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Chapter 9 Probability

Chapter 9 Probability. James A. Van Slyke Azusa Pacific University. Probability . a priori probability Classical probability That which can be deduced from reason alone, prior to experience No data collection or computation is necessary . Probability . a posteriori

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Chapter 9 Probability

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  1. Chapter 9 Probability James A. Van Slyke Azusa Pacific University

  2. Probability • a priori probability • Classical probability • That which can be deduced from reason alone, prior to experience • No data collection or computation is necessary

  3. Probability • a posteriori • “after the fact” or empirical approach • Some data have been collected and the probability is dependent upon calculations on that data • Over time, the a posteriori equations moves toward the a priori prediction

  4. Probability • Probability typically ranges from 0.0 to 1.00 • 1.00 = event is certain • 0.0 = event will not occur • Probability may also be expressed in percents • Chances in 100 – 20 in 100 or 20%

  5. Addition Rule • For two possible events (A and B), the probability is equal to:

  6. Addition Rule • Events are mutually exclusive if: • Both events cannot occur together • If the occurrence of one precludes the occurrence of the other • Probability of both events happening together is zero – p (A and B) = 0 • Simplifies the addition rule • p (A or B) = p (A) + p (B)

  7. Multiplication Rule • Joint or successive occurrence of two events, usually for one draw • Probability of A and B is equal to the probability of the occurrence of A times B given A has already occurred • With or without replacement

  8. Multiplication Rule • For independent events • If the occurrence of one has no effect on the occurrence of the other • = p (A) p (B)

  9. Probability of Continuous Variables • Continuous variables may be understood in a normal distribution of scores • Must transforms scores into z scores • Compare area in a particular portion of the distribution to the overall distribution

  10. Homework • Questions 13, 14 abd, 15abc, 16abc, 18 24, 25

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