Project Nexus Modelling costs and benefits

1. Project Nexus Modelling costs and benefits Andrew Wallace, Cesar Coelho Ofgem Project Nexus IA Subgroup 25 July 2012

2. Agenda • Workgroup and Subgroup roles • Methodology/Approach • Step 1 – take-up scenarios • Step 2 – Categories of cost • Step 3 – Categories of benefits • Step 4 – Distributional effects

3. Objectives PN IA – Workgroup role • Identify a methodology to compare costs and benefits of PN (i.e. assess PN net impact), including the distributional impacts • Identify the categories of potential costs and potential benefits for PN • Identify methodology to assess costs and benefits, including the distributional impacts • Quantify each category of costs and benefit (where possible) • Where quantifiable benefits are below the level of costs, use qualitative analysis Objective: Develop a robust assessment of the costs and benefits of the Project Nexus modification proposals to allow the industry and Ofgem to take an informed view on their merits

4. Objectives PNUNC IA Subgroup role • Develop strawman proposals for • methodology • identifying categories of potential costs and potential benefits • Subgroup role is fundamental to guide the discussion at the workgroup level – high risk of delay if strawman proposals are not well developed • Objective: • Establish a clear, transparent and credible methodology, including for how to deal with uncertainty • Drive the workgroup discussion

5. Strawman proposals Methodology • We need to answer three key questions • What are the costs and benefits • eg system, metering, allocation, efficiencies • How are we going to estimate these costs and benefits • eg how allocation benefits will be estimated, what data is needed to assess system costs • How are we going to compare these costs with these benefits • Methodology needs to be consistent to allow robust assessment of impacts • Proposal: NPV, modelling and scenario analysis

6. Strawman proposal - Methodology Modelling and scenario analysis • Step 1: Set out scenarios for take-up of services • All parties will provide data for the same scenarios • Data will be comparable (and therefore, we can add up individual responses for each category of cost/benefit) • It will be possible to compare responses to check the quality of data (eg if parties with similar portfolios in size provide significantly different data) • Step 2: identify categories of costs • Step 3: identify categories of benefits • Step 4: modelling distributional effects

7. Strawman proposal - Methodology Step 1 - Take-up of services • Scenarios – drivers of costs or/and benefits • Take-up of services • Settlements: Daily metered products • AQ/Meter Point Reconciliation: frequency of submission of meter reads • Any other driver?

8. Step 1 - Scenarios Take-up Scenarios - Settlements • The use of settlements products will impact costs and benefits • Two questions: • Aggregate usage of products 1, 2 and 3 • Any differences on cost/benefits between products 1, 2 and 3 l • Scenarios for usage of daily settlements products (1, 2 & 3 in aggregate): Low usage, Medium usage, High usage • Counterfactual: Maintain current functionality

9. Step 1 - Scenarios Take-up Scenarios – AQ & MPR (Product 4) • AQs calculation and MPR processes triggered when meter read is submitted • Frequency of submission of meter reads drives distributional effects • For product 4, does frequency drive costs/benefits too? [increased complexity] • Question: How frequently are meter reads submitted for product 4 • Meter reads scenarios: Low frequency, Medium frequency, High frequency • Counterfactual: Maintain current funtionality

10. Step 1 - Scenarios Steps to design the take-up scenarios Workgroup • Explain and agree the methodology • For settlements: Discuss distributions of costs between products 1&2 and product 3 • For AQs/MPR: Discuss whether costs would change significantly • Ask individual shippers responses on: • Their minimum and maximum take-up, in aggregate, of products 1, 2 and 3 • Their lowest and highest frequency of submission of meter reads • Collate responses and propose three scenarios each for settlements and Aqs/MPR (as discussed above) • Discuss and fine tune scenarios Shippers Workgroup

11. Strawman proposal - Costs Step 2 – Categories of costs • Steps to identify categories of costs • PN Sub-group to have a first stab at discussing categories of costs and setting strawman proposal • PN workgroup do discuss and agree categories of costs relevant for PN implementation • Costs are possibly different for suppliers/shippers and transporters • Costs may be one-off or ongoing

12. Strawman proposal - Benefits Step 3 – Categories of benefits • Steps to identify categories of benefits • PN Sub-group to have a first stab at discussing categories of benefits and setting strawman proposal • PN workgroup do discuss and agree categories of benefits relevant for PN implementation • Benefits are possibly different for suppliers/shippers and transporters • If quantifiable benefits are insufficient when compared to the costs, need to develop approach for assessing qualitative benefits

13. Strawman proposal – Distributional effects Step 4 – Distributional effects • Steps to identify categories of benefits • PN Sub-group to discuss methodology for assessing distributional effects and set out strawman proposal • PN workgroup do discuss and agree methodology • Ask individual organisations for their estimate of the errors • Proposed methodology: • 2 types of error if daily meter reads are not used • Errors in allocation (what sources?) • Errors in reconciliation (what sources?) • Bottom-up approach (zero-sum game between providers, but possibly not between segments of customers) • Assume error for allocation • Assume error for reconciliation

14. Next steps • Develop a detailed project plan for delivery of subgroup and workgroup outputs • PN sub-group to discuss proposals and strawmans • Develop strawman proposals document – explain in detail approach and methodologies, provide definitions and examples where possible • PN workgroup to discuss strawman and agree • methodologies • categories of costs • categories of benefits • Develop consultation questions • Develop consultation document

15. Appendix

16. Step 2 - Costs Supplier one-off costs

17. Step 2 - Costs Supplier ongoing costs

18. Step 2 - Costs Transporters one-off costs

19. Step 2 - Costs Transporters ongoing costs

20. Step 3 - Benefits Supplier benefits

21. Step 3 - Benefits Transporter benefits