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PANORAMA FINANCIERO ECON MICO REP BLICA DE PANAM

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PANORAMA FINANCIERO ECON MICO REP BLICA DE PANAM

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    1. PANORAMA FINANCIERO ECON�MICO REP�BLICA DE PANAM� David Saied Director de Pol�ticas P�blicas - MEF

    2. TENDENCIAS ECON INTERNACIONALES Y SUS POSIBLES EFECTOS SOBRE NUESTRA ECONOM�A

    3. LA GR�FICA MUESTRA QUE NORMALMENTE EL CRECIMIENTO ECON�MICO PANAME�O SE HA VISTO NEGATIVAMENTE AFECTADO CUANDO LA RESERVA FEDERAL HA AUMENTADO SUS TASAS DE INTER�S LA GR�FICA MUESTRA QUE NORMALMENTE EL CRECIMIENTO ECON�MICO PANAME�O SE HA VISTO NEGATIVAMENTE AFECTADO CUANDO LA RESERVA FEDERAL HA AUMENTADO SUS TASAS DE INTER�S

    4. Deficit Cuenta Corriente R�cord - EUA The economic malaise caused by U.S. record current account deficit and record debt will not be cured anytime soon. This is the main reason why the dollar has been falling. The rise in interest rates might help the Dollar but it will most likely stifle US economic growth. On the other hand, if Greenspan does not raise rates high enough, inflation, caused in great part due to the increased money supply (due to the Fed easing), will not be curbed, and the Dollar will remain low or fall even further. Raising rates will slow down the US economy and will possible create a recession. US fundamentals do not look good, specially since the government is not taking strong measures to curb spending and reduce its fiscal deficit. The economic malaise caused by U.S. record current account deficit and record debt will not be cured anytime soon. This is the main reason why the dollar has been falling. The rise in interest rates might help the Dollar but it will most likely stifle US economic growth. On the other hand, if Greenspan does not raise rates high enough, inflation, caused in great part due to the increased money supply (due to the Fed easing), will not be curbed, and the Dollar will remain low or fall even further. Raising rates will slow down the US economy and will possible create a recession. US fundamentals do not look good, specially since the government is not taking strong measures to curb spending and reduce its fiscal deficit.

    5. D�lar v. Euro

    6. Exceso de Euros On this score between 1994 to 2004 the Euro-zone money printer has been working much faster than its American counterpart (see chart). In other words, money growth in the Euro-zone relative to the growth of real goods and services has been much larger than in the US. This indicates that the Euro is due to a fall in value against the dollar. The recent fall of the Dollar vs. Euro has been mostly caused by the drop in value of the dollar vs. all other currencies and due to the current account deficit depicted formerly.On this score between 1994 to 2004 the Euro-zone money printer has been working much faster than its American counterpart (see chart). In other words, money growth in the Euro-zone relative to the growth of real goods and services has been much larger than in the US. This indicates that the Euro is due to a fall in value against the dollar. The recent fall of the Dollar vs. Euro has been mostly caused by the drop in value of the dollar vs. all other currencies and due to the current account deficit depicted formerly.

    7. PERSPECTIVAS CREDITICIAS

    8. Que han dicho las Calificadoras y Bancos de Inversi�n sobre Panam� S&P: ��la perspectiva estable refleja las mejoras esperadas en el d�ficit fiscal del gobierno y en la din�mica de la deuda luego de la aprobaci�n de la reciente reforma fiscal y el prospecto de una reforma a la CSS.� 18 DE FEBRERO, 2005 Credit Suisse/First Boston: �El programa fiscal est� bien encarrilado. Nueva informaci�n sobre la contabilidad fiscal apoya nuestra opini�n de que el nuevo equiopo econ�mico ve con seriedad el mejoramiento de las finanzas p�blicas. El gobierno ha reconocido cietos pasivos, ha realizado mejoras significativas en su posici�n de cuentas por pagar, y ha adoptado pr�cticas contables transparentes, reconocidas internacionalmente. Nos mantenemos muy positivos sobre la perspectiva de Panam� a mediano plazo.� 16 DE MARZO, 2005 Fitch: ��se ha visto una fuerte recuperaci�n econ�mica y los esfuerzos de la nueva administraci�n para fortalecer las finanzas p�blicas, seg�n la pronta aprobaci�n de la reforma fiscal�y mejoras en transparencia fiscal.� 8 DE ABRIL, 2005

    9. Riesgo Pa�s Panam�

    12. ECONOM�A PANAME�A FACTORES INTERNOS ACTUAL Y PROYECCIONES

    13. Crec PIB por Sector

    14. Proyecci�n de Crecimiento Mainly due to interest rate tightening.Mainly due to interest rate tightening.

    15. Empleo: Sectores Principales

    18. Finanzas P�blicas Fuentes y Usos 2004 ....

    19. Cambio en Deuda P�blica 2004 Main increase attributed to : $600 million prefund $208 million in domestic Treasury Notes Financing sources for 2004 were predominantly from public institutions for up to US$461.0 million, mainly Banco Nacional de Panam�. Main increase attributed to : $600 million prefund $208 million in domestic Treasury Notes Financing sources for 2004 were predominantly from public institutions for up to US$461.0 million, mainly Banco Nacional de Panam�.

    22. NFPS Fiscal deficit for 2005 expected to close at 3.6% Borrowing needs from capital markets is US$953 million International capital markets US$ 600 million Domestic capital markets US$ 83 million Out of the remaining US$270 million borrowing needs, an estimate of US$118 million represents Treasury note rollover issue with placed among government institutions As of today it represents a comfortable positionNFPS Fiscal deficit for 2005 expected to close at 3.6% Borrowing needs from capital markets is US$953 million International capital markets US$ 600 million Domestic capital markets US$ 83 million Out of the remaining US$270 million borrowing needs, an estimate of US$118 million represents Treasury note rollover issue with placed among government institutions As of today it represents a comfortable position

    23. Saneamiento de las Finanzas P�blicas Services sectors are � Canal, Ports, Colon Free Zone, Tourism The agro and industrial sector reflect low growth Drawbacks Last 5 yrs up to 2003 on average real growth has being 2.7%, even though in 2004 growth was 6.2% 40% of the population is poor Higher income individuals perceive 40 times more, than poor people vs 10 times more in develop countries Salaried employees level remains constant through the last four years, informal labor has grown through the last few years. Negative savings of NFPS In 2004 is B/ 240.0 Millions Services sectors are � Canal, Ports, Colon Free Zone, Tourism The agro and industrial sector reflect low growth Drawbacks Last 5 yrs up to 2003 on average real growth has being 2.7%, even though in 2004 growth was 6.2% 40% of the population is poor Higher income individuals perceive 40 times more, than poor people vs 10 times more in develop countries Salaried employees level remains constant through the last four years, informal labor has grown through the last few years. Negative savings of NFPS In 2004 is B/ 240.0 Millions

    24. Saneamiento de Finanzas P�blicas -Seguro Social Principales temas de Reforma a la CSS Actualmente, flujos anuales financieros negativos Status quo implica cero reservas en el 2012 Administraci�n y Sistema de salud ineficiente Cambios Potenciales Mejora en la factibilidad financiera a largo plazo del sistema Mejoras en la coordinaci�n del sistema de salud Administraci�n eficiente del portafolio Eficacia y efectividad de la administraci�n SOURCE CSS Negative/ financial flows of $60 million Improve health coordination between Health Ministry and CSS Portfolio management to achieve returns similar to Trust Fiduciary Fund Improved investment strategy with Banco Nacional de Panama on average estimated returns of 4.98% for reserves from previous 1.0 % SOURCE CSS Negative/ financial flows of $60 million Improve health coordination between Health Ministry and CSS Portfolio management to achieve returns similar to Trust Fiduciary Fund Improved investment strategy with Banco Nacional de Panama on average estimated returns of 4.98% for reserves from previous 1.0 %

    25. Cuentas x Pagar B/. 503.1 Millones - 1 Sep 04 B/. 148.7 Millones - 31 Dic 04 B/. 34.8 Millones - 14 Mar 05

    26. Ingresos 2005 B/.490.2 Millones 1er Trimestre B/. 26.3 Millones por encima de Presupuesto (+5.7%) MARZO: ISR Personas Jur�dicas +11.5M ISR Planillas +9.5M

    27. SECTORES ESTRAT�GICOS Y PROYECTOS 2005-2009

    28. TLC ES IMPORTANTE

    29. Expansi�n del Canal Puede cambiar la estructura de nuestra econom�a

    30. ACCIONES EN OTRAS �REAS 2005-2009 PROGRAMA COMPITE Y REFORMAS UTPP: DESREGULACION ELIMINAR BARRERAS ACCESO A MERCADOS (REDUCIR MONOPOLIOS/OLIGOPOLIOS) REFORMA JUDICIAL ++ ARBITRAJE REDUCIR GASTO P�BLICO & LOGRAR GRADO DE INVERSION ATTRACCION DE INVERSIONES FORMACI�N DE CONGLOMERADOS

    32. Singapur Exportaciones 1960 Caucho Pesca Productos Primarios

    34. COMPITE PANAM� PROGRAMA ACT�A EN 2 NIVELES:

    35. CONGLOMERADOS DE COMPITE (a la fecha)

    36. TRANSPORTE Y LOG�STICA AREA CLUSTER 1

    39. TURISMO AREA CLUSTER 2

    40. TURISMO: POLOS CON MAYOR POTENCIAL

    41. AGRO-INDUSTRIA AREA DE CLUSTER 3

    46. FUTURO AGRO: ENFOCADO EN TR�PICO SAND�A MEL�N PI�A �AME YUCA NONI MARA��N MANGO CARNE Y GANADO CAF� ORG�NICO PRODUCTOS ORG�NICOS Y GOURMETS

    47. TECNOLOG�A Y TELECOMUNICACIONES AREA DE CLUSTER 4

    49. PANORAMA FINANCIERO ECON�MICO REP�BLICA DE PANAM� �MUCHAS GRACIAS! David Saied Director de Pol�ticas P�blicas - MEF

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