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Energy Dialogue: Transport 20 th September 2006

Energy Dialogue: Transport 20 th September 2006. Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Energy Dialogue: Transport. The Energy Review Historic Trends Technical Issues Fuel Efficiency

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Energy Dialogue: Transport 20 th September 2006

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  1. Energy Dialogue: Transport20th September 2006 Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon InnovationCentre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA

  2. Energy Dialogue: Transport • The Energy Review • Historic Trends • Technical Issues • Fuel Efficiency • New Fuels • The Social Dimension • How important is it? • New Ideas • Conclusions

  3. The Energy Review Petrol Diesel but much with a positive spin. • Just 3.2% of Review but Transport is 33.1% of energy demand • Mostly what has been done • Limited on future measures • Has major omissions Band G covers a broad range Base taxation directly on carbon emission? Data from Vehicle Emissions Database

  4. Historic Trends: Personal Mobility • Increase in personal mobility by ~400% in 50 years • Mostly by car journeys • Decline in bus travel (but trend now reversed ) • Nearly 50% increase in rail travel since privatisation • represents a saving of 1.5 - 2 millions tonnes of CO2 per annum compared to road. If this travel is replacing road travel!! Will investment in public transport necessarily reduce car journeys?

  5. Historic Trends: Freight • Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by: • 223% since 1960 • 20% since 1990 • Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?

  6. Personal mobility Private Motoring • Components of Energy Demand in personal transport. • Desire for mobility exceeded fuel efficiency improvements until 1990. • Since 2000 energy consumption approximately in balance. • Need to reduce further increases in mobility if CO2 is to be reduced significantly.

  7. Energy Efficiency Trends Mean CO2 emissions – voluntary targets will not reach 140 g/km by 2008/09 Trends in car engine size Consequence of increase in engine size is 2.9 Mtonnes extra of CO2. per annum. Data from Transport Statistics 2005. Table 2005.

  8. 1000 - 1300 1003 - 1600 <1000 1600 - 2000 2000 - 2500 2500 - 3000 >3000 Size of Car Engines in Market 2006 Percentage of models available compared to social desire. -ve means less models on market than people intending to buy. Size of Choice according to survey Data: Vehicle Emission Database Department of Transport Report: “Assessing the Impact of Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty”

  9. Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour • Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris • Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph. • Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10%% Raising Awareness • A small car emits: equivalent of 1 party balloon every 60m. • Driving just 1.6 miles emits as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour.

  10. Technical Issues: New Fuels • Biofuels: one part of the solution in near term with Fuel Cells in longer Term?? Biofuel Options • Biogas • Bioethanol (5% or 85%) • Biodiesel (5% to 100%) • Vegetable oil • Benefit > Reduced CO2 and other emissions? Depending on the pathway, biofuels can have a major impact in reducing CO2 from transport.However, other studies give differing results and clarity and robustness of methodolgy is needed – including “Real Road Tests” Overall CO2 emissions for different fuels/production methods/power trains. Based on CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR results as adapted by Andy Taylor

  11. Launch of BioEthanol in UK: Norwich 15th March 2006 Planning is neededboth for vehicles and infrastructure

  12. Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry 2004 First trials ever of fuel economy ‘on the road’ using biodiesel 8 Volvo FH12 Trucks:5%, 20%, 35%, 50% biodiesel blends • Despite reduced calorific value of biodiesel, • fuel consumption remained the same

  13. Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry Driver behaviour • Driver behaviour can affect performance • Driver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel than driver 1

  14. Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry • Trials demonstrated other benefits compounding to 60% saving • Using 50% uvo biodiesel (~40% saving) • Advanced driver training (~15% saving): cumulative ~49% • Better route/load planning (~10% saving): cumulative ~54% • More fuel-efficient trucks (~10% saving): cumulative ~59% Total CO2 saving ~59% • However • Widespread availability of biodiesel at this concentration and new trucks will take time • Other actions could be taken in shorter time scale • Advanced driver training (~15% saving): • Better route/load planning (~10% saving): Total CO2 saving ~24%

  15. Implications of Road Transport Fuel Obligation for 2010 • In UK it is 5% substitution of biofuels by volume. Should it be 5% by energy? • Will the buy out money necessarily end up promoting UK projects as with Renewable Obligation? • Significant quantities of wheat are exported which could be used for bioethanol. • Land Area required for 5% by volume • ~10000 – 12000 sq km (similar to NFU figure of 1.2 Mha) • or 4-5% of total land area of UK. area of Norfolk, Suffolk, and part of Cambridgeshire combined • Opportunities for use of co-products- animal feed/power generation • What happens if RTFO is increased further? Is land area requirement sustainable?

  16. UK UK D D UK D PersonalMobility: Does Public Transport reduce car travel? More use of car > more total distance travelled. Greater distance by train > greater use of car. Compare UK with Germany switch UK car journeys to public transport at German levels. saving by train 1.01 M tonnes saving by bus 0.74 M tonnes Reducing mobility desire 9.22 M tonnes Suggests overriding issue is increased desire for mobility rather than significant switching of mode of transport.

  17. Investment in Public Transport • Invest in Public Transport and get people out of their cars? • Norwich Orbital bus scheme - £1.2 million • Links railway station, hospital, University, City Centre with places near Ring Road. • Not that popular yet. People still using their cars. Fare £1.65 return car park charges at hospital often considerably more. B Smart Dynamic Bus Routing? • Bus Service A > B • People at C not served • Divert route via C • increased journey times less popular with A > B, particularly if people only occasionally get on at C. • Dynamic Routing on demand extension of Trinidad Route Bus System C • Mobile phone SMS • Intelligent bus stops A

  18. Social Issues: Lift SharingOur congested roads are full of empty seats • Car travel (2004 statistics): • 679 billion passenger kilometres • 398 billion vehicle kilometres • Average occupancy 1.71. • Raising this to an average of 2 would save • 9.9 Mtonnes CO2. Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport. Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO2 and reducing car use. The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.com is based in Norfolk; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2 52 million km shared each year.

  19. Social Issues: First car share club in East Anglia However, some research of Cambridge scheme by Prof. Crawford Brown suggests that much of use is additional use not replacement use. EDP, June 2, 2006

  20. Providing Public with more information • Impact of carbon emissions • Petrol receipt from Denmark • Individuals often go for budget airlines for the cheap weekend break in Europe. Is this rational? • e.g. Paris for weekend break Prices as per respective WEB Sites on 19th Sept. 2006

  21. Conclusions • Significant opportunities exist for reducing CO2 using biofuels. • Government needs clearer statements on its commitments: e.g.RTFO. • Why not a requirement of 5% by energy content? • Where will buy out money go? • Will it promote industry in UK? • Land requirements in post 2010 ideas from increased RTFO? • Issues of fuel efficiency need addressing more effectively • Reverse trend towards large engine cars • Revisit the banding system and related taxation • Social Dimension must not be overlooked. • Better education/awareness - driver behaviour. • Address issue of continual increases in desire for mobility. Could provide more rapid and cheaper method to reduce CO2? "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

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