Opportunity for FMERA & Princeton University

1. Opportunity for FMERA & Princeton University to Create a World-class Centerfor Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDrivingCars by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhDProfessor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering Princeton University & CARTS Consortium for Autonomous Roadways & Transit Systems Presented at Fort Monmouth, NJ April 22, 2014

2. Opportunity for & to Create a World-class Centerfor Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDrivingCars by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhDProfessor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering Princeton University & CARTS Consortium for Autonomous Roadways & Transit Systems Presented at Fort Monmouth, NJ April 22, 2014

3. Important Elements of Quality of Life

4. Quality of Life 101: Important Elements • Environment • Clean air, water, … • Employment • “High Quality” Jobs • Correlated with Crime/Personal Safety • Mobility • Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, … • Main Premise: • Promoting the Adoption of Smart Driving Technology: • Creates “High Quality” Jobs, Improves Personal Safety • Improves Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, … • Improves the Environment

5. Where are We with Mobility?

6. The Automobile’s 1st 125 Years (1886-2011) Benz Circa 2011 Benz patent 1886 1st Automobile Delivered: Enormous Personal Freedom & Mobility But…Safe Operation Requires Continuous Vigilance

7. We Love the Freedom & Mobility But…Continuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers

8. Highway Sign-A-Long Buttercup Editionhttp://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/HIGHWAY_SING-A-LONG_%20BuildMeUpButtercup.mp4

9. Txtng while driving is out of control…

10. TravelTainment Industry Wants Everyone’sAttention

11. http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/NHTSA_Hendricks2001_UnsafeDrivingActs.pdfhttp://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/NHTSA_Hendricks2001_UnsafeDrivingActs.pdf In In 717 out of 723 accidents ((99%) “In 717 out of 723 crashes (99%), a driver behavioral error caused or contributed to the crash”

12. Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012

13. Response is Laudable Kirkland, WA April 3: US DOT Launches First-Ever National Distracted Driving Enforcement and Advertising Campaign  But… Not Likely to be Effective

14. We really Need to get to

15. What About Automation?

16. Up to today: Primarily concerned with safety standards associated with Crash Mitigation (air bags, seat belts, crash worthiness, …) Click image to view video

17. Even though Safety Doesn’t Sell, Some Automakers are Leading the Way http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Subaru%20EyeSight_Commercial60secCrashTest.mp4

18. Where are we Now with Automated Vehicles? Aichi, Japan, 2005 Expo Mercedes Intelligent Drive Rio Tinto Automated Truck Milton Keynes, UK Heathrow PodCar Tampa Airport 1st APM 1971 Copenhagen Metro Elevator Automated Guided Vehicles Rivium 2006 -> Tesla Car Transporter Rio Tinto Automated Train CityMobil2 Volvo Truck

19. Where Are We Now? Available in ShowRooms for Consumers “Level 2- Combined Automation wit Constant Vigilance ”

20. Click images to view videos • BAS-Plus • Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering  ) • Intelligent Drive (active steering  ) Volvo Truck Emergency braking

21. History and Development of DISTRONIC:Price reduction, intelligent packaging and availability cross-carline MY 2000 MY 2014 - Future MY 2006 - Current DISTRONIC PLUS Autonomous Braking Intervention In “Driver Assistance Package” with Blind Spot Assist/Lane Keeping Assist $2,950 Available Cross-Carline on almost every model • Enhancements to Driver Asst. Package • Steering Assist • BAS with Cross-Traffic Assist • PRE-SAFE Brake with Pedestrian Detection • PRE-SAFE PLUS – protection during rear collisions • In “Driver Assistance Package” with Blind Spot Assist/Lane Keeping Assist +$2,800 • Only available on S/E Introduce DISTRONIC Adaptive Cruise Control In package for +$3,700 Only available on S/CL

22. Alain’s Car Insurance on ‘14 S-Class https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1UHu3m17sw Annual Comprehensive: $2,000/yr (I walk to work) Assume: 10% Profit ($200) 10% Operating Costs ($200) 80% Expected Liability Exposure ($1,600) “997 package has to reduce my Expected Liability Exposure by 50% “997 package has to reduce my Expected Liability Exposure by 50% ($800)

23. More on Google: Levandowski Presentation DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research

24. Could “Pass-through” Finance Mercedes Intelligent Drive?? (Available in ‘14 S-Class) May well Deliver 2/3rds the safety of Google Car $475 Pass-through becomes: $320 $20/yrfor Flo or the Gecko $300/yr to Mercedes Therefore: I get Intelligent Drive for Free (thank you Google) !! Plus: • Prob. of my car killing me is reduced factor: 2/3*.81= 0.54 (half) • Prob. of my car injuring me is reduced factor: 2/3*.65= 0.44 • I “Save” my expected “deductible self-insurance”: $247/yr • I have more Comfort • I have more Convenience • I have “Anxiety” relief What a great Business Case!I’m a Buyer!

25. With Mercedes the Market Leader in “Level 2-” and an incremental price tag that can be absorbed by a Price Leading Insurance Company, then other automakers will be enticed to follow which should lead to: • Viral adoption by the car buying public • “Moore’s Law type of price/performance improvement • Market-driven Transition to “Level 2” and “Level 3” at same or even lower price structure • Opportunity for After-market retrofit allows for Viral Adoption comparable to that enjoyed by Turn-by-Turn Navigation

26. Why New Jersey? • Observation: New Jersey is the home of NAHQ of: • Mercedes, BMW & Subaru • Action Item: • Create an environment that is conducive for these companies (and others) to successfully enhance, test and accelerate the adoption of SmartDrivingCars

27. What About Buses?

28. Use Autonomous Collision Avoidance Technology to Address a BIG CURRENT Transit Problem

29. Good News! Travel by Bus is getting safer!

30. Good News! Injuries have been trending down!

31. Terrible News! Claims are going through the roof!

32. Casualty and Liability Claims are a Huge Drain on the Industry • For the 10 year period 2002-2011, more than $4.1 Billion was spent on casualty and liability claims • For many self-insured transit agencies these expenses are direct “out-of-pocket” • Large reserves for claims must be budgeted • Claims experience also is reflected in insurance premiums • There are gaps in data reporting

34. The Cost of Installing an Active Collision Avoidance System on a Bus Could be Recovered in as Little as One Year Through Reductions in Casualty and Liability Claims

35. Why New Jersey? • Observation: In 2 Years, NJ Transit will initiate a new Bus Replacement Cycle (That will extend for about 15 years) • Action Item: • Ensure that the Procurement Specifications include “Level 2” SmartDriving Technologies

36. Princeton University (with American Public Transit Association (APTA), Greater Cleveland Transit, and insurance pools from WA, CA, OH & VA) Pending $5M Grant from Federal Transit Administration The Initial Project: Focused on Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDriving Technology to Buses

37. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation • Level 0 (No automation) • The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times. • Level 1 (Function-specific automation) • The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving or crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability control • Level 2 (Combined function automation) • Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in certain driving situations. • Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation. • Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of the vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centering • Level 3 (Limited self-driving) • Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions. • Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control. • Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google car • Level 4 (Full self-driving automation) • Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip. • The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle may operate while unoccupied. • Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated system

38. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles What the Levels Deliver: Levels 1 -> 3: Increased Safety, Comfort& Convenience Level 4 (Driverless Opportunity) : Efficiency, Equity Revolutionizes “Mass Transit” by enabling the provision of mobility without incurring a Labor Cost

39. Where Are We Committed to Go? “Level 4Driverless in Mixed Environment ” Google has stated* that by 2018 Google will make available to the public “Level 4” technology in a mixed environment *Anthony Levandowski reaffirmed last week @ Stanford TRB Workshop SergieBrin’s statement last year.

40. Why Fort Monmouth? • Observation: Ft Monmouth may well be one of the most hospitable sites for Google, and others) to implement their intention.

41. Near-term Opportunity for a Substantive Extension of Autonomous Transit • Specific: General Mobility for Fort Monmouth Redevelopment • Currently: Decommissioned Ft. Monmouth is vacant . • Ft. Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority (FMERA) is redeveloping the 3 sq. mile “city” • Focus is on attracting high-tech industry • The “Fort” needs a mobility system. • FMERA is receptive to incorporating an innovative mobility system • Because it is being redeveloped as a “new town” it can accommodate itself to be an ideal site for testing more advanced driverless systems.

42. Why New Jersey? • Observation: “Level 4” may well be upon us in less than 5 years and our planning, operational and maintenance entities are largely unaware • Action Item: Ensure that NJTPA, DVRPC, PANYNJ, DRPA, NJTP, NJDoT, NJTransit, etc. are all aligned to the Opportunities and Challenges associated with the rapid evolution of these technologies

43. The Ask: • Observation: “Level 4” may well be upon us in less than 5 years and our planning, operational and maintenance entities are largely unaware • Action Item: Ensure that NJTPA, DVRPC, PANYNJ, DRPA, NJTP, NJDoT, NJTransit, etc. are all aligned to the Opportunities and Challenges associated with the rapid evolution of these technologies

44. The Ask: FMERA & Princeton University Join to Create a World-class Centerfor Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDrivingCars

45. The Team The “Owners” FMERA & Princeton University The “Coaching Staff” CARTS Consortium for Autonomous Roadways & Transit Systems The “Players” The “Venue” The McAfee Center and The Fort

46. Opportunity for FMERA & Princeton University to Create a World-class Centerfor Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDrivingCars by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhDProfessor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering Princeton University & CARTS Consortium for Autonomous Roadways & Transit Systems Presented at Fort Monmouth, NJ April 22, 2014

47. Discussion! Thank You alaink@princeton.edu www.SmartDrivingCar.com

48. Where Are We Now?R&D “Level 3 Semi Self-Driving Automation”

49. Has drive ~ 500,000 miles with “Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation” But…Hardware too expensive and Reliance on 3D Google Maps is “non-elegant” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE

50. Click image to view video Most impressive self-driving car video to date (7/31/13) (See driverless finish at end of video)