The RobOff framework and software: analysis of alternative land-use options and conservation actions

1. The RobOff framework and software: analysis of alternative land-use options and conservation actions Federico M. Pouzols and Atte Moilanen Conservation Biology Informatics Group Dept. of Biosciences, Univ. Of Helsinki http://cbig.it.helsinki.fi

2. What RobOff is Framework and software for decision-making support Emphasizes: uncertain responses of biodiversity features over time • to different actions • conservation / development / land-use • in different environments (habitats, etc.) • in a robust manner Multi-action allocation problem: best portfolio of actions (amounts of money or area)

3. What RobOff is (2) A tool for optimal allocation of conservation resources (with emphasis on time and uncertainty) An scenario tool Learning & teaching about balance between actions Robust Offsetting, Habitat Restoration, Maintenance and Management Analysis of alternative land-use options

4. What RobOff is not Spatial planning, GIS, maps Population Viability Analysis, stochastic models Simulation / dynamics Connectivity, corridors, etc. But can use / can be combined with

5. RobOff generalfeatures • Multiple actions and habitats (and features/species) • Uncertainty => robust decisions • Time preference (discounting) • dual: ecological & economic • Different environments with specific weights • Different cost models • Comparison of alternative actions • Simple and scorefeatures

6. Basic input: responses How biodiversityfeatures (e.g. species, habitat) respond to actions (per unit of area) x-axis: time frame (planning horizon) y-axis: occurrence value (abundance/representation of a species, condition of a habitat, amount of ecosystem service provided, economic value, human well-being, employment, etc.) Forest: business as usual Forest: build dam -> inundate Forest: restore

7. Responses Specific responses over time to different actions in different habitat types or environments Uncertain, discrete-time

8. Conceptual model: first look

9. Feature • Species • Abundance, probability of occurrence, etc. • Guilds • Habitat quality / suitability • Habitat-hectares • Eggs saved from predators • Ecosystem services • Socio-cultural factors (employment, aesthetics, culture, history etc.) • Important attributes: weight, benefit function

10. Environment • Most basic: habitat • Other factors to split/merge habitats into different environments: • Condition / status • Threats • Ownership • Different degrees of connectivity • Administrative / logistic aspects • Sites • Important attributes: total area, weight

11. Action Or intervention, policy, group of interventions, etc. • Development or conservation • Action “do nothing” always implicit • + multiple alternatives, e.g.: • Development: build, inundate, zone for construction, build dam / block upstream migration • Restore • Educate local community • Educate + no take restriction (bundle) • Set aside mature forest • Set aside clear-cut • Trap and transfer migrating juveniles • Important attributes: cost, area available/feasible

12. Response • Can be specific to a “feature-action-environment” • Same responses can be used for different features in different environments (if it makes sense) • Different approaches to get responses: • Models / simulators • Evidence bases • Experts • In practice: table or csv file with • 3 columns: avg., upper, and lower envelopes • 1 row per time step (discrete-time series)

13. Applications / analysis types • Analysis of uncertainty of conservation outcomes • Analysis of the time perspective • Time preference, discounting, intergenerational equity • Comparison of different intervention scenarios • Reliability of biodiversity offsets. Offsetability • Optimal biodiversity offsetting • Optimal division of resources between actions • Balance alternative land-use options • Extraction of optimal area targets

14. Comments Broad applicability: • conservation planning, habitat management, restoration, biodiversity offsetting, land-use planning… Simplicity: uncertain responses = 3 columns of values Just gathering info and “thinking about it” within this framework helps clarifying problems Flexibility: • Example: a same species/feature can be entered multiple times • Normal (simple) features and scores

15. RobOff • Software + manual + papers

16. Material and resources • Software: • Windows 32/64 bits and GNU/Linux • Web site, manual, teaching material… http://cbig.it.helsinki.fi http://cbig.it.helsinki.fi/software/roboff/