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Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns. Types of elections. Primary / Caucus. General . Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office Example: Obama vs. Romney. Designed to choose the parties nominee

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Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

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  1. Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

  2. Types of elections Primary / Caucus General Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office Example: Obama vs. Romney • Designed to choose the parties nominee • Example: Romney, Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum competing to be Republican nominee for 2012 • Types: • Closed: must declare in advance that you are a member of the party to take part in this election • About 40 states (why? ) • Open: on primary election day you pick which parties primary you will vote on • 8 states • Blanket: can vote in primaries for both parties • Washington & Alaska Hon .Clay Henry III of Lajitas , Texas

  3. Types of Elections • Primary / Caucus • How to get on the ballot in NJ (each state is different) http://nj.gov/state/elections/candidate_pdf/partisan-candidate-requirements-123011.pdf • It is estimated to cost about $50 million to run a successful primary/caucus campaign (Romney spent $110 million) • In the past 3 decades, in almost every case, the candidate who raised the most money during this stage in the process won their party’s nomination • What is a Caucus? • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fobO82jbNRg • 19 states • Why do most states hold primaries? • C’s are too time consuming!!!! • About 10% turnout

  4. Primaries / Caucuses • So where does that $ go? • Organization • Fundraisers , Accountants, Press secretary , Scheduler, Speech writers , TV and internet advertising specialist , Pollsters, Direct mailing company & Social media specialists Helps to win Iowa Caucus and N. H. Primary  • only 2 candidates in the past 10 elections have lost both and gone on to win their party’s nomination • G. W. Bush in 2000 • Clinton in 1992 So what do you have to do to win? Read: the excerpt from Stormy Weather • What can help a candidate gain momentum? • How long does the “invisible primary” last? • Iowa doesn’t award delegates until weeks after the caucuses, so why are the Iowa caucuses still seen as important? • Why does New Hampshire remain an indicator of who will win the eventual nomination?

  5. Primaries / Caucuses • Need to motivate voters to turn out for you • Primary turnout low • About 20% • This results in candidates trying to appeal to the base of their party while also looking ahead to general election • Republicans: need to appear conservative • Democrats: need to appear liberal • During the general election candidates generally return to more moderate stances, must remember what you say during primary/ caucus season will be used by your opponent • Can result in “Clothespin voting”

  6. Presidential Primaries / Caucuses • When voting in a P/C you are actually selecting delegates who will attend the party’s National Convention to demonstrate support for that candidate. • Much like the electoral college The Party’s decide the rules, they are not in the Constitution or state law, the party’s can change the rules prior to an election. • Democrats award delegates proportionally in all states • Republicans allow the state to decide if they want a winner take all system or a proportional system • NJ = winner take all

  7. Delegates Democrats Republican Total Number of Delegates: 2,066Pledged: 1,907Unpledged: 159 Each state gets 6 delegates plus 3 for each member in the House BONUS DELEGATES Each state can earn additional delegates by meeting one or more of the following requirements: the state cast a majority of its votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the previous presidential election the state elected Republicans to the U.S. House or Senate, selected a Republican Governor or state legislative majorities and / or the state holds its presidential primary election after March 15th (this is to discourage states from holding early primaries). • Total number of delegates: 4,339Pledged: 3,537Unpledged: 802 • PLEDGED "PLEO" (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) DELEGATES • Based on % of democratic vote in that state in the past 3 presidential elections • UNPLEDGED "PLEO" DELEGATES (Super delegates occurred after 1980)Primarily Democratic Members of Congress, Governors, and "distinguished party leaders." 802 total. • This equals 15% of pledged delegates

  8. General Presidential vs. General Congressional Campaigns Presidential Congressional Less voter turn-out, especially during midterm elections (non-presidential election years 2002,2006, 2010..) Typically about 36% turnout since 1964 Historically less party turnover (recent exceptions include 2006 and 2010) Why less turnover?!? Incumbency advantage More direct connection to the voter (service to constituents) Separate themselves from the “mess in Washington” Sophomore surge: can use perks of office to get elected • More voters participate • Typically about VEP 60% turnout since 1964 • More party turnover • Past 20 elections • Republicans 9 times • Democrats 11 times How to get on the ballot for the general election in NJ http://nj.gov/state/elections/petitions/2012-general-president-inst.pdf

  9. Presidential Elections • Who does the public prefer? • Most candidates have experience in multiple areas listed below

  10. Presidential Election • Theme? • A simple ,appealing idea that can be repeated over and over and over and over and over (you get it) • Obama: Forward • Romney: We can’t afford 4 more years • If you are an incumbent, you will invariably have to defend your record • Tone? • Positive? • Build me up • Negative? • Knock them down

  11. Negative Campaigning • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLj6yY4P_Rg Jefferson and Adams • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k Daisy • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y Willy Horton

  12. Timing? • Start too early and you may go broke, too late and you may not build up enough momentum or name recognition • Targets? • Who are the undecided in this election? How will you sway them? • Use precise targeting / “micro-targeting” • New demographics(see next slide)

  13. Targets: Demographics • http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/nj?hpt=elec_racenav • Need to focus on these voters and mobilize them!!!! http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec12/gop_11-08.html • What groups are Republicans going to have to reach out to to win the next presidential election ? • How can the Republicans appeal to women and Latinos without changing their core beliefs?

  14. Presidential Elections • What types of issues will the candidate focus on? • Position: rival parties take different stances • Taxation: • Obama : increase taxes on wealthy to help pay down debt • Romney: decrease tax rate for all to help struggling economy • Valence: how closely a party/candidate is connected with a concept • Nixon: associated with a tough stance on crime • Reagan: more associated with a strong economy

  15. Presidential Elections • Who is going to be your Vice President? • Need to pick someone who will appeal to a part of the party you may not appeal to “balance the ticket” • Youth / Experience • Regional • Moderate / Conservative or Liberal • Unify party after bitter primary • Classic examples • Kennedy and Johnson • Reagan / G.H.W. Bush • How does Obama /Biden reflect this? • How does Romney / Ryan reflect this? • Classic Anomaly: • Clinton / Gore

  16. Presidential Elections • How will you “advertise” your candidate? • TV • Debates • Direct Mail • Internet

  17. General Election and the Electoral College • http://hallnj.org/press/press-releases/1561-video-release-hall-institute-and-league-of-women-voters-nj-release-video-psa-to-dispel-first-time-voting-myths • http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50133559n&tag=showDoorFlexGridLeft;flexGridModule Electoral College: 538 electors in total (100+435+3) , need 270 Meet on the first Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December votes sent to Congress counted during a joint session How are electors chosen? What happens if there is a tie? (1825) election of 1800: Jefferson v. Adams 12th amendment: Electors vote on separate ballot for pres and VP to avoid rivals holding office together http://news.yahoo.com/photos/2012-election-maps-slideshow/#crsl=%252Fphotos%252F2012-election-maps-slideshow%252Felection-maps-photo--47474268.html How the 2012 election broke down, various maps

  18. Electoral College Pros Cons Doesn’t always reflect the will of the people Can have faithless electors Doesn’t reflect the idea of 1 person, 1 vote Wyoming has one "elector" for every 177,556 people and Texas has one "elector" for about every 715,499. • Allows for both people and states to be represented : Federalism • “Extended Republic” • Need to appeal to a variety of voters, not just one faction or region

  19. Campaign Spending • Reading: • Summarize the rules governing campaign finance • FECA • BCRA / McCain Feingold Act • Public Funding • Buckley v. Valeo • What was Buckley’s argument? • What did the Supreme Court rule? • How does this currently impact elections?

  20. PACs and Super PACs • Political Action Committees • Created in 1944 by the CIO as a way to contribute to FDR’s campaign • Organizations that have developed with the sole purpose of helping a candidate to get (re)elected to office • Individuals and organizations can contribute up to $5,000 annually to a PAC • PACs can legally contribute only $5,000 to a candidate committee per election (primary, general or special). • They can also give up to $15,000 annually to any national party committee, and $5,000 annually to any other PAC. • However, there is no limit to how much PACs can spend on advertising in support of candidates or in promotion of their agendas or beliefs. • PACs must register with and file detailed financial reports of monies raised and spent to the Federal Election Commission.

  21. PACs and Super PACs • Traditional PACs include two distinct types of political committees registered with the FEC: • separate segregated funds (SSFs) • political committees established by corporations, labor unions, membership organizations or trade associations that can only solicit contributions from individuals associated with the sponsoring organization • Microsoft PAC • No connected committees • not sponsored by or connected to any of the listed organizations and are free to solicit contributions from the general public, subject to campaign contribution limits. • National Rifle Association

  22. Super PACs PACs and Super PACs • Created as a result of 3 Court Decisions • In January 2010, the Supreme Court dealt a major blow to McCain-Feingold. Ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, the court said that the government cannot prevent corporations and unions from spending unlimited money to support or criticize specific candidates. • Drawing on this decision in March 2010, a federal appeals court ruled in SpeechNow.org v. Federal Election Commission that political committees making independent expenditures—that is, spending not coordinated with or directed by a candidate’s campaign—could accept donations of unlimited size.

  23. PACs and Super PACs • Super PACs may not contribute directly to candidate’s campaign or to political parties but instead spend money independent of a political campaign to influence the result. • In addition, they can raise funds from corporations, unions and other groups, and from individuals, without legal limits. • According to FEC rules, Super PACs are not allowed to cooperate, consult, or act in concert with a candidate or their agents or a political party or its agents. • They can , however, publically declare support for one candidate or another. • List of current Super PACs • http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/superpacs.php?cycle=2012

  24. Presidential Campaign Spending • http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance

  25. Review

  26. Citizen’s United and the 2012 Election: A Case Study • http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/campaign_finance/index.html

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