corporate over the next two quarters. • Most of the negatives have been discounted by the market. • Market available PE of 15 discount the FY-14 earnings which is reasonable. • Market expected to remain range bound 18,500 -21,000 in short term with not much downside risk barring unexpected events. • Next two quarters will provide excellent investment opportunity in equity market. • Market around 19,000 provide good entry point with horizon of 15-18 months. • Markets are expected to look up from the second half of the current year on back off expected improvement in macro economic fundamentals. • Good time to build equity portfolio through combination of lumpsump and STP.

  13. 45 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS • EQUITY FUNDS • MIDCAP FUNDS • BALANCED FUNDS • MONTHLY INCOME PLAN • SYSTEMATIC INVESTMENT PLAN • PERFORMANCE FROM PEAK OF 2008

  14. 46 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS • EQUITY FUNDS

  15. 47 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS • MIDCAP FUNDS

  16. 48 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS • BALANCED FUNDS

  17. 49 9 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS 21 • MONTHLY INCOME PLAN

  18. 49 9 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS 21 • SIP( Systematic Investment Plan)

  19. 50 PERFORMANCE OF RECOMMENDED FUNDS 22 • PERFORMANCE FROM PEAK OF 2008

  20. 53 Thank You

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