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Regional Solutions September 4, 2015

Discover Oregon's demographic trends, population changes, job growth, and economic outlook. Explore the state's recovery post-recession, employment data, and budget projections.

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Regional Solutions September 4, 2015

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  1. Regional SolutionsSeptember 4, 2015 Brian DeForest Department of Administrative Services Chief Financial Office (503) 378-5442

  2. Oregon’s Demographic Trends

  3. A century of growth … and beyond(in millions) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, and OEA Office of Economic Analysis

  4. Population Change in Percent, 2000-2030 Oregon: 42.3% COLUMBIA CLATSOP HOOD RIVER WASHINGTON SHERMAN MULTNOMAH WALLOWA TILLAMOOK UMATILLA MORROW GILLIAM UNION YAMHILL CLACKAMAS WASCO POLK MARION WHEELER BAKER JEFFERSON LINCOLN GRANT BENTON LINN CROOK LANE DESCHUTES Less than 21 % 21 to 42 % COOS DOUGLAS Over 42% JOSEPHINE JACKSON KLAMATH LAKE HARNEY MALHEUR CURRY Source: U.S. Census Bureau Office of Economic Analysis

  5. Population change in the U.S. and the Western states, 2000-2010 Office of Economic Analysis Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 & 2010

  6. Components of population change during economic boom and recovery periods 1990-2000 2008-2014 Office of Economic Analysis Source: Census Bureau, and OEA

  7. Components of population change: 2010-14 and 2015-30 2010-2014 2015-2030 Office of Economic Analysis Source: Census Bureau

  8. Population Change in Percent, 2000-2030 Oregon: 42.3% COLUMBIA CLATSOP HOOD RIVER WASHINGTON SHERMAN MULTNOMAH WALLOWA TILLAMOOK UMATILLA MORROW GILLIAM UNION YAMHILL CLACKAMAS WASCO POLK MARION WHEELER BAKER JEFFERSON LINCOLN GRANT BENTON LINN CROOK LANE DESCHUTES Less than 21 % 21 to 42 % COOS DOUGLAS Over 42% JOSEPHINE JACKSON KLAMATH LAKE HARNEY MALHEUR CURRY Source: U.S. Census Bureau Office of Economic Analysis

  9. Young-age Population:1980-2030 Office of Economic Analysis Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; CPRC/PSU; OEA

  10. Working-age Population:1980-2030 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; OEA Office of Economic Analysis

  11. Elderly Population:1980-2030 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Office of Economic Analysis Office of Economic Analysis

  12. Budget Driver Populations: Past and Future Decades 2000-15 and 2015-30 Sources: Census Bureau; OR Office of Economic Analysis Office of Economic Analysis

  13. Average number of working-ageadults per elderly Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Office of Economic Analysis Office of Economic Analysis

  14. Household Income, 2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimate Office of Economic Analysis

  15. Oregon’s Economic Trends

  16. Oregon Economic Update Statewide job growth continues with employment levels now surpassing pre-recession levels Job growth of 3% significantly outpaces the typical state In past 18 months, rapid wage gains as well Oregon’s recovery is now more broad-based across regions and industries Nearly 9 out of 10 Oregon counties are adding jobs, matching what was seen during past economic expansions All of Oregon’s major industries have added jobs since the depths of the Great Recession Notably, even durable goods manufacturers have seen employment rise by more than 13% Professional and business services, health services, and leisure and hospitality industries are leading employment growth, accounting for 48% of all jobs added over the past year Real estate agents, publishers and local governments are among the weaker industries The outlook calls for Oregon to continue to outperform the typical state should the nationwide economic expansion continue Oregon’s population growth advantage has returned Oregon’s major manufacturers remain on stable footing but are at risk from weakness among major trading partners 3

  17. Great RecessionWorst recession since the Great DepressionMay 2015 employment 3.3 million above pre-recession levels

  18. Oregon Historical ComparisonUnfortunately Oregon has been here before May 2015 employment 1.5% above pre-recession peak

  19. Recovery Now More Broad-BasedSecond tier metros surging, rural Oregon growing • The Portland metropolitan area, the primary economic engine in the Oregon economy, is leading the State’s strong recovery

  20. Oregon’s Lost Decade Over?It has been a rough 15 years but we’re through, at least for now

  21. Unemployment Rate by Region, May 2015(Not seasonally adjusted for counties) Oregon: 5.3% (seasonally adjusted: 5.3 %) U. S.: 5.3% (seasonally adjusted: 5.5%) Northeast Oregon 5.9 % Portland MSA 4.7% Northern Coast 5.7% Columbia Gorge 5.2% Willamette Valley 5.5% Central Oregon 5.7% Southern Oregon 6.9% South Central/Southeast Oregon 6.6% Southern Coast 7.1%

  22. Oregon ExportsStrong Trading Ties with Pacific Rim Countries

  23. Oregon Housing PermitsActually underbuilding in some locations relative to population growth, data through May 2015

  24. State Revenue Trends

  25. General Fund Forecast Comparison Fiscal Years, in Millions

  26. Lottery Resources Better economy and new video lottery terminals result in strong sales growth today

  27. State Expenditure Trendsand Budget Drivers

  28. Legislatively Adopted Budget 2015-17 Total Funds

  29. Legislatively Approved Budget 2015-17 General Fund and Lottery Funds Combined * Includes beginning balance & carry forward

  30. General Fund and Lottery FundsBudget Trends Overall Expenditure General Fund and Lottery Trends General Fund & Lottery Funds Budgets Over Past Four Biennia $18,899 million $16,728 million $14,659 million $13,601 million

  31. General Fund and Lottery Funds by Program Area State School Fund Level

  32. Updated 11/29/12 Expenditures by CategoryGeneral Fund and Lottery Funds 2013-15 Governor’s Recommended Budget Total: $16,244 million

  33. 2015-17 Full-Time Equivalent Positions Total: 38,616* * Does not include Universities; does not foot because of rounding

  34. What has caused the General Fund expenditure growth since 1989? • Primary • Population • Initiatives • Policy decisions • Secondary • Inflation • Lawsuits

  35. State and Local Resources for K-12 School Funding

  36. Oregon Educational Goals 40-40-20 Target

  37. Oregon University System Revenue Per Student FTE

  38. Violent Crime Rates

  39. Facility Date Opened – (Capacity) Primary Use: Minimum Medium Maximum All Custody Women/Intake Prior to 1990 Eastern Oregon CI 1985 – (1,767) South Fork FC 1951 – (204) Oregon State Penitentiary 1866 – (2,308) Oregon State CI 1955 – (894) Powder River CF 1989 – (316) Santiam CI 1977 – (440)

  40. Facility Date Opened – (Capacity) Primary Use: Minimum Medium Maximum All Custody Women/Intake Prior to 2000 Eastern Oregon CI 1985 – (1,767) Columbia River CI 1990 – (593) South Fork FC 1951 – (204) Oregon State Penitentiary 1866 – (2,308) Oregon State CI 1955 – (894) Powder River CF 1989 – (316) Santiam CI 1977 – (440) Mill Creek CF 1990 – (290) Snake River CI 1991 – (2,948) Shutter Creek CI 1990 – (302)

  41. Facility Date Opened – (Capacity) Primary Use: Minimum Medium Maximum All Custody Women/Intake Today Two Rivers CI 2000 – (1,802) Eastern Oregon CI 1985 – (1,767) Columbia River CI 1990 – (593) South Fork FC 1951 – (204) Coffee Creek CF 2001-02 – (1,759) Oregon State Penitentiary 1866 – (2,308) Oregon State CI 1955 – (894) Powder River CF 1989 – (316) Santiam CI 1977 – (440) Mill Creek CF 1990 – (290) Deer Ridge CI 2007 – (1,867) Snake River CI 1991 – (2,948) Shutter Creek CI 1990 – (302) Warner Creek CF 2005 – (436)

  42. Department of State Police2011-13 Governor’s Balanced BudgetSworn Patrol Positions

  43. Poverty Rate, 1999 Oregon: 11.6% CLATSOP COLUMBIA HOOD RIVER WASHINGTON SHERMAN MULTNOMAH UMATILLA WALLOWA TILLAMOOK MORROW GILLIAM UNION YAMHILL CLACKAMAS WASCO POLK MARION WHEELER BAKER JEFFERSON LINCOLN GRANT BENTON LINN % of persons under poverty CROOK LANE DESCHUTES > 15 % 10 – 15 % COOS DOUGLAS Less than 10 % JOSEPHINE KLAMATH LAKE HARNEY MALHEUR CURRY JACKSON Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Office of Economic Analysis

  44. Poverty Rate, 2004 Oregon: 12.9% CLATSOP COLUMBIA HOOD RIVER WASHINGTON SHERMAN MULTNOMAH UMATILLA WALLOWA TILLAMOOK MORROW GILLIAM UNION YAMHILL CLACKAMAS WASCO POLK MARION WHEELER BAKER JEFFERSON LINCOLN GRANT BENTON LINN % of persons under poverty CROOK LANE DESCHUTES > 15 % 10 – 15 % COOS DOUGLAS Less than 10 % JOSEPHINE KLAMATH LAKE HARNEY MALHEUR CURRY JACKSON Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Data Integration Division, Small Area Estimates Branch Office of Economic Analysis

  45. Estimated Poverty Rate, 2008 Oregon: 13.5% CLATSOP COLUMBIA HOOD RIVER WASHINGTON SHERMAN MULTNOMAH UMATILLA WALLOWA TILLAMOOK MORROW GILLIAM UNION YAMHILL CLACKAMAS WASCO POLK MARION WHEELER BAKER JEFFERSON LINCOLN GRANT BENTON LINN % of persons under poverty CROOK LANE DESCHUTES > 15 % 10 – 15 % COOS DOUGLAS Less than 10 % JOSEPHINE KLAMATH LAKE HARNEY MALHEUR CURRY JACKSON Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Estimates Branch Office of Economic Analysis

  46. Estimated Poverty Rate, 2009 Oregon: 14.3% CLATSOP COLUMBIA HOOD RIVER WASHINGTON SHERMAN MULTNOMAH UMATILLA WALLOWA TILLAMOOK MORROW GILLIAM UNION YAMHILL CLACKAMAS WASCO POLK MARION WHEELER BAKER JEFFERSON LINCOLN GRANT BENTON LINN % of persons under poverty CROOK LANE DESCHUTES > 15 % 10 – 15 % COOS DOUGLAS Less than 10 % JOSEPHINE KLAMATH LAKE HARNEY MALHEUR CURRY JACKSON Office of Economic Analysis Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Estimates Branch

  47. Estimated Poverty Rate, 2010 Oregon: 15.8% CLATSOP COLUMBIA HOOD RIVER WASHINGTON SHERMAN MULTNOMAH UMATILLA WALLOWA TILLAMOOK MORROW GILLIAM UNION YAMHILL CLACKAMAS WASCO POLK MARION WHEELER BAKER JEFFERSON LINCOLN GRANT BENTON LINN % of persons under poverty CROOK LANE DESCHUTES > 15 % 10 – 15 % COOS DOUGLAS Less than 10 % JOSEPHINE KLAMATH LAKE HARNEY MALHEUR CURRY JACKSON Office of Economic Analysis Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Estimates Branch

  48. Estimated Poverty Rate, 2013 Oregon: 16.5%; U.S. 15.8% CLATSOP COLUMBIA HOOD RIVER WASHINGTON SHERMAN MULTNOMAH UMATILLA WALLOWA TILLAMOOK MORROW GILLIAM UNION YAMHILL CLACKAMAS WASCO POLK MARION WHEELER BAKER JEFFERSON LINCOLN GRANT BENTON LINN % of persons under poverty CROOK LANE DESCHUTES 20 % and over 18 - 20 % COOS DOUGLAS 14 - 18 % Less than 12 % JOSEPHINE KLAMATH LAKE HARNEY MALHEUR CURRY JACKSON Office of Economic Analysis Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimate

  49. Temporary Assistance toNeedy Families – 1969-present 1993 Client Self-Sufficiency Plans 1973 Recession 1981 Recession 1996 Federal TANF Reforms 1990 Recession 2007 Recession 2001 Recession Total Persons Total Cases

  50. Oregon Health Care Uninsurance Rates: 1990-2013 Adults 18-64 Children 0-17 Sources: Oregon Population Survey, 1990-2006; American Community Survey, 2008-2013 *Please note that OPS uninsurance estimates are collected every two years and ACS data is collected annually

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