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Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?

Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?. Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR Dr. Brian A. Colle brian.colle@stonybrook.edu. Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service. Survey Questions:

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Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations?

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  1. Survey: Why Limited Use of Ensembles in Operations? Stony Brook University-SUNY CSTAR Dr. Brian A. Colle brian.colle@stonybrook.edu

  2. Purpose: To rank the potential issues of using ensembles in operations within the National Weather Service. Survey Questions: What is your current position? (operational forecaster, manager/admin, researcher, and model developer) How often do you use ensembles? Why are ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? Weight each issue from “not a problem” (= 1) to “one of the largest problems” (= 5) Rank the 8 provided issues from the largest problem to the smallest issue/problem. Open Ended Question: Other written comments regarding the difficulty in using ensembles in operations.

  3. Survey open from 9 November 2011 to 15 December 2011. Sent to all SOOs (many forwarded to other forecasters), managers, and model developers within the NWS, as well as 15-20 faculty/students at universities doing ensemble research. * The results in the following slides are separated into the following sections. Number of responses are in the ( ) All responses (166) Operational Forecasters (111) Admin / Managers (37) Researchers and Model Developers (18) Forecasters who sometimes or never use ensembles (50) Forecasters who use ensembles often or always (61) * For each section above, there are two sets of plots for questions # 3 and 4 to show the average value/rank and another to show the distribution of responses.

  4. Distribution of Responses

  5. How often do you use ensembles?

  6. 3 = 32% 2 = 35% 1 = 31% 2 = 36% Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest) Top Median Response Number Also Shown and Percent 2 = 30% 3 = 32% 3 = 31% 3 = 32%

  7. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be?

  8. #1 = 23% #8 = 19% #8 = 25% #5 = 19% Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations Top Median Rank Number Also Shown and Percent #4 = 19% #5 = 17% #6 = 17% #2 = 32%

  9. Operational Forecaster Results Only

  10. How often do you use ensembles?

  11. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  12. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  13. Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  14. Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  15. Manager/Admin Results Only

  16. How often do you use ensembles?

  17. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  18. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  19. Researcher / Model Developer

  20. How often do you use ensembles?

  21. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  22. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  23. Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  24. Operational Forecasterswho sometimes or never look at ensembles

  25. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  26. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  27. Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  28. Operational Forecasterswho always or often look at ensembles

  29. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  30. Why Ensembles not used in operations as much as they could be? (1=Not a problem, 2 = Minor, 3= Moderate, 4 = Major, 5= One of Biggest)

  31. Average Rank of the issues (from 1 to 8) limiting ensemble usage in operations

  32. Conclusions Nearly all forecasters use ensembles; however, only ~45% use them “sometimes.” Each ensemble issue has a large distribution of rankings (some problems were considered major for some and minor for others) – so there are a variety of opinions as illustrated by the open ended questions. The highest ranked issues are (1) the lack of tool/graphics, (2) ensemble data access, and (3) ensemble training. For forecasters who “sometimes use ensembles,” it appears that the time to view/interpret ensembles is also an issue (ranked #3). Some of this may be from the lack of good tools and data access as suggested by their open ended questions. Managers/admin view the issue of time to view/interpret ensembles as the smallest problem on average (ranked #8). Most or all researchers and model developers use ensembles. They clearly believe that the lack of tool/graphics is the largest issue.

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