Current/Future Directions for Air Force Space Weather

1. Current/Future Directions for Air Force Space Weather Dr. Joel B. Mozer Battlespace Environment Division Space Vehicles Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory

2. AFRL Mission Leading the discovery, development, and integration of affordable technologies for our air, space and cyberspace force. It’s not just about the science……it’s about leadership in S&T

3. Space Weather Research at AFRL • Why is the Air Force interested in Space Weather? • What is the current state of Space Weather within the AF? • What does the future look like? Leading the nation for forecasting the Space Environment

4. Precision Strike Weather Space Services Space assets are pervasive in civilian and defense services Communications ISR Navigation

5. Why is the AF interested in SWx? • Satellite Operations • Rapid anomaly assessment – was it a bug, the environment, or the enemy? • Protection and mitigation important • Satellite Design • How much shielding? • How long of a lifetime? • Space Situational Awareness • Enabling good decisions based on good knowledge of battlespace • The Ionosphere • Impacts many RF-based systems communicating through, or across it • GPS, Satellite Communication, HF Communication, etc. Space Weather Impacts Nearly Every AF Mission!

6. Hazards of Space EnvironmentSatellite Systems • Vacuum welding • UV damage • Sputtering • Corrosiveness of atomic oxygen • Plasma-induced charging • Micrometeoroids • Fluctuating magnetic fields • Energetic charged particles / radiation • Neutral atmosphere drag • Solar radio noise • Debris / collisions • Ionosphere (ground communications)

7. Satellite Communications • Development of SATCOM systems • Broad trade space (bandwidth, coverage, cost, survivability, security) • Ionospheric scintillation very important • UHF/VHF most affected • Equatorial regions most affected High Impact Med Low

8. What is the current state of SWx? • Environmental monitoring • Space-based: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) • Ground-based: Solar Electro Optical Network (SEON) • Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) – 4 telescopes worldwide • Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) – 4 observatories, • Civilian (non AF) assets: ACE, LASCO, etc. • Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) • Ingests data • Runs assimilative and forecast models (relatively primitive) • Produces forecasts & system impact products • Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) • Assesses environment • Tasks satellites • Satellite Design Centers • Use standard empirical models of radiation environments • Often engineer around Space Weather effects (at high cost) Space Weather Lags Tropospheric Weather by 30 years!

9. Vision: Dynamic data-driven models to provide products with real military utility delivered to warfighter Space Weather Forecasting10-year Vision TroposphericWx Forecasting Space Wx Forecasting • Currently in the era of specification • Climatology for satellite design • Post-anomaly resolution • Predictive decision aids increasingly required • More dependence on space • More sensitivity to environmental effects • Lots of data! • Robust operational numerical weather prediction • Impacts well known • Culture of considering weather effects (e.g., ATOs) • Infrastructure to support rapid data dissemination 24-hr fcst of 500mb winds/clouds over SW Asia

10. Space WeatherAFSPC Vision

11. Covering all the pieces of a very complex system! Sun-to-Mud CouplingState of the Science • Solar Interior • MHD dynamics • Emerging magnetic flux • Backside imaging (helioseismology) • Photosphere & Chromosphere • Mag. Field • Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) • Flares / Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) • Coronal holes / solar wind • Radio Bursts • X-ray/EUV emissions • Heliosphere • Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) • Solar Wind • Shocks/SEPs • CMEs • Magnetosphere • IMF • Magnetic storms/substorms • Auroral zones/ring currents • Polar Cap Potential • Radiation Belts • South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) • Thermosphere & Ionosphere • Plasma bubbles / equatorial anomalies • Scintillation / density fluctuation • Neutral winds • Travelling iono. disturbances • UV Heating • Ion chemistry • Bulk ionosphere • Legend • 6.1 – TRL 1-2 • 6.2 – TRL 3-4 • 6.3 – TRL 5-6 Driven/Compliant System Persistent System

12. Examples of AFRL Space Weather Technology Projects

13. Solar Disturbance Prediction And Impacts On DoD Systems Objective: Develop full-range of sensors, models & products to provide reliable specification and prediction of solar and interplanetary disturbances and the hazards they pose to DoD missions and operations Technology Challenges • Large-aperture telescope design and construction • Remote sensing of solar & coronal vector magnetic fields and electric currents • Energy storage and release mechanisms in large magnetic plasmas • Characterization of coronal mass ejections (size, density, magnetic configuration, etc.) Advanced Tech. Solar Telescope (ATST) Improved Solar Optical Observing Network (ISOON) Space Weather starts a the Sun. Understanding solar disturbances is required to achieve 72-120 hour forecasts of SWx at Earth.

14. SMEI phenomenally successful first Heliospheric Imager Over 100 publications to date! Space Sensing TechnologySolar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) Comet Tail Disconnects Result of Interplanetary CME passage • SMEI Achievements/Milestones • Launched January 2003 • First Halo Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) ob • Tomographic measurements and 3-D reconstruction • Very high altitude aurora observations • Gamma ray burst comparison study • Solar wind drag model and Ulysses data comparison • Space weather evaluation for Earth-directed ICMEs • Eclipsing binary stellar studies • ICME observations at Mars • Solar wind drag, driving Lorentz Force and model comparison • Comet tail “disruption event” discovery • Obs of ICMEs not connected with CMEs in coronagraphs • Phenomenological model of ICME structure/kinematics Comet LINEAR (C/2002 T7) ICME

15. The Tappin-Howard CME Propagation Model CME/ICME: 30 November-05 December, 2004 Projected arrival time at ACE: LASCO projection: 13:30 UT on 4 December. TH Model projection: 07:15 UT on 5 December. ACE Shock Projected LASCO Actual arrival time at ACE: 06:56 UT on 5 December. SMEI Model So the Tappin-Howard Model predicted an arrival time that was just 19 minutes later than the actual time! LASCO Data

16. Ionospheric Impacts On DoD Systems SatCom/GPS Satellite Irregularities In ionosphere Scintillation, Comm dropouts, GPS loss of lock Receiver Objective: Develop & deploy sensors, models & products to specify, forecast & mitigate ionospheric disturbances & their impacts on DoD RF systems Systems Impacted by Scintillation AF has no capability to forecast link outages caused by ionospheric scintillation

17. Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) • Milestones accomplished • Launched (April 16, 2008) • Work in progress • Understanding the data • Improved Models • Operational Demonstration • C/NOFS Components • Satellite • Ground Stations • SCINDA • Beacons • Models and Products • C/NOFS Instruments • C/NOFS Occultation (GPS) Receiver for Ionospheric Sensing and Specification (CORISS) • Vector Electric Field Instrument (and mag) (VEFI) • Coherent EM Radio Tomography (CERTO) • Neutral Wind Meter (NWM) • Ion Velocity Meter (IVM) • Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP) SCINDA Sites Thru 2008 C/NOFS is pathfinder for operational iono. mission C/NOFS is on track for April 2008 Launch

18. Data Center Data Assimilation Satellite & Ground Stations Specification Products TEC DISS S4 Physics-Based Forecasts C/NOFS System Components Data-Driven Modeling Ionospheric Monitors GPS Error COMM Outage

19. C/NOFS Data and Product Types Global/Regional Maps Static, flat displays Point-to-Point Data Dynamic, interactive displays SATCOM RADAR SATCOM GPS 4D Data Grids 4D Data Grids 4D Data Grids

20. Space Particle Hazards Specification and Forecasting • Objectives: • Develop technology to measure/monitor /specify/forecast the space particle/radiation environments (local & globally) • Develop models of the magnetosphere & radiation belts • Predict the hazardous effects on DoD space systems • Develop technology to passively/actively defend against space environment Technology Challenges • Miniaturized Sensors • Limited Data Sets – Measurements made in 1960s & 1970s • Lack of understanding of non-linear dynamic radiation-belt processes • Non-Standardized electrical & telemetry interfaces

21. Space Weather SSA LEO Radiation Environment Models • Important for satellite acquisition… • New AP-9/AE-9 standard radiation belt model being developed • Provides significant improvement in coverage and statistics over current AP-8/AE-8 standard • Sorely needed by satellite engineers to control risk, maximize capability and reduce cost in designing for new orbit regimes • … and for space situational awareness • AFRL using CEASE/TSX-5 database to develop models of LEO radiation hazards • Protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) • Electrons in the “Horns” of outer belt • Drift of Earth’s internal magnetic field (0.3 – 0.45 deg/year) changes location of SAA - old maps inaccurate • Accurate map crucial for mission planning, situational awareness and anomaly resolution HEO TSX5 LEO ICO Aurora DSX RBSP Inner Belt Outer Belt GEO South Atlantic Anomaly (horn of inner belt) Slot > 1.2 MeV electron maps at 1050 km Outer belt horn Radiation environment Aurora Key:> 23 MeV, > 38 MeV,> 59 MeV, > 96 MeV Background x 3 maximum 1/2 maximum 1/10 maximum Proton boundaries at 800 km Developing next-generation LEO radiation models for mission planning/situational awareness

22. S E D A R S REQUIREMENT SPACE ENVIRONMENT DISTRIBUTED ANOMALY RESOLUTION SYSTEM Improved SSA • Identify space weather effects • Timely anomaly resolution • Discrimination from hostile actions Cultural Acceptance GOAL At least some space environment sensors are needed on every asset Accurate, timely and complete space environment information for operators and decision-makers Miniaturized, Easily-Integrated Instruments Existing, upgraded, and novel instruments affordably providing essential data Distributed, Coordinated Capability An architecture for configurable, distributed instruments and on-board analysis

23. Space Environment Sensors Micro-Meteoroid Impact Detector micrometeoroids debris kinetic ASATs Integrated Impact Stand-off Sensor Optical sensor Wavelet analysis Debris Plasma 8 MHz impacts Debris plasma sensor Microwave receiver “frequency” Optical Flash electrostatic discharge? Cabling and RF sensor 2 GHz 10 µs 0 µs time RF Emissions Acoustic Signature Mechanical Deformation Hypervelocity impacts to manned and unmanned spacecraft are an increasing threat. Preliminary experiments in FY04-06 demonstrated that an integrated optical and RF instrument could remotely detect hypervelocity (1–70 km/s) impacts. IMPACT SIGNATURE ANALYSIS RF time series Collaboration with AFRL/RVSV, NASA-JSC, & Sandia Natl Lab has begun. AFRL goal is to produce a flight instrument in FY11. DETECTION … LOCALIZATION … CHARACTERIZATION … ATTRIBUTION

24. Orbital Drag Environments Specification and Forecasting Objective: Develop sensors, data products, estimation techniques, empirical and coupled physical models to accurately specify and forecast the neutral atmosphere and satellite drag that are used to obtain precision orbit prediction for space objects Technology Challenges • Miniaturized, low-power, capable, reliable autonomous space-based sensors • Physics-based coupled model development • Active plasma control technologies • Space-based neutral-wind monitoring; characterization of appropriate orbital parameters • Data assimilation and forecasting Developing first physics-based model to accurately specify/forecast the satellite drag environment

25. SWFL CoE SWx Impacts to MissionsSpace Weather Forecast Laboratory • Facility for integrating AFRL and related space weather forecast capabilities • Test bed for testing and evaluating space weather forecasting techniques, tools, and models • Focus for transfer of R&D models into operational usage (as per National Space Weather Panel Assessment Committee) SWFL A platform for demonstrating AFRL SWx science and technology for ops

26. SWFL looking to bridge the gap between CISM and warfighter Model CouplingSpace Weather Forecast Laboratory • SWFL Activities • End-to-end validation • Tailoring for DoD needs • Science Applications • Increasing system TRL • Product generation • Scientist “training” • Supports FLTC 2.6.3 – “Integrated Space Environment”

27. Conclusion • We are in a rapidly emerging state of technology to enable space weather forecasting for current and future DoD systems • AFRL’s role is to bridge the gap between space weather research and warfighter needs • Future of space weather (from AF perspective): • Robust Numerical Space Weather Prediction • More sensing through small, cheap, lightweight sensors on many satellites • Direct inclusion of space weather effects in systems and decision aids AFWA’s Space WOC GPS IIR-13 launch