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Drought monitoring and mapping in Indonesia under current and future climate conditions

BMKG. Drought monitoring and mapping in Indonesia under current and future climate conditions. Mamenun 1 , Ronald Vernimmen 2 mamenun@bmkg.go.id , mamenun@gmail.com ronald.vernimmen@deltares.nl. 1 Meteorological Climatological and Geophysiscal Agency of Indonesia (BMKG)

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Drought monitoring and mapping in Indonesia under current and future climate conditions

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  1. BMKG Drought monitoring and mapping in Indonesia under current and future climate conditions Mamenun1, Ronald Vernimmen2 mamenun@bmkg.go.id , mamenun@gmail.com ronald.vernimmen@deltares.nl 1 Meteorological Climatological and Geophysiscal Agency of Indonesia (BMKG) Jl. Angkasa I No. 2 , Jakarta 10720 Indonesia 2 Deltares, P.O.Box 177. 2600 MH, Delft, the Netherlands International workshop on the Digitation of Historical Climate Data, the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the Asian Region, Citeko 2-5 April 2012

  2. Outline • Background • Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) • Drought Monitoring & Mapping • a. Using ground stations • b. Using sattellite observations • Validation TRMM satellite data withground stations • Monthly average • Monthly deficit precipitation • Next steps • Agroclimatic mapping • Drought occurance in the future • Summary BMKG

  3. Background

  4. Joint Cooperation Programme Joint Cooperation Program BMKG PusAir KNMI Deltares Component A; General Institutional Development Component B; Collborative Development of Customized and Standardized IWRM tools and Approaches Component C; Supporting the Development of Consistent Datasets Component D; Operational Management Support: Drought and Flood Monitoring and Warning BMKG

  5. Joint Cooperation Programme JCP Framework BMKG

  6. Building DEWMS Indonesia System based on Delft-OMS = Delft-FEWS • Open Shell Forecasting System • System for operational forecasting (resilience !) • Fully configurable by users (Open Interface to models and data) • Platform for operational research (Short cycle from research to operations) • Java, PostgreSQL/Oracle, Jboss, XML • Operating system independent, very scalable • Toolbox for development of forecasting systems • Highly modular structure – independent modules provide functionality • Rapid implementation, scalable & flexible • Automatic / manual & stand alone http://publicwiki.deltares.nl/display/FEWSDOC/Home BMKG

  7. Building DEWMS Indonesia Concept • Delft-OMS • import • validation • transformation / interpolation • data hierarchy • general adapter • export / report • administration (data, forecasts) • viewing (data, forecasts) • archiving • … data feeds PI models import export & dessimination BMKG

  8. Building DEWMS Indonesia BMKG BMKG

  9. Drought monitoring & mapping A. Using Ground Stations As a pilot, for the Pemali Comal catchment in Central Java, manual ground measurements of rainfall serve as input for calculation of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). BMKG

  10. Drought monitoring & mapping A key feature of the SPI is the flexibility to measure drought at different time scales. Short term droughts of 1 month (SPI-01) defined by specific regional climatology; Agricultural important droughts over 3 to 6 months (SPI-03, SPI-06) resulting in deficits in soil moisture; Longer term droughts (months to years) have impact on surface and groundwater supplies. The severity of a drought can be compared to the average condition for a particular station or region. Values range from 2.00 and above (extremely wet) to -2.00 and less (extremely dry) with near normal conditions ranging from 0.99 to -0.99. BMKG

  11. Drought monitoring & mapping Timeseries for individual stations are calculated BMKG

  12. Drought monitoring & mapping SPI-1 SPI-3 SPI-6 SPI-12 (April 2007) BMKG

  13. Drought monitoring & mapping B. Using Satellite Observations Validation of TRMM 3B42RT (TMPA) satellite data with ground stations on monthly basis Source : *Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 133-146, doi:10.5194/hess-16-133-2012, 2012. BMKG

  14. Drought monitoring & mapping Correction Factor: TRMMCorr= 3.20 TRMM 0.79 Annual ground station and TMPA 3B42RT comparison before and after bias correction of TMPA 3B42RT precipitation estimates over the period 2003–2008. Source : *Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 133-146, doi:10.5194/hess-16-133-2012, 2012. BMKG

  15. Drought monitoring & mapping Dry season (June–October) ground station and TMPA 3B42RT comparison before and after bias correction of TMPA 3B42RT precipitation estimates over the period 2003–2008. Source : *Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 133-146, doi:10.5194/hess-16-133-2012, 2012. BMKG

  16. Drought monitoring & mapping Validation result Source : *Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 133-146, doi:10.5194/hess-16-133-2012, 2012. BMKG

  17. Drought monitoring & mapping Validation result BMKG

  18. Drought monitoring & mapping TRMM satellite data are used for improved rainfall monitoring and assessing the current drought status. TRMM 3B42RT satellite precipitation (in mm) over Indonesia on 28 March 2012 19:00 WIB. BMKG

  19. Drought monitoring & mapping TRMM 3B42RT satellite precipitation aggregated to monthly totals are bias corrected using the method described in Vernimmen et al. 2012*,based on validation of TRMM 3B42RT with ground stations. Bias corrected TRMM 3B42RT satellite precipitation (in mm) over Indonesia in March 2012. *Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 133-146, doi:10.5194/hess-16-133-2012, 2012. BMKG

  20. Drought monitoring & mapping Climatology (monthly average) from corrected TRMM3B42RT Monthly average on March 2012. BMKG

  21. Drought monitoring & mapping Climatology of corrected monthly TRMM 3B42RT is used to calculate ‘Sifat Hujan’ (monthly rainfall compared to long-term average). ‘Sifat Hujan’ March 2012. Yellow is normal conditions, orange is drier while green is wetter compared to long-term average BMKG

  22. Drought monitoring & mapping Monthly precipitation deficit is calculated. For evaporation, currently the CGIAR-PET* monthly dataset multiplied with a fixed crop factor of 0.8 is used. Global CGIAR-PET is a modelled dataset (1 km resolution) using data available from WorldClim Global Climate Data over the period 1950-2000. Precipitation deficit in March 2012. The precipitation deficit needs to be linked to drought indicators for different agricultural crops *http://www.cgiar-csi.org/data/item/51-global-aridity-and-pet-database BMKG

  23. Drought monitoring & mapping Deficit precipitation on watershed basin (DAS) for java location March 2012 *http://www.cgiar-csi.org/data/item/51-global-aridity-and-pet-database BMKG

  24. Drought monitoring & mapping Next Steps : Using the TRMM 3B42RT satellite precipitation the following will also be implemented (in progress): • Onset of dry season, defined as 3 consecutive decadal (10-day) periods with precipitation < 50 mm • Similarly, onset of the wet season 3. SPI 4. Peat fire forecasting (through running a peatland water budget model; ground water table depth is a better indicator for fire risk then precipitation alone) Other suggestions? ECMWF Seasonal Forecast data will be utilized in the near future as well. BMKG

  25. Agroclimatic mapping using satellite observations Oldeman agroclimatic maps for Indonesia based on corrected monthly TRMM satellite precipitation. Classification based on number of wet and dry months in a year. Wet month = long term average > 200 mm Dry month = long term average < 100 mm Historical maps (1980’s) based on ground stations measurements and used by ‘Pertanian’ (Ministry of Agriculture) Oldeman, L. R., Las, I., and Darwis, S. N.: An agroclimatic map of Sumatra, Contributions, Central Research Institute for Agriculture, Bogor, No. 52, 35 pp., 1979. Oldeman, L. R., Las, I., and Muladi: The agroclimatic maps of Kalimantan, Maluku, Irian Jaya and Bali, West and East Nusa Tenggara, Contributions, Central Research Institute for Agriculture, Bogor, No. 60, 32 pp., 1980. BMKG

  26. Oldeman classification 5 main zones A has more than 9 consecutive wet months. Wetland rice can be cultivated any time of the year. B has 7-9 consecutive wet months. Two wetland rice crops can be cultivated during this period. C has 5-6 consecutive wet months. Two rice crops can be cultivated only, if the first rice crop is planted (or sown) as a dry land crop (so-called gogorancah system). D has 3-4 consecutive wet months. Only one wetland rice crop is generally possible. E has less than 3 consecutive wet months. Without additional water from irrigation, wetland rice is not recommended. BMKG

  27. Oldeman classification These 5 main zones are subdivided based on length of dry season 1 less than 2 dry months. No restrictions are expected with regard to available water. 2 2-3 dry months. Careful planning is needed to grow crops throughout the year. 3 4-6 dry months. A fallow period is part of the rotation system because of water constraints. 4 7-9 dry months. Only one crop can successfully be cultivated. The remainder of the year is too dry. 5 more than 9 consecutive dry months. Areas in this subzone are generally not suitable for any cultivation of arable crops. BMKG

  28. Oldeman map Indonesia Oldeman agroclimatic map based on bias corrected monthly TRMM 3B42RT (left) compared to historical map (right) for Kalimantan BMKG

  29. Oldeman map Indonesia BMKG

  30. Schmidt-Ferguson Climatic map Similarly, the Schmidt-Ferguson (1951) climatic map is generated. Different definition of dry and wet month! dry: < 60 mm (whereas Oldeman < 100 mm) wet: > 100 mm (whereas Oldeman > 200 mm) BMKG

  31. Drought occurrence in the future Precipitation datasets from different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under different IPCC scenario’s will be processed using Delft-OMS and will be used to generate precipitation change, drought occurance, Oldeman maps, etc. These maps will help create an understanding of future drought vulnerabilities (which areas in Indonesia are vulnerable to climate change?) and will prepare for climate proofing of agricultural and water supply systems. The following GCM’s will be considered: BMKG

  32. Summary • Drought monitoring and mapping both using ground stations and validated sattellite observation has been made as part of the development of Drought Early Warning and Mapping System • The average monthly and characteristic of climatology (sifat hujan), deficit rainfall in Indonesia and java’s watershed basin is calculated based on the corrected satellite data • The correction sattellite data will be applied on calculating SPI index, decadal precipitation for wet and dry onset, peat fire forecasting, and climate type • ECMWF Seasonal Forecast data will be utilized in the near future as well. • The climate scenario will be applied to project the drought occurance in the future BMKG

  33. Thank You BMKG

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