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British Columbia Economic Outlook

British Columbia Economic Outlook. Carol Frketich, BC Regional Economist. British Columbia Overview. Strong Domestic Economy. Record Low Unemployment. Real Income Growth. Low Inflation & Declining Interest Rates. Global demand for commodities. Western Canada Leads Economic Growth.

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British Columbia Economic Outlook

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  1. British ColumbiaEconomic Outlook Carol Frketich, BC Regional Economist

  2. British Columbia Overview • Strong Domestic Economy • Record Low Unemployment • Real Income Growth • Low Inflation & Declining Interest Rates • Global demand for commodities

  3. Western Canada Leads Economic Growth Annual growth in real GDP Sources: Statistics Canada, CMHC forecast

  4. BC’s Domestic Economy is Strong • Investment • Infrastructure – 228 major projects (over $20 million) started in the Lower Mainland alone – estimated value $53 billion • RAV line - $1.9 billion • Vancouver airport expansion - $1.8 billion • Vancouver convention centre - $883 million • Golden Ears Bridge - $650 million

  5. M&E investment - Mining • 2007 Investment in mining exploration reached a record $416 million • Overall, there were 472 exploration stage projects in BC in 2007. • Oil and gas rights reached over $1billion in 2007, shattering previous record of $647 million set in 2003. # Wells Drilled Source: Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources

  6. Residential Investment adds to growth Total BC Housing Starts, units Source: CMHC Forecast

  7. Renovation and New Construction $ billions New Construction $8.8 billion in 2008 Renovation $7.0 billion in 2008 Sources: Statistics Canada historical, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation forecast (F)

  8. BC’s Domestic Economy is Strong • Investment • Infrastructure • Machinery and equipment • Residential • Labour Markets • Growth industries

  9. BC’s Tight Labour Market Annual increase in employment, thousands of jobs Unemployment rate, per cent Ontario BC Alberta Source: Statistics Canada

  10. Top Ten BC Growth Industries Source: Statistics Canada, BC Business Council

  11. BC’s Domestic Economy is Strong • Investment • Infrastructure • Machinery and equipment • Residential • Labour Markets • Growth industries • Retail sector • Consumer confidence • Population growth

  12. Consumer Confidence Trending Lower Consumer Confidence, 1991=100 US Sub-prime concerns surface Energy Price Spike Source: Conference Board of Canada

  13. Migration & Population Growth People Net International Net Interprovincial Sources: Statistics Canada and CMHC forecast

  14. Trade Sector Challenges & Opportunities • Port of Prince Rupert • High Commodity prices • High C$ • US housing slump Thousands of units, SAAR Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  15. Commodity Prices Surged US$ index; 1997 = 100; annual average Source: TD Economics

  16. Inflation in Canada Trending Lower Consumer Price Inflation, per cent Canada Total CPI Canada Core CPI Source: Bank of Canada

  17. Risks to the Outlook

  18. BC Key Economic Indicators Sources: Statistics Canada, CMHC Housing Market Outlook Q2 2008

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