Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 April 14, 2015

2. Class Information and News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 • Record of course • Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site • http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • Rood’s Openclimate Tumblr Site

3. Schedule • Presentations • Monday, April 20, 2015 • Auditorium, Room 2048, Space Research Building, North Campus (You need to find it, your self!) • 6:30 – 9:30 PM • Dinner provided • Tuesday, April 21, 2015 • Classroom, 1024 Dana • 10:00 – 11:30 AM • Final documents due (electronic, narrative and presentation) • Tuesday, April 28, 2015 @ 3:30 P.M.

4. Resources and Recommended Reading • Socolow and Pacala, “Stabilization Wedges,” Scientific American, 2006 (link) • Other versions, additional reading • Pacala and Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges,” Science, 2004 (link) • Socolow, “Wedges Reaffirmed,” Climate Central, 2011 (link) • Blog at climateprogress (link)

5. Wedges on the Web • Carbon Mitigation Initiative @ Princeton University

6. Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Validation Consequences Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change Summary Points: Science Correlated Observations CO2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Theory / Empirical Evidence CO2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Prediction Earth Will Warm Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets  Concept of “Forcing” Attribution Observations CO2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels

7. Outline: Class 25, Winter 2015 • Remembering structured problem solving • Mitigation and Adaptation • Anticipatory and Reactive • Individual and Everyone • Mitigation Wedges • What Can I Do?

8. Responses to the Climate Change Problem Policy/ Societal Autonomous/ Individual Anticipatory Reactive Mitigation Adaptation

9. LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. What is short-term and long-term? Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ... ENERGY SECURITY Election time scales CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMY 25 years 0 years 50 years 75 years 100 years

10. LOCAL GLOBAL SPATIAL Managing Climate Complexity WEALTH TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM

11. LOCAL GLOBAL SPATIAL Managing Climate Complexity WEALTH TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM Being Global, Long Term, Wealth connected, degree of difficulty is high

12. Structure of Problem Solving(http://glisaclimate.org/home )

13. Knowledge System / Problem Solving • Recorded lectures and slides (link)

14. Mitigation • Mitigation Wedges • “Practical” Response Space

15. From Lecture on International Policy • Committed to avoiding “dangerous” climate change. • What is dangerous? • Definitions such as • Avoid 2°C global average warming • Keep carbon dioxide ( + other greenhouse gases) to less than 450 ppm equivalent

16. Reality check? • Will we be able to keep the atmosphere to less than 450 ppm CO2 equivalent? • Will we able to keep to less than 2°C global average increase? • Will we avoid dangerous climate change? • What is dangerous climate change? • Have we underestimated of overestimated warming so far?

17. Consider Economics: Stern Report: Influential: Useful for thinking about problem • Draws on recent science which points to ‘significant risks of temperature increases above 5°C under business-as-usual by the early part of the next century’ — other studies typically have focused on increases of 2–3°C. • Treats aversion to risk explicitly. • Adopts low pure time discount rates to give future generations equal weight. • Takes account of the disproportionate impacts on poor regions.

18. Resources and Recommended Reading • Stern Report: Primary Web Page • Stern Report: Executive Summary • Nordhaus: Criticism of Stern Report • Tol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern Report

19. Some carry away messages • Determine what is a tolerable ceiling for carbon dioxide. • Gives cap for a cap and trade system. • Tolerable ceilings have been posed as between 450 and 550 ppm. • Ice sheet melting and sea level? • Oceanic circulation / The Gulf Stream? • Ocean acidification? • Determine a tolerable measure of increased temperature • Copenhagen Accord (2009)  2o C

20. Dangerous climate change? Stern, 2006

21. World 4 Degrees Warmer Stern, 2006

22. World at 450 ppm CO2 ? • We get to emit a trillion tons of carbon to stay below 450 ppm CO2

23. Trillion Tons: Carbon Visuals

24. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through…a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” --Lyndon Johnson Special Message to Congress, 1965 Data and more information

25. Past Emissions Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

26. The Stabilization Triangle Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

27. The Wedge Concept Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

29. Stabilization (2006) Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

30. CO2 stabilization trajectory (2006) • Stabilize at < 550 ppm. Pre-industrial: 275 ppm, current: ~400 ppm. • Need 7 ‘wedges’ of prevented CO2 emissions.

31. (2011) Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

32. Where Do We Sit? • Concept that we can take these actions to limit emissions. • Growing population. • Economic and development imperatives. • Need for more energy. • Technological development. • Societal inertia.

33. My Analysis • Difficult to avoid a world four degrees warmer. • We have, in fact, underestimated the impact of warming. • We have some control over how fast and how far the warming will go. • We are committed to irreversible changes, for example, sea-level rise. • We can “cope” with this. We must.

34. What Can I Do? • Need to be thinking about how to adapt. • How to make our home as robust as possible. • Need to plan • Need to design • Also need to be taking steps to mitigate our emissions • Further we stray from our past climate, the more difficult it is to predict • Possibility of abrupt changes becomes more likely

35. Some Sites With Information • EPA: What You Can Do • Union of Concerned Scientists: What You Can Do About Climate Change • United Nations: Kicking the Habit • U.N. Foundation: Realizing Energy Efficiency • Energy Star: About Energy Star • Energy Star: Standby Energy

36. McKinsey 2007: Large

37. McKinsey 2007

38. Rood Blogs • Barriers • Identifying Barriers • Personal and Public Barriers(Includes references to environmental behavior paper: Hines et al., 1987) • What Can I Do? • Setting Up the Discussion • Organizing and Growing Individual Efforts • Complete List • We Are What We Eat • How Much Does It Cost? (More on diet.)

39. Rood’s List for Influence • Buying to support sustainability • Support companies • Buy to values and standards • Support policies that promote energy conservation and efficiency • Invest in companies in renewable energy • Social responsibility • CERES

40. Rood’s List for Influence • Emergence of societal groups • Community associations • Civic organizations • Interest groups • Local government and school boards • Committees • Volunteering • Appointments • Elected • Education • Advocacy • Resources controlled and influences • Your business • Your farm

41. Schedule • Presentations • Monday, April 20, 2015 • Auditorium, Room 2048, Space Research Building, North Campus (You need to find it, your self!) • 6:30 – 9:30 PM • Dinner provided • Tuesday, April 21, 2015 • Classroom, 1024 Dana • 10:00 – 11:30 AM • Final documents due (electronic, narrative and presentation) • Tuesday, April 28, 2015 @ 3:30 P.M.

42. Summary: Class 25, Winter 2015 • Mitigation: Limiting the warming is possible. • Behavior and practice • Technology and economics • Personal-scale action matter • Adaptation is required • Design:  Importance of sustainable engineering • Planning • Management

43. Outline: Class 25, Winter 2015 • Remembering structured problem solving • Mitigation and Adaptation • Anticipatory and Reactive • Individual and Everyone • Mitigation Wedges • What Can I Do?

44. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN: ENERGY, HEAT EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

45. Sun-Earth System in Balance SUN EARTH PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH The addition to the blanket is CO2 FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

46. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information

47. Medieval warm period • “Little ice age” • Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years. Temperature and CO2: The last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.

48. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System SUN ATMOSPHERE OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) LAND

49. Radiation Balance Figure

50. Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)