INTRODUCTION

1. INTRODUCTION • My biking experience • 10 trends supporting bicycling • 5 potentially unfavorable factors for the future

2. Trend #1 Medical Advice to Exercise • Doctors urging more people to exercise more • Growing scientific evidence shows health benefits of regular exercise • Particularly effective against cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, and minor emotional/psychological disorders • Biking can be done for transport or recreation

3. Trend #2 People Have More Leisure Time • Objective studies show people have leisure time despite their complaints • One study showed 35 hours of leisure weekly in 2003 compared to 31 hours in 1965 • BLS Time Use Survey showed 3 hours spent on TV; 1/3 hour on exercise in ‘09

4. Trend #3 Changing Laws, Regs & Social Attitudes • Exercise no longer only for young males • Title IX effect in the USA--10 fold increase in school sports participation carrying over to adult women • In the USA 50% of men & 40% of women cycle annually • 20% of US people over 45 and 5% over 65 cycled in ‘09 compared to 11.3% and 4.4% in ‘93

5. Trend # 4 Charity & Other Organized Bike Rides • Charities like the big health foundations organize bike rides to raise money • Good example is the National MS society. 100 rides a year sponsored by local chapters. • Seagull Century on MD’s Eastern Shore--8,300 riders from 39 states & Canada in ‘09

6. Trend #5 Popularity of Exercise Vacations • Bicycle touring, one of the most popular kinds of exercise vacations • Tour companies handle logistics • Great variation in rider accommodations and distances traveled

7. Trend #6 Creation of Rail Trails • 1,600 rail trails in the US covering 19,000 miles with 9,000 more miles planned compared to 200 trails in 1986 • On abandoned rail routes or shared with rail transport • Favorable legal/regulatory climate • Railroads willing to participate

8. Trend #7 Environmentally Favorable Local Transport • Active Transportation for America study: • Active transport could reduce CO2 12-91 millions tons per year • Could reduce auto emissions on the highway due to less congestion • Could cause more auto emission reduction by allowing biking or walking to mass transit

9. Trend #8 More Rider-Friendly Bicycles • Electric bicycles like the Sanyo Eneloop with 250 watt electric motor • Folding bicycles. Xootr Swift packs in a suitcase in 15 minutes • Commuter bikes like the Trek Lime with automatic shifting & coaster brakes • Recumbent bikes to ease bike & neck strain

10. Trend #9 Emerging Bike Infrastructure • Happening gradually in America, quickly in Europe • Dedicated bike lanes (e.g., Amsterdam, DC, Chicago, Portland, OR) • Bike parking facilities (Amsterdam, DC) • Bike rental programs like Zipcar (Paris, DC, Irvine) • Other (e.g., showers & changing facilities)

11. Trend #10 Government Support • $370 million authorization from US Highway Trust Fund for FY’04-’09 • Norway wants 8% of all travel by bicycle in ‘15 compared to 4% in ‘07 • Sweden wants 15% bike travel • EU wants to cut car emissions by having 6% of all travel by bike

12. 5 Potentially Unfavorable Factors • People are slow to adopt healthy lifestyles • Healthful exercise in short periods of time • Coming government fiscal austerity • Infrastructure growth may not keep up with population growth • Less leisure time for some population segments