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Long Term Study Transmission Results

Long Term Study Transmission Results. Objectives:. ERCOT and ERCOT stakeholders, with the support of a Department of Energy Grant, improved and expanded the existing Long Term Study (LTS) processes. Specifically, the Transmission Analysis component of the LTS seeks to:

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Long Term Study Transmission Results

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  1. Long Term Study Transmission Results

  2. Objectives: ERCOT and ERCOT stakeholders, with the support of a Department of Energy Grant, improved and expanded the existing Long Term Study (LTS) processes. Specifically, the Transmission Analysis component of the LTS seeks to: • Create a repeatable process to identify intra-regional system needs for both reliability and economic efficiency. • Study a full spectrum of scenarios to identify similar and contrasting transmission system needs to facilitate various resource portfolios. • Inform shorter-term study horizons with “least regrets” solutions as study assumptions become more certain. • Procure and customize a tool to identify ancillary service needs for increasing amounts of non-traditional resources.

  3. Agenda • Process Review • Scenario Selection – Transmission Analysis • Base Case Development • Reliability Import Expansion Analysis • Base Case Overloads • Economic Themes / Observed Congestion • Major Findings • Integrating Renewable Energy / KERMIT Analysis

  4. Process Review

  5. Selected Cases for Transmission Analysis ERCOT chose to perform a full transmission analysis for each scenario that modified a resource build, load, or dispatch cost enough to modify transmission system needs.

  6. Scenario Selection - Wind Complete In Progress Omitted from Trans Analysis

  7. Scenario Selection - Load

  8. Scenario Selection – Resource Sites (2032) Business as Usual / Retirements Business as usual

  9. Scenario Selection – Resource Sites (2032) Business as Usual ‘All Technologies’ / Updated Wind Business as Usual – High Nat Gas Price

  10. Scenario Selection - Resource Sites (2032) Drought – No PTC, emission costs, low gas price Drought – No PTC or emission costs

  11. Resource Sites (2032) Drought – PTC, Water Costs, Emissions cost

  12. Base Case Reliability Upgrades (2032)

  13. Transformer Base Case Reliability Upgrades: 2022

  14. Transformer Base Case Reliability Upgrades: 2032

  15. Economic Studies Each economic project selected for analysis targeted scenario-specific opportunities for production cost savings. Reoccurring themes included: Expanded imports into Dallas Expanded imports into Houston Expanded connectivity to the San Antonio 345kV ring

  16. Economic Studies Continued Each economic project selected for analysis targeted scenario-specific opportunities for production cost savings. Reoccurring themes included: Expanded Access to Coastal Wind Expanded connectivity to the Texas Panhandle

  17. Major Findings: Retirements The retirement of legacy gas-fired resources within ERCOT’s urban load centers: • Greatly increases the need for reliability upgrades in and around urban load centers • Accelerates the need for new import paths (most notably in Houston; a new import is required within the ten-year study horizon) • Creates economic opportunities in Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio for transmission expansion.

  18. Major Findings: Beyond 345kV Expanding the ERCOT system beyond 345kV was cost-effective for select scenarios. If high gas prices and/or continuation of the production tax credit for wind persist, then 500kV solutions are cost-effective for the delivery of concentrated renewable energy to major load centers. Select Drought Scenarios yielded similar results.

  19. Major Findings: Extended Drought / Extreme Load Increased system loading coupled with water availability issues threatened the economic viability of existing and potential future thermal units. The net effect accelerated the need and quantity of expanded imports into Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio.

  20. Major Findings: Extended Drought / Extreme Load

  21. Major Findings: Extended Drought / Extreme Load Note: If municipal utilities operating in a vertically integrated structure repower or expand existing urban resources, then transmission import needs will be largely offset.

  22. Major Findings: Beyond CREZ Wind-dominated resource expansion scenarios sited wind in the Texas panhandle beyond the current design capacity of the CREZ System.

  23. Major Findings: Beyond CREZ Multiple scenarios in the Long Term Study suggested that expansive wind development in the Texas Panhandle may threaten steady state stability under certain conditions. Based upon this assessment, the ERCOT Dynamic Studies performed a detailed assessment of LTS findings. If wind development in the Texas Panhandle is comparable or higher than what was modeled in the LTS, then additional exports from the region are needed for steady-state stability. Numerous projects return production cost savings commensurate with their costs for high gas price and environmental scenarios.

  24. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT analysis ERCOT procured a time-series simulation model to assess the adequacy of ancillary services needed to balance portfolios with increasing proportions of renewables.

  25. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Analysis DNV KEMA’s KERMIT model was modified to represent the ERCOT market, complete with existing and probable future resources.

  26. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study Increased wind penetration and diversity of wind sites decreased the frequency of small magnitude net load ramps on a five-minute basis.

  27. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study Increased wind penetration greatly increased the magnitude and frequency of 15-min net load ramps

  28. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study Seldom-occurring high-magnitude net load ramps required a significant increase in seasonal deployment of quick-start / non-spin capacity.

  29. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Observations With increasing penetration of wind; • Large magnitude ramps occurred more frequently. • Small magnitude ramps occurred less frequently. Based upon these observations, ERCOT modeled new ancillary products with complementary ramping characteristics. These products: • Represent online resources or resources with zero-startup time • Include only resources capable of ramping to full load within 5 minutes, and • Are technology neutral.

  30. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study: Scenario 3/8 Results ERCOT calculated a portfolio of ancillaries to maintain equal or better than actual frequency performance.

  31. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study: 20 GW Results

  32. Integrating Renewables / KERMIT Study: 50 GW Results

  33. Review: ERCOT and ERCOT Stakeholders developed a repeatable process to determine: • Reliability-driven transmission system upgrades and economic alternatives across a spectrum of probable resource builds. • Document major findings for use in shorter-term study horizons as resource assumptions become more certain. • Implement a tool and study framework for identifying complementary ancillary service needs for increasing proportions of non-traditional resources

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