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CalNex Forecast

CalNex Forecast. Prepared  Sunday 27 June 2010. Anticipated Flights. NOAA Twin Otter Sun:   two flights Mon:  potentially one flight?  Tue:   transit to LA Wed:  Mexico flight CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200 Sun:    AM/PM flights likely Mon:   AM/PM flights likely

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CalNex Forecast

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  1. CalNex Forecast Prepared  Sunday27 June 2010

  2. Anticipated Flights NOAA Twin Otter Sun:   two flights Mon:  potentially one flight?  Tue:   transit to LA Wed:  Mexico flight CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200 Sun:    AM/PM flights likely Mon:   AM/PM flights likely Tue:    MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

  3. Local Features - Sac area focus Sunday - synoptic flow weakens significantly, terrain driven flow with light W delta inflow coupled with upslope flow; pollutant concentrations build (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups forecast); CANSAC appears better solution than COAMPS today; weak flow to east in Sac (downtown to T0 flow doubtful; urban flow toward T1 with long transport time) but bulk of urban flow south of T1; winds <5 kts. Monday - high pressure ridge lingering - primarily terrain driven flow; light NW to W wind coupled with upslope flow in foothills; no or limited Delta inflow; with light winds, Sac air flows south of T1; USG air quality likely. Tuesday - smoke possible from prescribed burns in Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks.

  4. Synoptic Overview NOTE:  FORECAST NOT UPDATED FROM SATURDAY'S CALL (only change is that ridge slower to break down and Monday will be similar to Sunday)  Sunday June 27 • High Pressure peaks • Light and variable flow • Onshore gradient weakens Monday June 28  • High Pressure breaks down as Trof approaches • Transport flow SW north, Southerly south • Marine layer deepens in the north • Light and variable flow S.CA Tue – Thurs • Tue:   Deep Trof approaches, SW flow throughout • Wed:  Trof axis over N.CA late aftn-eve, SW flow, deeper marine layer • Thurs: Trof axis over Ca, W-NW flow in N.CA, W-SW in S.CA

  5. GFS and ECMWF Updated Sunday, June 27, 2010

  6. Analysis GFS – 00 Z Sunday – Sat 17 PDT

  7. 12 hour GFS – 12 Z Sunday – 05 PDT

  8. 24 hour GFS – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

  9. 36 hour GFS – 12 Z Monday – 05 PDT

  10. 48 hour GFS – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

  11. 60 hour GFS – 12 Z Tuesday – 05 PDT

  12. GFS 3 day – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  13. ECMWF 3 day – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

  14. 3.5 day GFS – 12 Z Wednesday – 05 PDT

  15. 4 day GFS – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

  16. 4 day ECMWF – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

  17. 5 day GFS – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

  18. 5 day ECMWF – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

  19. 1430 UTC

  20. Large Scale Transport RAQMS FX updated Sunday, June 27

  21. Large Scale Transport focus on Sacramento area 500m RDF FX 00Z 06/27 (Sun Afternoon) Clean air wrt transport over area (low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Moderate (5-10ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Minimal vertical displacement of air (descent near coast). 500m RDF FX 00Z 06/28 (Mon Afternoon) Clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Strong descent of air. focus on San Joaquin Valley500m RDF FX 00Z 06/29 (Tue Afternoon) Generally clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO); O3, BC_OC, and SO4 slightly higher in Kern County). Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Moderate descent of air; more descent in southern portion of valley. focus on Mexico500m RDF FX 00Z 06/30 (Wed Afternoon) Generally clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO); Note: SO4 very high to SW and E of northern Mexico; moderate O3 levels. Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Minimal vertical displacement of air.

  22. 500m Black and Organic C - Sunday afternoon

  23. 500m PM2.5 - Sunday afternoon

  24. 500m CO - Sunday afternoon

  25. 500m O3 - Sunday afternoon

  26. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Sunday afternoon

  27. 500m Vertical Displacement - Sunday afternoon

  28. 500m Black and Organic C - Monday afternoon

  29. 500m PM2.5 - Monday afternoon

  30. 500m CO - Monday afternoon

  31. 500m O3 - Monday afternoon

  32. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Monday afternoon

  33. 500m Vertical Displacement - Monday afternoon

  34. 500m Black and Organic C - Tuesday afternoon

  35. 500m PM2.5 - Tuesday afternoon

  36. 500m CO - Tuesday afternoon

  37. 500m O3 - Tuesday afternoon

  38. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Tuesday afternoon

  39. 500m Vertical Displacement - Tuesday afternoon

  40. 500m Black and Organic C - Wednesday afternoon

  41. 500m PM2.5 - Wednesday afternoon

  42. 500m CO - Wednesday afternoon

  43. 500m O3 - Wednesday afternoon

  44. 500m O3 Prod-Loss - Wednesday afternoon

  45. 500m Vertical Displacement - Wednesday afternoon

  46. Sulphate Large Scale Transport

  47. 500m SO4 - Sunday afternoon

  48. 500m SO4 - Monday afternoon

  49. 500m SO4 - Tuesday afternoon

  50. 500m SO4 - Wednesday afternoon

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