State & County Characteristics: Overview

1. State & County Characteristics:Overview • The basics • State • The general method • July 1, 2000 beginning population • Domestic migration • IRS pre-processing • State domestic migration • Race conversion (4 to 31) • County • The general method • Domestic migration

2. State & County Characteristics:The Basics • State and county population by ASRO • SYA (0 – 84, 85+) by sex, race (31 races), and Hispanic origin (Hispanic, non-Hispanic) • Year-to-year approach to creating time series • Processed in two separate steps • State characteristics • County characteristics

3. State Characteristics:The General Method • Calculate preliminary population estimates • Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population* • Add births, subtract deaths, add net international migration, and add military movement • Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic out-migration* • Calculate proportions • Use proportions to distribute estimates • National ASRO • State age-sex • Convert from 4 to 31 races* * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

4. State Characteristics:July 1, 2000 Beginning Population • Calculate preliminary population estimates • Begin with GUSSIE base • Convert from 31 to 4 races* • Remove GQ population to get HH population • Calculate proportions • Use proportions to distribute previous July 1, 2000 HH estimates • National ASRO • State age-sex • Add GQ population to get resident population * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

5. State Characteristics:July 1, 2000Beginning Population (cont.) • Race conversion: 31 to 4 • Equi-proportional assignment of persons in multi-race categories to single-race categories (31 to 5 categories) • Combine Asian and Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander categories into Asian and Pacific Islander (5 to 4 categories)

6. State Characteristics:Domestic Migration - Overview • Pre-process IRS migration data* • State domestic migration* • Calculate state out-migration • Calculate state in-migration • County domestic migration* • Recalculate interstate in- and out- migration • Distribute interstate migration flows to counties • Calculate intrastate migration rates & migrants • Distribute intrastate migration totals to counties * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

7. State Characteristics:IRS Pre-processing - Overview • Obtain administrative record data • Match across administrative record sources • Assign characteristics to filer and exemptions • Compare Y1 and Y2 FIPS codes • Define migration universe • Tally exemptions by demographic characteristics

8. State Characteristics:Obtain Administrative Record Data • Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040 files • Address in 2002 (Y1) • Address in 2003 (Y2) • Number of exemptions – filer, spouse, child, parent • Social Security Numident File • Collapse records to Census Numident Person Characteristics File (PCF) • File contains modeled age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all persons with an SSN

9. State Characteristics:Match Across Administrative Records • Bureau committed to privacy and confidentiality • Convert SSN on tax records to Protected Identifier Key (PIK) • Match Y1 and Y2 IRS files by filer’s PIK • Match Y1-Y2 IRS file to PCF by filer’s PIK • Convert filer’s return to individual records for filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions on the tax return

10. State Characteristics:Assign ASRO • Assign ASRO for Y1-Y2 matched records that match to the PCF • Age • Filer and spouse exemptions are assigned filer’s age from PCF • Child exemptions are assigned to a 19 and under age category • Parent exemptions are assigned to a 65+ age category

11. State Characteristics:Assign ASRO (cont.) • Sex • Filer is assigned filer’s sex from PCF • Spouse exemption is assigned opposite sex of filer • Child and parent exemptions are assigned sex by random number generator • Race and Hispanic origin • Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s race and Hispanic origin from PCF • Y1 and Y2 State and County FIPS codes • Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s Y1 and Y2 state and county FIPS codes

12. State Characteristics:Compare Y1 and Y2 FIPS Codes • Compare by equivalent geography • Outcomes of comparison • Y1 only • Y2 only • Foreign in- and out-movers • Inter-state movers • County-to-county movers (intra-state) • Non-movers

13. State Characteristics:Define Migration Universe • Exclude records: • where record appears only in Y1 or Y2 file • with a foreign address on either the Y1 or Y2 return • where Y1-Y2 IRS match does not match to PCF

14. State Characteristics:Tallying Exemptions • Three different measures are calculated from exemption data • Inter-state migration rates • Intra-state migration rates • County migration shares • Exemption data come with the following characteristics • Age 0-19, SYA 20-64, 65+ • Sex • Hispanic & non-Hispanic by 1990 race categories • See handout

15. State Characteristics:Domestic Migration - Overview • State domestic out-migration* • State domestic in-migration* • State domestic migration flows* * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

16. State Characteristics:State Domestic Out-migration • Calculate a set of state out migration rates • Out-migration rate = tally #2 / tally #1 (see tally handout) • If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met • Expand to full ASRO distribution • Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole • Smooth the out-migration rates by age and perform final adjustment

17. State Characteristics:State Domestic In-migration • Calculate a set of state-to-state out-migration rates for each state • Out-migration rate = tally #3 / tally #1 (see tally handout) • If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

18. State Characteristics:State Domestic In-migration (cont.) • Calculate a preliminary set of state-specific out-migrants for each state by IRS characteristics • Out-migrants = Out-migration rate for origin-destination state pair * origin state population from previous vintage • Calculate preliminary state in-migrants • State in-migrants = Σ(state out migrants from each other state to destination state)

19. State Characteristics:State Domestic In-migration (cont.) • Sum all preliminary state in-migrant estimates • Calculate each state’s in-migration proportion of the all-state sum [#4] • State in-migration proportion = preliminary state in-migrants / Σ(preliminary state in-migrants) • Expand to full ASRO distribution • Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole • Smooth the in-migration proportions by age and perform final adjustment

20. State Characteristics:State Domestic Migration Flows • Calculate final estimates of out- and in-migrants by state (in the process of estimating the population) • State out-migrants = state out-migration rate * state population at the beginning of the time interval • State in-migrants = state in-proportion * ∑(state out-migrants)

21. State Characteristics:Race Conversion (4 to 31) • Calculate conversion factors for 31 to 4 race conversion from the Census 2000 GUSSIE population • Apply conversion factors to population in each 4-race category to get population in each 31-race category

22. State Characteristics:Summary • Calculate preliminary population estimates • Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population • Add births, subtract deaths, add net international migration, and add military movement • Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic out-migration • Calculate proportions • Use proportions to distribute estimates • National ASRO • State age-sex • Convert from 4 to 31 races