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Performance evaluation on Sub-Saharian Africa region from high resolution simulations with

Performance evaluation on Sub-Saharian Africa region from high resolution simulations with COSMO-CLM. Paola Mercogliano, CIRA and CMCC Edoardo Bucchignani, CIRA and CMCC Myriam Montesarchio, CMCC Enrico Scoccimarro, INGV and CMCC. Cava dé Tirreni, 30 August -2 September 2011.

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Performance evaluation on Sub-Saharian Africa region from high resolution simulations with

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  1. Performance evaluation on Sub-Saharian Africa region from high resolution simulations with COSMO-CLM Paola Mercogliano, CIRA and CMCC Edoardo Bucchignani, CIRA and CMCC Myriam Montesarchio, CMCC Enrico Scoccimarro, INGV and CMCC Cava dé Tirreni, 30 August -2 September 2011

  2. 1. Outlook • The CLUVA project • The domains simulated • List of simulations and status • NIGERIA- World Bank: validation over Nigeria • The West domain: validation • The Lower East domain: validation • Conclusions

  3. 2. CLUVA – Climate change and urban vulnerability in Africa Project Co-ordinator: AMRA, Center of Competence in the field of Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk, Italy The project objective is to develop methods and knowledge to be applied to African cities, to manage climate risks, to reduce vulnerabilities and to improve their coping capacity and resilience towards climate changes. The project will explore the issues of climate change vulnerability, resilience, risk management and adaptation in selected African cities with local partners. Task 1.1: Model projection of climate change (Leader: CMCC) • The aim is to set up methods and work out probabilistic scenarios of climate change affected hazards having a resolution that fits for regional and urban systems (for the 5 selected cities) and related uncertainties. More detailed aims are: • To produce downscaled regional climate scenarios (IPCC scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for selected African areas surrounding the African cities of interest, at high resolution (about 8 km). Boundary from CMCC-MED. • To produce very high resolution projection (about 1-2 km) for the climate of some African cities using specific and accurate statistical techniques

  4. 3. Areas ofinterest for CLUVA 1950-2050 Spatial Resolution: 8 km EAST Domains: N(34.4 – 42.9 E; 6.1N – 12.5N) 120 x 90 gridpoints S (34.5 – 41.3 E; 11.8S – 2.1S) 95 x 135 gridpoints WEST Domain: (18 W -15.17 E; 3.3 – 16.8 N) 465 x 190 gridpoints St.Louis (16.5 W, 16.03 N)Ougadougou (1.55 W, 12.37 N) Douala (9.71 E, 4.045 N) Addis Abeba (38.75 E, 9.02 N) Dar es Salaam (39.27 E, 6.82 S)

  5. 4. West Domain : orography of the area Area of interest: (18W-15.17 E ; 3.3–16.8 N) Extension: 3491 x 1489 km Computational grid: 465x190 grid points; 40 levels

  6. 5. Lower east domain Area of interest: (34.54 - 41.26E ; 11.8 – 2.2 S) Extension: 747 x 1064 km Computational grid: 95x135 grid points; 40 levels Orography of the area

  7. 6. Upper east domain Area of interest: (34.45 - 43.03E ; 6.16 – 12.59 N) Extension: 952 x 714 km Computational grid :120x90 grid points; 40 levels Orography of the area

  8. 7. Details of the Numerical simulations • 8 km resolution • Supercomputer used: • Cluster of 30 IBM P575 nodes (32 cores per node) (peak power 18 TF) • Driving data: CMCC-MED 80 km resolution • Time step: 40 sec. • Numerical scheme: Runge-Kutta 2-time level HE-VI integration • Simulated periods and domains : • 1970-2065 (A1B scenario, only for west domain) • 1950-2050 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, • for west domain and east domains)

  9. 8. List of simulations • Scenario A1B West domain  1970- 2065(completed) • Scenario RCP 4.5 Lower East domain  1950-2050(completed) • Scenario RCP 4.5 Upper East domain  1950-2050 (completed) • Scenario RCP 4.5West domain  to be completed within November 2011 • Scenario RCP 8.5Lower East domain  to be completed within November 2011 • Scenario RCP 8.5Upper East domain  to be completed within January 2012 • Scenario RCP 8.5West domain  to be completed within January 2012

  10. 9. NIGERIA- World Bank Validation over Nigeria region: T2M (1976-2005) T2m yearly averaged value history (from Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria, Interim Report, June 2011)

  11. 10. NIGERIA- World Bank Validation over Nigeria region: Total Precipitation Total precipitation yearly averaged value history (from Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria, Interim Report, June 2011)

  12. 11. NIGERIA- World Bank Climate projection over Nigeria region: T2M (up to 2065) (from Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria, Interim Report, June 2011)

  13. 12. NIGERIA- World Bank Climate projection over Nigeria region: Total Precipitation (up to 2065) (from Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria, Interim Report, June 2011)

  14. 13. Mean temperature bias with CRU (COSMO-CRU) DJF Not well defined bias map. Bias is between -3 and +3 degrees JJA Hot bias of 3-4 degrees in the north part. In the south part, the bias is between -1 and +1 degrees.

  15. 14. Mean precipitation (mm/month) bias with CRU DJF Underestimation in the south coastal area. Quite good agreement in the other parts. JJA A strong bias is registered.

  16. 15. Temperature variation : future (2021-2050) minus past (1971-2000) DJF JJA

  17. 16. Precipitation variation (mm/month): future (2021-2050) minus past (1971-2000) DJF There is a big difference between winter and summer. In winter, there is a slight decrease of precipitation, while in summer there is a general increase with some exceptions. JJA

  18. 17. Mean temperature bias with CRU (east lower domain) DJF JJA

  19. 18. Temperature variation: future (2021-2050) minus past (1971-2000) DJF JJA

  20. 19. Conclusions • Good agreement with observed data over Nigeria • An increase of temperature is expected in the XXI century in Nigeria, while precipitations are substantially unchanged. • Numerical results related to the simulation of the climate of the west and the east lower domain at high resolution have been shown. • for the west domain: in winter, temperature bias is not well defined and the precipitation is underestimated in the south coastal area with a quite good agreement in the other parts, while in summer there is a strong bias; • for the east lower domain: the temperature is underestimated in winter and overestimated in summer; • for the west domainin the future, the temperature will increase, especially in winter; the precipitation will decrease slightly in winter and will greatly increase in summer; • for the east lower domainin the future, the temperature will increase, especially in winter.

  21. Thanks

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