Climate Change: the Swiss Perspective

1. Climate Change:the Swiss Perspective Dr. Lorenz Martin Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Applied Physics University of Bern

2. Climate change is already taking place … Töss, August 2003 Brienz, August 2005 Prologue

3. Climate change is already taking place … (IPCC, 2007) Prologue

4. Climate change is already taking place … (IPCC, 2007) black: observed temperature anomaly red: modelled temperature anomaly, with anthropogenic factors blue: modelled temperature anomaly, without anthropogenic factors Prologue

5. Climate change is already taking place … … and we know why last 50years last 200years last 10‘000years Siegenthaler et al., (2005)Joos & Spahni (2008) Prologue

6. Outline Prologue • How can we determine the human impact on climate? • What will happen with the climate in the future? • What can we do against climate change? Conclusions

7. The global climate system How can we determine the human impact on climate?

8. The greenhouse effect without greenhouse effect: -18°C global average surface temperature with greenhouse effect: 14°C global average surface temperature (Dennis Hartmann) How can we determine the human impact on climate?

9. Radiative forcing todaywith respect to 1750 How can we determine the human impact on climate?

10. Excursus: Measuring water vapourand clouds • Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas (approx. 65% of the greenhouse effect) • The water vapour feedback is approx. 0.5°C/°C • Clouds (water and ice droplets) have a strong influence on the radiation balance in the atmosphere • Water vapour and cloud measurements are essential for the understanding of the climate system and for weather prediction How can we determine the human impact on climate?

11. A new instrument for ground-based water vapour and cloud measurements ASMUWARA, the all-sky multi-wavelength radiometer In operation at the Institute of Applied Physics, Univ. of Bern How can we determine the human impact on climate?

12. A new instrument for ground-based water vapour and cloud measurements (Martin, 2006) How can we determine the human impact on climate?

13. A new instrument for ground-based water vapour and cloud measurements MW above: temperature profiles over Bern left: multispectral images of clouds IR (Martin, 2003) How can we determine the human impact on climate?

14. CO2 emission scenarios … rapid economic growth, technological changes, fossil intensive energy sustainable economies and societies, reduced econ. growth rapid economic growth, technological changes, non-fossil energy (IPCC, 2001) What will happen with the climate in the future?

15. … and the expected temperature change Emissions (IPCC, 2001) What will happen with the climate in the future?

16. … and the expected temperature change non-fossil scenario fossil scenario (IPCC, 2007) What will happen with the climate in the future?

17. Temperature [ºC] Precipitation [%] 7 +60 +40 6 +20 5 0 4 -20 3 -40 -60 2 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Alpine temperature and humidity towards 2100 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 (11 different climate models): (Jacob, 2005) => warm and humid winters, hot and dry summers What will happen with the climate in the future?

18. What will happen with the climatein the future? Some examples (IPCC, 2001) What will happen with the climate in the future?

19. Protect or insure? protect insure Present Climate ? ? Future Climate (Schär, 2004; Heck, SwissRE) What will happen with the climate in the future?

20. Melting glaciers and their impact onriver discharge Seasonal water discharge of river Rhine at Rheinfelden today and in 2100 (+4.8°C) 1850 (Shabalova et al 2003) (Steiner, 2005) 2003 What will happen with the climate in the future?

21. Alpine temperature and humidity towards 2100 winter summer What will happen with the climate in the future?

22. What can we do against climate change? Two strategies: Adaptation (Anpassung) • adapt to climate change • typical example: construct river dams against floods • immediate effect, but local impact Mitigation (Milderung) • mitigate climate change • typical example: use bike instead of car • global impact, but delayed effect What can we do against climate change?

23. catalyser in cars in 1986 low-sulphur fuel oil in the 70s The efficiency of regulations … (BFS, BAFU, 2009) What can we do against climate change?

24. … and the impact of regulationson the economy (OECD, OcCC 2005) Economic performance is not affected by environmental regulations, taxes, etc.! What can we do against climate change?

25. Conclusions Climate change is taking place, and the reasons for climate change are known. Combating climate change • costs -- but doing nothing will cost much more! • requires global cooperation and investments for the far future. • is a matter of society, economy and politics. Every measure (adaptation and mitigation) is helpful. Conclusions

26. References • IPCC: International Panel on • Climate Change • part of UNO, founded in 1988 • reports approx every 5 years • Working group 1 report 2007: • 600 authors • 40 countries • 600 peer reviewers • http://www.ipcc.ch Appendix

27. Climate research in Switzerland andat the University of Bern NCCR Climate (http://www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch) • Swiss centre of excellence for climate research • start 2001, expected end 2013, NFS funded • 130 researchers, 13 institutions (Universities, ETH, etc.) • University of Bern is leading house and coordinator Oeschger Centre (http://www.oeschger.unibe.ch) • Climate research centre at the University of Bern • coordinates, funds and promotes climate research • interdisciplinary (sciences, humanities, economy, law, …) • Graduate School of Climate Sciences Appendix