Daily & seasonal gradients of linear fit (SM=bP+a i.e. result=LINFIT(SM,P)

1. Daily & seasonal gradients of linear fit (SM=bP+a i.e. result=LINFIT(SM,P) Model mean gradients, precip v soil moisture*, CMIP5 models, historical run (1/1/1990-31/12/2005) Only uses 10 models, i.e. omits CNRM, because of lower amount of soil moisture in this model * Known as soil moisture, volumetric soil water layer 1, moisture in upper portion of soil column, moisture in upper 0.1m of soil column, depending on model

2. Colours show model mean gradients Stippling shows where all models agree on sign (+ve or -ve) of gradient DJF MAM JJA SON

3. Colours show model mean gradients Stippling shows where 5 out of 10 models agree that gradients lie between the upper and lower confidence intervals (sigma*3) from the GPCP precipitation – ERA SM gradients DJF MAM JJA SON

4. Colours show model mean gradients Stippling shows where 5 out of 10 models agree that gradients lie between the upper and lower confidence intervals (sigma*3) from the ERA precipitation – ERA SM gradients DJF MAM JJA SON

5. Colours show model mean gradients Stipping shows where 8 out of 10 models agree that gradients > 1 mm/day per kg/m2 DJF MAM JJA SON

6. Colours show model mean gradients Stipping shows where inter-model standard deviation < 75% of the mean DJF MAM JJA SON