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Alternative Fuels: Where Are We? Where Are We Headed?

This presentation explores the basics of energy, regulated emissions and greenhouse gases, EPA and CARB regulations, bus fuel options, historical fuel-use trends in the bus industry, comparative emissions, and conclusions. It also discusses different forms of energy potential, energy carriers, energy considerations (availability, affordability, security, sustainability), and environmental impacts of renewable and non-renewable energy sources. Additionally, it covers the impact of greenhouse gases on climate change and the scientific consensus on global warming.

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Alternative Fuels: Where Are We? Where Are We Headed?

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  1. Alternative Fuels:Where Are We?Where Are We Headed? CalACT 2007 Spring Conference & Expo April 25, 2007 Paul Griffith National Projects Manager ATTI

  2. Presentation Outline • Energy Basics • Regulated Emissions and Greenhouse Gases • Global Warming • EPA and CARB Regulations • Bus Fuel Options • Historical Fuel-Use Trends in Bus Industry • Comparative Emissions • Conclusions

  3. Forms of Energy Potential (stored) • Chemical • Petroleum • Natural Gas • Propane • Biomass • biodiesel • Stored Mechanical • Nuclear • Gravitational • Hydropower Kinetic (motion) • Electrical • Radiant • Solar • Thermal • Geothermal • Motion • Wind • Sound Sources: US Energy Information Administration

  4. Renewables vs. Nonrenewables 94% 6% (CONSERVATION) Source: US Energy Information Administration

  5. Secondary Energy Forms • “Energy Carriers” • Used to easily store, move, delivery energy • Electricity • 38% Natural Gas • 20% Coal • 17% Large Hydro • 14% Nuclear • 11% Renewable • Hydrogen • Natural Gas • Water Sources: US Energy Information Administration; CA Energy Commission

  6. US Energy Consumption by Source & Sector Source: US Energy Information Administration

  7. Energy Considerations: Availability Dependence on Foreign/ Unstable Sources petroleum & NG Domestic Oil & NG production past their peak Domestic Demand Sources: Assoc. for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas; US Army Corps of Engineers

  8. Non-Renewables: Domestic & World Reserves Source: US Army Corps of Engineers (ERDC/CERL TR-05-21)

  9. Energy Considerations: Affordability petroleum & NG Prices Domestic & World Demand Source: US Army Corps of Engineers (ERDC/CERL TR-05-21)

  10. No. 2 Diesel - Average Retail Prices Source: U.S. DOE,Energy Information Administration

  11. Natural Gas Prices (Commercial Rate) Source: U.S. DOE,Energy Information Administration

  12. California Average Retail Electricity Prices Source: California Energy Commission

  13. Normalized Price Trends: Diesel, NG, Elect. Sources: U.S. DOE,Energy Information Administration; California Energy Commission

  14. Projected Price Trends Source: US Army Corps of Engineers (ERDC/CERL TR-05-21)

  15. Energy Considerations: Security Combustible fuels Explosive fuels create security risks Nuclear materials • US: 5% of world’s population, • uses 25% annual energy production -- loss of goodwill -- context for military conflicts Source: US DHS; US Army Corps of Engineers

  16. Energy Considerations: Sustainability Earth’s natural resources depleting at alarming rate • 100 million years creation = 1-yr world consumption Global warming Smog Acid rain Ground-level ozone Fuel mining/production • destroys ecosystems & biodiversity Sources: Jellinbah Resources; AP; PDPhoto.org; US Army Corps of Engineers

  17. Environmental Impacts: Non-Renewables Source: US Army Corps of Engineers (ERDC/CERL TR-05-21)

  18. Environmental Impacts: Renewables Source: US Army Corps of Engineers (ERDC/CERL TR-05-21)

  19. >90% of Californians Breath Unhealthy Air at Times Source: California Air Resources Board

  20. Criteria Emissions • Fine Particulate Matter (PM10) • reduces visibility; penetrates deep into lungs, impairing function • Carbon Monoxide (CO) • invisible; reduces oxygen in blood • Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) • brownish haze; impair breathing; react in sunlight to form ozone • Non-Methane Hydrocarbons (NMHC) • react in sunlight to form ozone Ground-Level Ozone (O3) • Invisible; powerful respiratory irritant; damages crops, degrades rubber & paint Source: US Environmental Protection Agency

  21. Observed Climate Change Magnitude, rate and duration of warming in the 20th century is greater than in any of the previous nine centuries. The 1990s were the warmest decade in the past 1,000 years.

  22. Simplified Greenhouse Effect     Source: US EPA Climate Change Outreach Kit

  23. Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases CA world’s 9th largest emitter Source: SBAPCD; California Energy Commission

  24. Temperature DataCO2 Data Antarctic Ice Core Samples 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Standard Deviations from Mean 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Years Before Present CO2 and Temperature Records Sources: Leland McInnes; NOAA; ORNL

  25. Carbon Emissions Since Industrial Revolution Source: Robert A. Rohde; Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research

  26. Global Temperature Since Industrial Rev. 20th Century: Temp +1.1 °F (+0.6 °C) Source: Robert A. Rohde; Global Warming Art

  27. Top 6 Warmest Years Worldwide Since 1890s • 2005 • 1998 • 2002 • 2003 • 2006 • 2004 (11 of 12 Warmest Years have Occurred Since 1995) Source: Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA)

  28. Scientific Consensus on Global Warming 1965 Increasing atmospheric CO2 could lead to “marked changes in climate” by 2000 (Scientific Advisory Board to President Johnson) 1990 “Observed warming could be largely due to natural climate variability” (IPCC) 1995 “Evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 2001 “New & stronger evidence that most of warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities“ (IPCC) 2007 “Global warming very likely manmade” (IPCC) Sources: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  29. Glacial Retreat Collection of 20 glacier length records from different parts of world Length 2000 1500 Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service

  30. Rhone Glacier, Swiss Alps 1859 2001 2,500-m retreat, 450-m higher Source: Gary Braasch Photography

  31. Pasterze Glacier, Austria 1875 2004 2,000-m retreat Source: Univ. Salzburg; Gary Braasch Photography

  32. Portage Glacier, Alaska 1914 2004 Alaska's glaciers receding at 2x rate previously thought (7-19-02 Science journal) Source: NOAA; Gary Braasch Photography

  33. Grinnell Glacier, Glacier Nat’l Park, Montana 1911 2000 NPS estimates that all but a few of the 30 glaciers in this park will be gone by mid-century Sources: National Park Service; Gary Braasch Photography

  34. Water Withdrawals from Rivers & Lakes . . . have doubled since 1960 Lake Chad 1960 World’s 6th largest lake 1963-2001 Shrunk 95%; wetlands spoiled Sources: World Resources Institute; UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) One Planet Many People: Atlas of our Changing Environment

  35. Amazon River Basin Drought Effects Source: World Resources Institute

  36. Destabilization of Ocean Currents Measurements indicate a 30% reduction in ocean circulation volume since 1957 Significant climate changes for areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift. 25º N lat Sources: World Resources Institute; Ocean current figure: www.NASA.gov; Transect information: Bryden, Harry L. et al.  "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N." Nature 438: 655-657. 1 December 2005

  37. Frequency of Weather Related Disasters Source: Swiss Re 2005

  38. That’s Where 1°F Gets Us . . . Where to next?

  39. Climate Model Predictions for Global Warming SRES A2 Emissions Scenario (assumes no action taken to reduce emissions) Source: Robert A. Rohde; Global Warming Art

  40. Largest GHG Emitters (5% of World Population) Source: World Resources Institute

  41. Think Globally, Act Locally No Silver Bullet Photo Credit: 101 In Motion

  42. US Public Transportation Ridership During First Six Months of 2006: • ~5 billion passenger trips (+3.2%) • Light rail +9.4% • Commuter rail +3.4% • Bus +3.2% • Subways +2.6% • Paratransit +3.8% • Trolleybus +0.5% • Other +0.2% Source: APTA

  43. Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) • Mandated alternative fuels as component of federal, state, and alt fuel provider fleets • 2004 Final Rule exempts private & local government fleets • Although public transit fleets not subject to EPAct, many have pioneered alt fuel technologies Source: US Department of Energy

  44. California Urban Bus Emission Standards Criteria Pollutants CO 98% Reduction 1988-2010 NOx HC PM NMHC Source: California Air Resources Board (CCR§1956.1)

  45. Alternative Fuel Options: Mobile Applications Fuel Characteristics Transit Bus Manufacturer Comments

  46. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) • Works well as a bus fuel, but low energy content, storage densities, and fuel efficiencies = low range. • Powers: > 90% of alt fueled small buses > 95% of alt fueled mid- to full-size buses • US produces ~87% of NG it consumes with most of remainder coming from Canada. • 2400-3600 psi; onboard cylinders requireperiodic inspection and certification. • Extensive modifications to facilities that fuel, service, and maintain CNG buses (ventilation and leak detection & monitoring systems). • Strong training programs crucial.

  47. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) • Cryogenic liquid fuel: very low temp (-120 to -260F) & relatively low pressure (< 100 psi). • Liquefaction process expensive & energy intensive. • Less common than CNG • Similar fuel efficiency, training, facilities modifications as CNG.

  48. NG Fuels: Bus Manufacturer Comments • “NG market consistent but not growing” • “Initially problematic: engine problems, fuel impurities, and infrastructure costs; those problems generally resolved” • “Lingering challenges: reduced range,higher vehicleweight, fuel availability,and increased fuel & maintenancecosts” • “LNG has fuel advantages over CNG, but interest as bus fuel has faded over last 5 years” • “Concerns about potential liabilities. CNG: high pressures, potential leaks and fires. LNG: cryogenic nature, potential to boil off as methane creates emissions and additional safety concerns” Source: ATTI Survey of Bus Manufacturers

  49. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG or Propane) • Used in vehicles since the 1920s. • Successfully deployed in 30-ft & under bus market. • ~90% of LPG used in US is domestically produced. • Range, fuel efficiency, and fueling station cost issuesless challenging than CNG or LNG. • Heavier-than-air, precautions necessary to avoid ignition sources in low-lying areas.

  50. Propane: Bus Manufacturer Comments • “Appropriate for small buses” • “Higher vehicle cost and fuel availability limits its application” • “Safety concerns regarding heavier-than-air characteristic” Source: ATTI Survey of Bus Manufacturers

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