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Digital Aviation Services

Digital Aviation Services. Cammye Sims December 2, 2010. Participating NWS Forecast Offices are producing experimental digital forecasts of ceiling, visibility, and probability of thunder Boston, MA Jackson, KY Caribou, ME Charleston, WV Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

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Digital Aviation Services

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  1. Digital Aviation Services Cammye Sims December 2, 2010

  2. Participating NWS Forecast Offices are producing experimental digital forecasts of ceiling, visibility, and probability of thunder Boston, MA Jackson, KY Caribou, ME Charleston, WV Greenville-Spartanburg, SC TAFs fall directly out of these grids What are Digital Aviation Services

  3. Moves toward the NextGen requirements: digital ceiling and visibility consistent aviation forecasts Important guidance tool for medical services, search and rescue, and GA Improves NWS forecast consistency with aviation forecasts and beyond Why Digital Aviation Services?

  4. Objective – Digital Services • Provide hourly graphical forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility which represent prevailing conditions for the next 30 hours • Forecast flight categories, not observations! • Keep the process manageable for the forecasters • Allow TAFs to “drop out” of the database with little or no post-editing • TAFs are a planning tool – focus on 2 to 6 hours

  5. Operations Assessment • Staff feedback has been very positive • Prefer “keeping it simple” • No one wants to go back to writing TAFs! • Operations far more efficient • Short term forecaster no longer removed from grids to compose TAFs • Product consistency much improved! • Verification and Model Bias • No discernable decrease in skill • Model bias more apparent

  6. IFR CSI Aug 15 – Oct 30 .183 .445 .424 .424 .452 .175 .391 .502 .513 .521 .657 .256 .436 .505 .381 .529 .552 .388 .425 .596 .211 .505 .218 .609 .585 .575 .493 .547 .422 .371 .516 TAF Sites .543 Non-TAF Sites .433 GPRA FY10 .440 .559 .425

  7. Current and Future Initiatives • Coordinate the national requirements • C&V transition between forecast offices • Meaningful verification • Assess new guidance tools i.e. - Gridded LAMP, NCV, and high resolution numerical models • A national C&V grid used by AWC for the Area Forecast

  8. Steve Abelman – NextGen Program, NWSHQ Joe Dellicarpini - WFO Taunton, MA Fred McMullen – WFO Pittsburgh, PA Jeff Waldstreicher – NWS Eastern Region HQ Digital Aviation Services –Special Thanks

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