Measuring Progress in Conflict Environments MPICE

1. Measuring Progress in Conflict Environments (MPICE) ON TOP: LOGOS OF THE ORGANIZATIONS THAT DEVELOPED MPICE ON BOTTOM: ORGANIZATIONS THAT FUNDED THE EFFORT: STATE AND DODON TOP: LOGOS OF THE ORGANIZATIONS THAT DEVELOPED MPICE ON BOTTOM: ORGANIZATIONS THAT FUNDED THE EFFORT: STATE AND DOD

2. OVERVIEW I WILL BRIEFLY DESCRIBE THE PURPOSE OF MPICE, HOW IT IS STRUCTURED, AND CONCLUDE WITH SOME THOUGHTS ON THE RECURRING CHALLENGES THAT IMPEDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE MEASURES FOR STABILIZATION. I WILL BRIEFLY DESCRIBE THE PURPOSE OF MPICE, HOW IT IS STRUCTURED, AND CONCLUDE WITH SOME THOUGHTS ON THE RECURRING CHALLENGES THAT IMPEDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE MEASURES FOR STABILIZATION.

3. Purpose of MPICE: Measuring Conflict Transformation MPICE IS INTENDED TO MEASURE PROGRESS TOWARD STABILIZATION. THIS IS NOT THE SAME AS DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST QUESTION TO ANSWER, THEREFORE, IS HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH? HOW CAN WE TELL WHEN STABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE? HOW SHOULD WE CONCEIVE OF AN END STATE? THE MPICE FRAMEWORK IS DESIGNED TO MEASURE CONFLCIT TRANSFORMATION WHAT IS CONFLCIT TRANSFORMATION? A SUCCESSFULTRANSITION FROM WAR TO PEACE ENTAILS TWO SIMULTANEOUS PROCESSES: DIMINISHING THE MEANS AND MOTIVATIONS THAT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT IN A PARTICULAR SOCIETY WHILE NURTURING INSTITUTIONS (FORMAL AND INFORMAL) THAT PROVIDE PEACEFUL ALTERNATIVES FOR RESOLUTION OF DISPUTES, ESPECIALLY THE COMPETITIVE PURSUIT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ASPIRATIONS. OTHER TERMS THAT MIGHT BE USED FOR INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE ARE �MITIGATORS OF CONFLICT� OR RESILIENCE. PEACE BECOMES VIABLE WHEN THERE IS A CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FACTORS: THE DYNAMICS THAT FUEL CONFLICT AND THE MECHANISMS THAT RESOLVE IT PEACEFULLY. VIABILITY DOES NOT MEAN EXIT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE WITHOUT SOME FORM OF SAFEGUARD AND CONTINUING INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENT, THE PROCESS WILL NOT BE SUSTAINABLE. VIABLE PEACE IS THE POINT WHERE THE LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT -- MEASURED IN TERMS OF RESOURCE EXPENDITURES-- IS SUSTAINABLE OVER THE LONGER TERM. WHERE DID THIS CONCEPT COME FROM: QVP PUBLISHED IN 2005 CONFLCIT TRANSFORMATION ADOPTED BY S/CRS AS THE BASIS FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING WE WERE ASKED TO DEVELOP A METRICS FRAMEWORK IN SHORT MPICE IS A METRICS system designed to measure outcomes in transitions from war to peace.MPICE IS INTENDED TO MEASURE PROGRESS TOWARD STABILIZATION. THIS IS NOT THE SAME AS DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST QUESTION TO ANSWER, THEREFORE, IS HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH? HOW CAN WE TELL WHEN STABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE? HOW SHOULD WE CONCEIVE OF AN END STATE? THE MPICE FRAMEWORK IS DESIGNED TO MEASURE CONFLCIT TRANSFORMATION WHAT IS CONFLCIT TRANSFORMATION? A SUCCESSFULTRANSITION FROM WAR TO PEACE ENTAILS TWO SIMULTANEOUS PROCESSES: DIMINISHING THE MEANS AND MOTIVATIONS THAT ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT IN A PARTICULAR SOCIETY WHILE NURTURING INSTITUTIONS (FORMAL AND INFORMAL) THAT PROVIDE PEACEFUL ALTERNATIVES FOR RESOLUTION OF DISPUTES, ESPECIALLY THE COMPETITIVE PURSUIT OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ASPIRATIONS. OTHER TERMS THAT MIGHT BE USED FOR INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE ARE �MITIGATORS OF CONFLICT� OR RESILIENCE. PEACE BECOMES VIABLE WHEN THERE IS A CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FACTORS: THE DYNAMICS THAT FUEL CONFLICT AND THE MECHANISMS THAT RESOLVE IT PEACEFULLY. VIABILITY DOES NOT MEAN EXIT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE WITHOUT SOME FORM OF SAFEGUARD AND CONTINUING INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENT, THE PROCESS WILL NOT BE SUSTAINABLE. VIABLE PEACE IS THE POINT WHERE THE LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT -- MEASURED IN TERMS OF RESOURCE EXPENDITURES-- IS SUSTAINABLE OVER THE LONGER TERM. WHERE DID THIS CONCEPT COME FROM: QVP PUBLISHED IN 2005 CONFLCIT TRANSFORMATION ADOPTED BY S/CRS AS THE BASIS FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING WE WERE ASKED TO DEVELOP A METRICS FRAMEWORK IN SHORT MPICE IS A METRICS system designed to measure outcomes in transitions from war to peace.

4. Components of MPICE DOWNSELECT: WHAT GOALS ARE BEING SOUGHT? WHAT IS SALIENT TO ACHIEVING THE GOALS IN A GIVEN ENVIRONMENT? (EG, IN EL SAL, UNDERGROUND ECON ACTIVITY WAS NOT A MAJOR FACTOR) TAILORING: HOW TO WORD THE SPECIFIC MEASURES TO MATCH THE CONTEXT (VIOLENT ARMED GROUPS IN HAITI MEANT GANGS; IN AFGHANISTAN WARLORDS AND TALIBAN) CAN THE DATA REQUIRED BE COLLECTED? IF NOT USE A DIFFERENT METHODOLOGY; THAT�S ONE REASON SO MANY MEASURS ARE PROVIDED. DOWNSELECT: WHAT GOALS ARE BEING SOUGHT? WHAT IS SALIENT TO ACHIEVING THE GOALS IN A GIVEN ENVIRONMENT? (EG, IN EL SAL, UNDERGROUND ECON ACTIVITY WAS NOT A MAJOR FACTOR) TAILORING: HOW TO WORD THE SPECIFIC MEASURES TO MATCH THE CONTEXT (VIOLENT ARMED GROUPS IN HAITI MEANT GANGS; IN AFGHANISTAN WARLORDS AND TALIBAN) CAN THE DATA REQUIRED BE COLLECTED? IF NOT USE A DIFFERENT METHODOLOGY; THAT�S ONE REASON SO MANY MEASURS ARE PROVIDED.

5. Organization of MPICE BASED ON THE USIP FRAMEWORK FOR SOCIETIES EMERGING FROM CONFLICT ALL OF THESE ARE INTERDEPENDENT: ROL DEPENDS ON THE CAPACITY OF THE GOVERNMENT TO COLLECT REVENUE TO PAY LIVING WAGES FOR POLICE, JUDGES, ETC METRICS FOR RULE OF LAW SHOULD TAKE THESE INTERDEPENDENCIES INTO ACCOUNT BASED ON THE USIP FRAMEWORK FOR SOCIETIES EMERGING FROM CONFLICT ALL OF THESE ARE INTERDEPENDENT: ROL DEPENDS ON THE CAPACITY OF THE GOVERNMENT TO COLLECT REVENUE TO PAY LIVING WAGES FOR POLICE, JUDGES, ETC METRICS FOR RULE OF LAW SHOULD TAKE THESE INTERDEPENDENCIES INTO ACCOUNT

6. Organization of MPICE 50 GOALS: ANY GOAL THAT MIGHT BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTERVENTION INTO AN INTERNAL CONFLICT 150 INDICATORS: ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS. HOW WOULD YOU KNOW IF THIS FACTOR SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. PART OF THE BASELINE ASSESSMENT BEFORE INTERVENING WHAT BEHAVIOR, ATTITUDES, OR BELIEFS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH PROGRESS TOWARD THAT GOAL 550 MEASURES ONLY ONE IS NECESSARY, BUT IT MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE TO GATHER THE DATA FOR A PREFERRED MEASURE SO ALTERNATIVES ARE PROVIDED. IF MULTIPLE METHODOLOGIES ARE USED, AND THE RESULTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER, THIS PROVIDES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE VALIDITY OF THE RESULTS 50 GOALS: ANY GOAL THAT MIGHT BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTERVENTION INTO AN INTERNAL CONFLICT 150 INDICATORS: ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS. HOW WOULD YOU KNOW IF THIS FACTOR SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. PART OF THE BASELINE ASSESSMENT BEFORE INTERVENING WHAT BEHAVIOR, ATTITUDES, OR BELIEFS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH PROGRESS TOWARD THAT GOAL 550 MEASURES ONLY ONE IS NECESSARY, BUT IT MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE TO GATHER THE DATA FOR A PREFERRED MEASURE SO ALTERNATIVES ARE PROVIDED. IF MULTIPLE METHODOLOGIES ARE USED, AND THE RESULTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER, THIS PROVIDES GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE VALIDITY OF THE RESULTS

7. Rule of Law Sector ASK RIGHT QUESTIONS? IS THE LEGAL SYSTEM PART OF THE PROBLEM OR PART OF THE SOLUTION? IS THE PROBLEM A LACK OF CAPACITY OR ABUSE OF POWER? ASK RIGHT QUESTIONS? IS THE LEGAL SYSTEM PART OF THE PROBLEM OR PART OF THE SOLUTION? IS THE PROBLEM A LACK OF CAPACITY OR ABUSE OF POWER?

8. Rule of Law Goals EQUALITY BEFORE THE LAW IS THE ANSWER TO IMPUNITY RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS IS AN ANTIDOTE TO INJUSTICE JUDICIAL INDEP AND GOVT ACCOUNTABILITY COUNTERACT CRIMINALIZATION OF THE STATE EQUALITY BEFORE THE LAW IS THE ANSWER TO IMPUNITY RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS IS AN ANTIDOTE TO INJUSTICE JUDICIAL INDEP AND GOVT ACCOUNTABILITY COUNTERACT CRIMINALIZATION OF THE STATE

9. Rule of Law Indicator TAILORING: DEFINE WHICH POLITICALLY MOTIVATED CRIMES ARE RELEVANT IN THE GIVEN CONTEXTTAILORING: DEFINE WHICH POLITICALLY MOTIVATED CRIMES ARE RELEVANT IN THE GIVEN CONTEXT

10. Rule of Law Indicator and Measures

11. Data Collection Methodologies EXAMPLES: perceptions are measured by surveys; power generation output by statistics; hate speech by CA; performance/corruption of an institution by expert knowledge Content analysis (CA): Surveys publications to gauge dynamics Expert Knowledge (EK): Assemble experts to conduct tailored/focused assessment Quantitative Data (QD): Analysis of quantitative data;Limited availability in stabilization environments Survey/Polling Data (S/PD): Conduct of public opinion surveysEXAMPLES: perceptions are measured by surveys; power generation output by statistics; hate speech by CA; performance/corruption of an institution by expert knowledge Content analysis (CA): Surveys publications to gauge dynamics Expert Knowledge (EK): Assemble experts to conduct tailored/focused assessment Quantitative Data (QD): Analysis of quantitative data;Limited availability in stabilization environments Survey/Polling Data (S/PD): Conduct of public opinion surveys

12. Challenges POLITICIZATION: AFFECTS THE MEASURES THAT ARE SELECTED AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS. USG REFUSED TO USE METRICS FOR IRAQ SURGE SOLUTION: COULD KEEP RESULTS SECRET; BETTER TO ESTABLISH CORE SET OF METRICS WRONG OBJECTIVES/GOALS: MANDATES ARE COMPROMISES THAT MAY NOT REFLECT THE REAL ISSUES OR IDENTIFY WHAT REALLY NEEDS TO BE DONE TO RESOLVE A CONFLCIT (BOSNIA). SOLUTION: PROPER ASSESSMENT; ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS (EG IS LEGAL SYSTEM PART OF THE PROBLEM OR PART OF THE SOLUTION? (SEE INDICATORS) ATTRIBUTION: MPICE IS NOT FOR EVALUATING PROGRAMS; IS FOR EVALUATING STRATEGIES. SOLUTION: IS CONFLICT BEING TRANSFORMED OR NOT (IS GAP BETWEEN DRIVERS AND INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY NARROWING OR NOT)? NEED TO KNOW IF ENDS/GOALS ARE CORRECT; IF THEORY OF CHANGE IS RIGHT; IF HAVE ADEQUATE RESOURCES THEORY OF CHANGE: IS AGREEMENT POSSIBLE ON A THEORY OF CHANGE? (IS CONFLICT CAUSED BY POVERTY?) PET ROCKS: WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBILITY TO COURTHOUSES? SOLUTION: NOT NEEDED FOR EVALAUTION OF GOALS ROLE OF LOCALS: WHAT IF THE POLITICIANS ARE THE PROBLEM AND THEIR TRANSFORMATION IS WHAT YOU NEED TO MEASURE? SOLUTION: USE SEPARATE METRICS TIMEFRAMES: WHAT IS THE LAG TIME BETWEEN THE COMPLETION OF PROJECTS AND THE CHANGE IN BEHAVIOR OR ATTITUDE? A MATTER OF ANALYSISPOLITICIZATION: AFFECTS THE MEASURES THAT ARE SELECTED AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS. USG REFUSED TO USE METRICS FOR IRAQ SURGE SOLUTION: COULD KEEP RESULTS SECRET; BETTER TO ESTABLISH CORE SET OF METRICS WRONG OBJECTIVES/GOALS: MANDATES ARE COMPROMISES THAT MAY NOT REFLECT THE REAL ISSUES OR IDENTIFY WHAT REALLY NEEDS TO BE DONE TO RESOLVE A CONFLCIT (BOSNIA). SOLUTION: PROPER ASSESSMENT; ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS (EG IS LEGAL SYSTEM PART OF THE PROBLEM OR PART OF THE SOLUTION? (SEE INDICATORS) ATTRIBUTION: MPICE IS NOT FOR EVALUATING PROGRAMS; IS FOR EVALUATING STRATEGIES. SOLUTION: IS CONFLICT BEING TRANSFORMED OR NOT (IS GAP BETWEEN DRIVERS AND INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY NARROWING OR NOT)? NEED TO KNOW IF ENDS/GOALS ARE CORRECT; IF THEORY OF CHANGE IS RIGHT; IF HAVE ADEQUATE RESOURCES THEORY OF CHANGE: IS AGREEMENT POSSIBLE ON A THEORY OF CHANGE? (IS CONFLICT CAUSED BY POVERTY?) PET ROCKS: WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBILITY TO COURTHOUSES? SOLUTION: NOT NEEDED FOR EVALAUTION OF GOALS ROLE OF LOCALS: WHAT IF THE POLITICIANS ARE THE PROBLEM AND THEIR TRANSFORMATION IS WHAT YOU NEED TO MEASURE? SOLUTION: USE SEPARATE METRICS TIMEFRAMES: WHAT IS THE LAG TIME BETWEEN THE COMPLETION OF PROJECTS AND THE CHANGE IN BEHAVIOR OR ATTITUDE? A MATTER OF ANALYSIS