Net Energy  Ne x t Energy by Ron Swenson

1. Net Energy  Next Energyby Ron Swenson www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

2. Swenson Curve To avoid deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution. www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson

3. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment Net Energy Production begin investment before decline Begin investment during decline www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

4. A flurry of books: What’s going down… www.HubbertPeak.com/Library

5. Okay, we know what’s going down … But what’s coming up?

6. Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” (1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

7. The Party's Over “Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.” Richard Heinberg www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

8. Beyond Oil “Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities...” Kenneth S. Deffeyes www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

9. I thought we were talking about Energy!? So how did Economics (an instrument of policy) get into the picture?

10. Oil, Jihad & Destiny “Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.” Ronald R. Cooke www.HubbertPeak.com/Youngquist

11. The Long Emergency “… solar power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel … James Howard Kunstler www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

12. Oil Addiction: The World in Peril “But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is consuming...” Pierre Chomat www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

13. Global Solar Energy Balance www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

14. Energy State and Quality (Grade) Tell that to a street vendor in Mexico City. … unless you consider depletion, ecological footprint of extraction, or the implications of ephemeral technology. “In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels. [] “The EROI for fossil fuels tends to be large while that for solar tends to be low. “Higher energy densities also contribute to the higher EROI for fossil fuels relative to many renewable fuels.” Cutler Cleveland … and what is the premise of converting solar fieldenergy into fuel in the first place? Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

15. Thermodynamics of Coal Plus… • Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land • Water contamination • People displaced • Extraction uses oil 1 BOE EROI = 927 ~ electric quality

16. Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … • Pennsylvania? • Saudi Arabia? • Off-shore? Plus … • Ravaged land/oceans • Greenhouse gases • Water contamination EROI = 10±

17. Thermodynamics of Nuclear Plus … • Depletion • Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process • Waste guard for 10,000+ years … How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland? EROI = 4 12 ~ electric

18. Thermodynamics of Tar Sands Plus… • Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land • Water contamination • Extraction uses natural gas Why bother?! EROI = 3

19. Thermodynamics of Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROI = -½

20. Thermodynamics of PV • EROI: 5 years • Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROI = 1030 ~ electric

21. Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV • EROI: 6 months • Life: 20 years EROI = 40120 ~electric

22. Thermodynamics of Wind • EROI: 3 months • Life: 20 years EROI = 80240 ~ electric

23. Back to State & Quality (grade) … How does ERoEI analysis embrace these factors? Time / sustainability oil depletion: Inevitable degradation of quality. solar endurance: “Low” quality starts to make sense. Land use / ecological footprint Uranium tailings: Most dense becomes the most diffuse. Open pit coal mines: Density depends on measuring stick. It’s even an issue with Solar: PV on roofs ≠ PV in deserts. Security / Energy drain on future generations Nuclear Power  M.A.D.:ERoEI goes astronomically negative. Oil Wars: How much energy does it take to protect energy? Solar: Power satellites are weapons, not energy technology. Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

24.  Next Energy www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

25. Since oil is big in the transportation sector… … a short history lesson. How did transportation transform? • from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to • liquid fuels (oil) And where do we go from here?

26. Lest we forget …They did bring coal to Newcastle.

27. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832... If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result … ...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841

28. No joke! The original buggy whip protest

29. The Horseless Carriage

30. From GridLock to Gas Lines

31. Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

32. Back to solid fuels?

33. The All-New DonCar! www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport

34. Electricity. Not exactly a new idea… … and it is ephemeral, like solar power. Lift? See? Touch? A match made in heaven.

35. The Electric Rail

36. Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) www.ecotopia.com/ST

37. Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge) 14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day 30 -- 60 Terawatts 450 – 900 MBOE/day The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = [Renewables] www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley

38. PV Oil PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr PV increases at 50%/yr

39. Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! “Think TeraWatts” www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

40. Taking it one step further … • You may think I’m pushing solar? • Yes and no. The main point is … • Prevailing sentiments cannot blind us from seeing the solutions with the best ERoEI… • And we cannot be fixated on direct substitution of oil with liquid fuels, especially given the historic role of oil and the myriad advantages of electric transport.

41. ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

42. Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place… • ERoEI of biofuels may be too low for urban transport… (not to mention smog, congestion, hazard) • Fuels will remain essential for: • Airplanes • Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs) • Agriculture www.ecotopia.com/ST

43. Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.” 1996 www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell

44. Solar Industry Response? Inconsistent Goals • 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠ • 200 gW by 2030 = 10% How to get there? • Federal government procurement $100 m/year • R&D investment $250 m/year by 2010 • “Enact, modify, establish, boost, support, increase, strengthen, grow…” Inadequate www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2

45. Global Warming over the Past Millennium Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change. Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)

46. The conclusions are simple: • We arenot doing enough fast enough. • To spend our depleting energy capital resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives. • Then we must act quickly with resolve. Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?

47.  Next Energy www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

48. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.