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A Multidimensional Initiative to Measure and Understand the Skilled Technical Workforce

A Multidimensional Initiative to Measure and Understand the Skilled Technical Workforce. COPAFS Quarterly Meeting September 6, 2019 John M. Finamore Program Director, Human Resources Statistics Program National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES)

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A Multidimensional Initiative to Measure and Understand the Skilled Technical Workforce

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  1. A Multidimensional Initiative to Measure and Understand the Skilled Technical Workforce COPAFS Quarterly Meeting September 6, 2019 John M. Finamore Program Director, Human Resources Statistics Program National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences National Science Foundation https://ncses.nsf.gov

  2. NCSES and the Skilled Technical Workforce • NCSES is one of the 13 principal federal statistical agencies • NCSES’s mandate is the collection, interpretation, analysis, and dissemination of data on the science and engineering (S&E) enterprise • Historically, NCSES has met this mandate through a suite of surveys that collect education and workforce data from the college-educated population • NCSES is currently exploring the collection of data from the sub-baccalaureate population to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the S&E enterprise

  3. STW Multidimensional Initiative Summary Points • The skilled technical workforce (STW) includes individuals who use science and engineering skills in their jobs but do not have a bachelor’s degree • The STW is a critical, but often overlooked, segment of the nation’s science and engineering enterprise • There is no reliable data source for detailed STW analysis • NCSES, in collaboration with STW stakeholders, has initiated an effort to collect data to inform STW policy discussions

  4. Summary Point #1 The skilled technical workforce (STW) includes individuals who use science and engineering skills in their jobs but do not have a bachelor’s degree

  5. There are 143 million employed individuals in the U.S. (ages 16-65) = 300,000 individuals Source: Current Population Survey, 2017

  6. 32 million individuals are in occupations that require science and engineering (S&E) skills S&E workforce Non-S&E workforce = 300,000 individuals Source: Current Population Survey, 2017

  7. 15 million individuals in the S&E workforce have at least a bachelor’s degree Non-S&E workforce S&E workforce, bachelor’s + = 300,000 individuals Source: Current Population Survey, 2017

  8. 17 million individuals in the S&E workforce have less than a bachelor’s degree S&E workforce, no bachelor’s Non-S&E workforce S&E workforce, bachelor’s + = 300,000 individuals Source: Current Population Survey, 2017

  9. NCSES Surveys of the S&E Workforce • NCSES collects comprehensive education, training, and workforce data on this population through three nationally representative surveys: • National Survey of College Graduates (NSCG) • Survey of Doctorate Recipients (SDR) • Early Career Doctorates Survey (ECDS) S&E workforce, no bachelor’s S&E workforce, bachelor’s + = 300,000 individuals Source: Current Population Survey, 2017

  10. NCSES Surveys of the S&E Workforce NCSES does not currently field a survey that collects comprehensive education, training, and workforce data on this population S&E workforce, no bachelor’s S&E workforce, bachelor’s + = 300,000 individuals Source: Current Population Survey, 2017

  11. Summary Point #2 The STW is a critical, but often overlooked, segment of the nation’s science and engineering enterprise

  12. STW Impact The workforce that actually built the space shuttle were not four-year degree engineers; They were skilled technicians. - Dr. Mae Jemison, 2019 The Nobel-Prize winning discovery of gravitational waves would not have been possible without the invaluable expertise of the people who assemble and maintain the facility’s large and complex heating, ventilation, vacuum, air conditioning, and electronic systems. - National Science Board, 2018

  13. Complexities of the STW • The STW are a critical component of almost every sector of the U.S. economy from installation to healthcare to computer occupations • Skilled technical workers are also critical to the operation of our Nation’s research infrastructure • The STW occupations are expected to be the faster growing occupations over the next decade • According to a GAO report, 80% of local areas said they had trouble filling jobs in occupations that depend on skilled technical workers

  14. Summary Point #3 There is no reliable data source for detailed STW analysis However, current data sources do provide top-level information about the STW

  15. Occupation Composition: STW Source: Current Population Survey, 2017

  16. Occupation Composition: S&E Workforce, Bachelor’s+ Source: Current Population Survey, 2017

  17. Additional STW Workforce Characteristics • The majority of workers in the STW are men (over 70%) • The median salary of the STW ($60,000) is significantly higher than for other workers with less than a bachelor’s degree ($29,000) • The certification/license prevalence rate for the STW (29%) is significantly higher than for other workers with less than a bachelor’s degree (15%)

  18. Overarching STW Information Needs • How do individuals ENTER the STW? • How do individuals maintain RELEVANCE in the STW? • How do individuals seek ADVANCEMENT in the STW?

  19. Specific STW Data Gaps • Employer STW skill requirements • Methods to acquire STW skills • Types of skills used in STW occupations • Alignment of skill demand and skill supply • STW demographic composition (broadening participation) • The relationship of non-degree credentials and employment outcomes • Job environment of skilled technical workers

  20. Summary Point #4 NCSES, in collaboration with STW stakeholders, has initiated an effort to collect data to inform STW policy discussions

  21. NCSES’s STW Multidimensional Initiative Task 1 Develop a Standard STW Definition Task 5 Develop a New Survey STW Initiative Task 4 Analyze Existing Admin Data Task 2 Conduct Stakeholder Outreach Task 3 Analyze Existing Survey Data

  22. NCSES’s STW Multidimensional Initiative: Task 1 Goal Identify an STW definition to enable consistent high-quality national estimates Progress Used the NCSES-developed STW working definition in the 2020 S&E Indicators: S&E Labor Force report Develop a Standard STW Definition Science and Engineering Labor Force (release date: September 2019)

  23. NCSES’s STW Multidimensional Initiative: Task 2 • Goal • Engage stakeholders, determine STW information needs, and explore STW measurement methodology • Progress • Planning engagement sessions and workshops with STW stakeholders later this year • Partner Conduct Stakeholder Outreach

  24. NCSES’s STW Multidimensional Initiative: Task 3 • Goal • Evaluate data from Federal surveys as potential sources for STW national estimates • Progress • Assessing utility of major demographic surveys • Developing an STW survey data inventory • Conducting literature review of recent STW research • Partner Analyze Existing Survey Data

  25. NCSES’s STW Multidimensional Initiative: Task 4 • Goal • Evaluate administrative data as potential sources for STW • sub-national estimates • Progress • Assess the quality of vacancy and resume data from Burning Glass Technologies • Developing an STW administrative data inventory • Partner Analyze Existing Administrative Data

  26. NCSES’s STW Multidimensional Initiative: Task 5 • Goal • Develop a nationally representative survey to derive baseline STW measures • Progress • Drafted questionnaire to collect education, training, workforce, and demographic data • Working toward a June 2020 data collection start • Partners Develop a New Survey

  27. Task 5: Develop a New Survey to Measure the STW • Population coverage: Must include individuals with an educational attainment level below the bachelor’s degree • Survey content: • Education background • Non-degree credentials (certifications, licenses, certificates, work experience programs) • Reasons for education/credential attainment • Employment characteristics • Demographics (sex, race/ethnicity, disability status) • Sample design: Occupation oversampling; Longitudinal analysis • Goal: Reliable STW estimation

  28. Investigating Potential STW Data Sources American Community Survey (ACS) National Survey of College Graduates (NSCG) Current Population Survey (CPS) Adult Training and Education Survey (ATES)

  29. Investigating Potential STW Data Sources

  30. Investigating Potential STW Data Sources Note: * indicates that the information collected is not as comprehensive as the other surveys.

  31. Investigating Potential STW Data Sources Note: * indicates that the information collected is not as comprehensive as the other surveys.

  32. Investigating Potential STW Data Sources Note: * indicates that the information collected is not as comprehensive as the other surveys.

  33. Investigating Potential STW Data Sources Note: * indicates that the information collected is not as comprehensive as the other surveys.

  34. Investigating Potential STW Data Sources Note: * indicates that the information collected is not as comprehensive as the other surveys.

  35. Investigating Potential STW Data Sources (continued) Pros:  Credential information  Reasons for attainment  Population coverage  Sample design Cons:  Unreliable STW estimation  Incomplete credential information  Uncertain future (low RR)  Population coverage

  36. Investigating Potential STW Data Sources (continued) • Credential information • Population coverage • Reasons for attainment • Sample design NTEWS National Training, Education, and Workforce Survey

  37. NTEWS Overview • General population survey with a focus on the skilled technical workforce • U.S. residents ages 16-75 not currently enrolled in high school • Designed to provide data to understand the relationship between credentials and career opportunities • Proposing to use the American Community Survey as its sampling frame (pending approval) • NCSES is the lead sponsor, NCES is the cosponsor, and the Census Bureau serves as the data collection contractor

  38. NTEWS Survey Content: Credentials

  39. NTEWS Survey Content: Credentials (continued) • Reason for attainment questionnaire item Thinking back to when you first got this license, which ONE of the following best describes why you got it? Mark one answer  To enter the workforce  To improve skills for a job I already had  To advance or be promoted in my line of work (including managing)  To switch to a new line of work  Other – Please specify:

  40. NTEWS Survey Content: Education

  41. NTEWS Survey Content: Employment

  42. NTEWS Survey Content: Demographics

  43. NTEWS Survey Design: Oversampling

  44. NTEWS Survey Design: Rotating Panel Design

  45. 2020 NTEWS Pilot Methodological Research • Contact strategies experiment • Incentive experiment • Adaptive design evaluation • Certificate seeded sample

  46. NTEWS Tentative Schedule

  47. Thank you John M. Finamore Program Director, Human Resources Statistics Program National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) https://ncses.nsf.gov jfinamor@nsf.gov (703) 292-2258

  48. Skilled Technical Workforce • Motivation for investigation • National Academies (2017) • CNSTAT (1989, 2008) • National Science Board (2017) • Recent proposed legislation (2018) • National Council for the American Worker • Definition • High level of knowledge in a technical domain • Education attainment level below the bachelor’s degree • Rothwell (2016) • Industry • Healthcare • Information technology • Cybersecurity • Advanced manufacturing

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