A Review & Classification of Petroleum Resource Base in Thailand

1. A Review & Classification of Petroleum Resource Base in Thailand Anon Punnahitanon Petroleum Engineer Mineral Fuel Division Department of Mineral Resources

2. Objectives Review Current Petroleum Resource Classification System Currently used in DMR Reclassify Petroleum Resources & Reserves into the Same Classification System Estimate Petroleum Resource Base Outlook on the Petroleum Industry of the Country

3. Outline Resource Classification System Reserve Definition Resource Evaluation Reserve Development Resource Base @ end 2001 Resource Lifecycle & Reserve Growth Projection

4. Resource Classification System

5. Resources (Recoverable Resources) Petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward Undiscovered Resources Total estimated quantities to be recovered from accumulations that remainto be discovered Discovered Resources Total discovered deliverable quantities based on in place volume and recovery factor Speculative Not yet been mapped Hypothetical Mapped prospects Reserves Aticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward Potential Resources Not commercially producible at present

6. Reserves Petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward Proved Reserves Estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recovered Unproved Reserves Less certain to be recovered than proved reserves Probable reserves More likely than not to be recovered Possible reserves Less likely than likely to be recovered Developed Reserves Expected to be recovered form existing wells Undeveloped Reserves Expected to be recovered with additional capital investment

7. Reserve Definitions

8. Reserves Contributing Factors Reserves Economic Conditions Government Regulations Historical prices/costs Operating Methods

9. Reserves Deterministic vs. Probabilistic

10. Possible ? Probable ? Proved ? Probabilistic Estimation Probability Cum. Probability 90 th percentile Mean Mean, P50 10 th percentile 90 th percentile 10 th percentile Value Value

11. Probabilistic Estimation (Cont’d) Probability Which one is the most confident ? Mode Geometric Mean Median 10 th percentile 90 th percentile Value

12. Applying Statistics in Reserves Estimation Probabilistic estimate is very useful to form an uncertainty range of and estimation. Its implication is “what the safe sideof the estimate and what the outrageous one are” If statistical method is to be used, each reserve category should be assessed on different basis to reflect its inherent different level of confidence in data from which it is derived. Criteria in assessing level of confidence is qualitatively spelled out in SPE/WPC definitions.

13. Caution Because of potential differences in uncertainty, caution should be exercised when aggregating different reserve classification

14. Resource / Reserve Assessment

15. Petroleum Provinces Northern Intermontane Central Plain Northeastern Gulf of Thailand The Andaman Sea

16. Estimated Undiscovered Resources

17. Estimated Discovered Resources Potential Recoveries Ultimate Recovery Natural Gas (BCF) Oil (MMBBLS) Condensate (MMBBLS) 924 1,025 37.3

18. Total Resource Base

19. Thailand Petroleum Proved Reserves 1979-2001

20. Field Growth or Reserve Growth An Increase in Ultimate Recovery (Proved Reserves + Cumulative Production) Annual Field Growth (AFG) = UR AFG n n UR n-1 Cumulative Field Growth (CFG) = UR UR * UR * ...* CFG n n 2 1

21. 120 100 % 80 60 Ultimate Recovery Potential 40 20 0 Proved + Production Unproved Potential Undiscovered Resources Petroleum Resource Lifecycle

22. 120 120 100 100 80 80 Cumulative Growth Factor Cumulative Growth Factor 60 60 y y = = 71 71 . . 106 106 Ln Ln ( ( x x ) ) - - 167 167 . . 75 75 40 40 20 20 0 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 Year Year Natural Gas Reserve Cumulative Growth

23. 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 Cumulative Growth Factor Cumulative Growth Factor y y = = 23 23 . . 268 268 Ln Ln ( ( x x ) ) - - 47 47 . . 113 113 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 Year Crude Oil Reserve Cumulative Growth

24. Natural Gas Resource Outlook 55.1 TCF ? 18.2 TCF 32% Undiscovered Resources + Potential Recovery 36.9 TCF 68% Unproved Reserves 2002 2022

25. Crude Oil Resource Outlook 1,276 MMBBLS ? 352 MMBBLS 28% 913 MMBBLS 72% 2002 2023

26. 60 60 50 50 40 40 Oil Oil 30 30 Condensate Condensate Gas Gas 20 20 10 10 1976 1976 1978 1978 1980 1980 1982 1982 1984 1984 1986 1986 1988 1988 1990 1990 1992 1992 1994 1994 1996 1996 1998 1998 2000 2000 2002 2002 2004 2004 Thailand Petroleum Proved Reserves 1979 - 2001 17 Years

27. Summary DMR’s Current Classification System is Reviewed Estimated Petroleum Resource Base for Oil, Condensate and Natural Gas are 1,276 MMBBLS, 1,288 MMBBLS, and 55 TCF, Respectively Total Reserves are 924 MMBBLS Oil,1025 MMBBLS Condensate,and 37.3 TCF Natural Gas

28. Summary (Cont’d) Projection of Reserve Growth for Oil and Gas shows that total Reserves will sustain the Growth for the Next 20 Years Petroleum Industry has Past Mature Stage with Total Ultimate Recovery for Oil and Natural Gas 72% and 68 % of Total Resource Base