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Agenda

Agenda. Project overview (brief) Modeling update (preliminary results) Next steps… Integration pathways . Modeling status update: 11/13/2012. Domain: catchments with range of MPB and dust impacts; varying hydro-climatology, . Distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM). Fish Cr.

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Agenda

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  1. Agenda • Project overview (brief) • Modeling update (preliminary results) • Next steps… • Integration pathways

  2. Modeling status update: 11/13/2012 Domain: catchments with range of MPB and dust impacts; varying hydro-climatology, Distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) Fish Cr. Boulder Cr. Snake R. Uncompaghre R. Painter et al., 2010 Land-cover, meteorology, and desert dust Explore hydrologic impacts and sensitivities Q (m3/s) Month Discharge (Q) magnitude and timing Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) www.nsf.org

  3. Current modeling status • Snake R. set-up complete – other (3) river basins nearly ready… • Local precip./temperature still open issues; Spatial improvements in cold-season precip. from Molotch et al. (SWE recon.). • **Preliminary** sensitivities complete • Calibrations hinge upon resolving precip./temperature issues… (examining individual years)

  4. Modeling system Relevant Details: Dust-on-snow: Observation-based dust loading/snow albedo scenarios MPB: Satellite derived LAI-change MPB: Vegetation classification 100 m spatial resolution -Courtesy Jeff Deems

  5. 500m MODIS satellite imagery (2002-2011) Example: Snake R. • Flows into Dillon Reservoir – Denver Water • Changes in leaf-area index (LAI) used to characterize beetle kill • Explore ‘end-points’, 2000 - 2011 Max. LAI: 2003 Snake R. MPB Scenario: Apply maximum MPB impact to Evergreen areas, reducing canopy LAI Dust scenarios: Alter modeled snow albedos based on observed dust impacts. Max. LAI: 2006 -Courtesy Brian Buma -Courtesy Jeff Deems

  6. Preliminary results

  7. Model Results: Snake R. • Considerable increase in spatial detail when using Molotch et al. SWE reconstruction to distribute winter precip (versus PRISM). PRISM Molotch et al. SWE recon. Cold season precip distribution SWE 1 Apr., 2005 SWE 1 Apr., 2005 SWE (m) SWE (m)

  8. Model Results: Snake R. • MPB leads to higher accumulation of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) • Considerable variation between wet and dry years (not shown) CONTROL: Moderate dust, no beetle impact Scenario: Maximum MPB impact Residual Avg. SWE 1 Apr. Difference Map Avg. SWE 1 Apr. SWE change (m) SWE (m) SWE (m) More Less

  9. Relative model sensitivities • Dust enhances snowmelt • Opposing effect of MPB on SWE, non-uniform, asynchronous… Photo: Chris Landry www.denverpost.org Relative dust impacts Combined MPB & Dust Relative MPB impacts WY2006 WY2006 WY2006 Low Moderate Extreme Low & Full MPB Moderate Extreme & Full MPB None Full MPB SWE (mm) Month Month Month

  10. Preliminary Model Streamflow Results • Changes in melt rate control peak runoff timing and magnitude (dust) • MPB impacts also affect warm-season flow (reduced evapotranspiration) Averaged 2000-2011 water years Averaged 2000-2011 water years Averaged 2000-2011 water years Combined MPB & Dust Relative dust impacts Relative MPB impacts Low & Full MPB Moderate Extreme & Full MPB Low Moderate Extreme None Full MPB Discharge @ Montezuma (m3/s) Month Month Month +11.6% +9.1% +9.9% +1.8% +1.1% Water Yield (ac-ft/year) Water Yield (ac-ft/year) Water Yield (ac-ft/year)

  11. Preliminary Conclusions • Dust-on-snow enhances snowmelt, causing earlier peak streamflow • MPB leads to higher SWE accumulation • Model sensitivities from Snake R. show reduction of canopy cover increases water yield on the order of 10% • Work in progress – compare other 3 basin responses, incorporate satellite-based MPB propagation patterns, greater spatial extents • Potential points of integration with CBRFC: • Adjust melt factors? • Adjust ET demand?

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