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Basic Questions of Interest at the Moment

From General to Specific: A Primer on the Basic Traits of the Crisis on Emerging Market Economies with Turkey as a Representative Case October 06, 2009. Basic Questions of Interest at the Moment. What are the basic problems the world system seems to be facing at the moment?

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Basic Questions of Interest at the Moment

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  1. From General to Specific: A Primer on the Basic Traits of the Crisis on Emerging Market Economies with Turkey as a Representative Case October 06, 2009 1

  2. Basic Questions of Interest at the Moment • What are the basic problems the world system seems to be facing at the moment? • Are global imbalances here to stay or will they be eliminated surely but slowly or even better disappear quite fast? • What will the engine of growth for the world economy or are there none in sight at the moment? • How likely is decoupling in the near future? • How is an important and sizeable emerging market like Turkey affected in this crisis and are there any stories that come out from her experience? • Are there any paradigmatic shifts in the way analysts may be thinking about growth dynamics in emerging markets? • What does the fiscal picture look like for developed and emerging market economies? (Please refer to IMF FAD presentation which is provided as an addendum) 2

  3. GDP Growth Source: TURKSTAT 3

  4. GDP Growth Source: TURKSTAT 4

  5. Bond Rates & O/N Source: ISE, CBRT 5

  6. GENERAL GOVERNMENT NOMINAL DEBT STOCK (EU-DEFINITION) / GDP Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 6

  7. General government consolidated gross debt as a percentage of GDP Source: EUROSTAT 7

  8. Net Public Debt Stock / GDP Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 8

  9. Revenues vs. Non-interest Expenditures (Real) Source: General Directorate of Public Accounts, YK Economic Research 9

  10. Current Account Deficit (6-Month Rolling) Source: CBRT, TDM, YK Economic Research 10

  11. Relative Currency Performances 31 December 2007= 1.00 Source: Reuters, YK Economic Research 11

  12. Relative Currency Performances 31 December 2008= 1.00 Source: Reuters, YK Economic Research 12

  13. MSCI Indices (31 Dec 2007 =1.0) Source: Reuters, YK Economic Research 13

  14. MSCI Indices (31 Dec 2008 =1.0) Source: Reuters, YK Economic Research 14

  15. Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets 15

  16. Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets 16

  17. Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets 17

  18. Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets 18

  19. Turkey vs. Selected Emerging Markets 19

  20. Percentage of Those Living on Less Than 2$ Per Day (PPP Adjusted) Source: World Bank 20

  21. Percentage of Those Living on Less Than1$ Per Day (PPP Adjusted) Source: World Bank 21

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