Tomorrow’s Climate Today’s Challenge Climate Change & Local Energy Solutions a brief introduction

1. Tomorrow’s Climate Today’s ChallengeClimate Change & Local Energy Solutions a brief introduction Ben Simpson – Greenpeace & Community Energy Plus ben@cep.org.uk – 01209 614973

2. Tomorrow’s Climate…Predictions for a warming world Dangerous climate change... It's important not to be alarmist but it is very important to be alarmed. (David Miliband, Defra, 2006)

3. Climate change: the greatest challenge to face man (Duke of Cornwall/Prince of Wales, BBC interview, October 2005) We live not, in reality, on the summit of a solid earth but at the bottom of an ocean of air…. (Thales of Miletus (c.625 - 545 BC))

4. We're putting 70 million tonnes of pollution into the atmosphere every day, trapping an enormous amount of extra heat from the sun inside the earth's atmosphere. It's threatening to push the planet past a tipping point beyond which climate change would be difficult to stop. (Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States (September 2006) Our new technologies, combined with our numbers, have made us collectively, a force of nature. (Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States, 'An Inconvenient Truth' (2006)) A blanket of gases traps the sun’s heat in… causing Global Warming Basically: More GHG’s in the atmosphere = warmer world & climate extremes

5. So what have we caused? There is more CO2 in the atmosphere now than there has been in the last 650,000 years… (382ppm CO2/430ppm CO2e rising at 2ppm+ p.a.) 11 out of the last 12 years have been the hottest years in recorded history… The clearest evidence that we are living beyond environmental means is the threat of dangerous climate change. The scale of this threat, to human life and to the natural resources and assets on which it depends, for everything from oxygen and clean water to healthy soils and flood defence, means that this simply must be our top priority (David Miliband, Secretary of State for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs) Why? In 2003 35,000 people died across Europe as the direct result of the heatwave that summer… By 2080 extreme summers like the 2003 heatwave will be common place…

6. A threat to our food and water supplies The sea level in SW UK is projected to rise by 0.8m by 2080… Globally about 100 million people live less than 1m above sea level… The vast majority of glaciers have been retreating and thinning over the past 30 years… Chinese Meteorological Administration predicts that China’s northwestern mountains will lose over a quarter of their current glacier coverage by 2050 These glaciers supply 15-20% of the water to over 20 million people in the Xinjiang and Qinghai Provinces alone… In India 500 million people rely on the Indus and Ganges, which are largely feed by glacial meltwater…

7. What do we know about future climate change? IPCC 4th Assessment Report (4AR) predicts: global average temperatures to rise by 1.8°C - 4°C(1.1°C - 6.4°C) this Century Doesn’t sound much… but what do the numbers mean for our planet?

8. 1°C World Kilimanjaro - Africa’s shining mountain? Glacial retreat in 6 years… The parched Amazon – Amazonian drought 2005

9. 2°C World Worsening drought brings water shortages Ocean Warming, Rise & Acidification Threatened mass extinction for 20% to 30% of the world's species Affecting up to 2 billion people facing by 2050 Reduced Arctic sea-ice: polar bears become extinct Triggers the end of the Coral reef eco-system (full die-off likely under 3°C world)…

10. Runaway Global Warming?Beyond 2°C… Threshold for biological carbon cycle feedback… i.e. plant life & soils which have previously been acting as major carbon sinks… Start releasing their vast stores of CO2 Triggered (probability 78-98%)if Global Emissions Peak exceeds 400-450ppm CO2/450-550ppm CO2e

11. 3°C World Worse cyclone threat… Katrina… Warmer oceans means… Stronger hurricanes/cyclones… with greater reach Europe and South America become vulnerable More frequent/permanent El Nino brings… Drought to Australia, Indonesia & Amazonia & Flooding & failed fisheries to SW of the Americas

12. 3°C Warming Full Amazon collapse From Rainforest… To Savannah & burn off To Desert

13. Beyond 3°C… Threshold for Siberian methane feedback… i.e. Methane released from permafrost as a result of irreversible thaw Triggered (probability 69-94%) if Global Emissions Peak exceeds 450-550ppm CO2/550-650ppm CO2e

14. 4°C World Desertification of N. Africa & Mediterranean Europe Methane release from Siberian Permafrost accelerates

15. Beyond 4°C… Threshold for oceanic methane release feedback… i.e. Methane released from the sub-oceanic Methane Hydrate stores due to temperature & pressure changes Triggered (probability 58-82%) under Business As Usual Global atmospheric concentrations = 650ppm CO2+ /650-750ppm CO2e

16. 5°C World Sub-oceanic Methane Hydrate releases • The remaining ice sheets are eventually eliminated from both poles. • Rainforests have burned up and disappeared. • Rising sea levels have inundated coastal cities and are beginning to penetrate far inland into continental interiors. • Humans are herded into shrinking zones of habitability by twin crises of drought and flood. • Inland areas see temperatures 10 or more degrees higher than now. • (Mark Lynas, Author Six Degrees, 2007)

17. Impacts on Cornwall? • Impacts…We don’t know enough, particularly concerning the social and economic implications… More research is urgently required… • What we do know • Warmer dryer summers & • Milder wetter winters Source SWCCIP ‘Warming to the Idea’ 2003

18. Serious implications for: • Agriculture & horticulture • Biodiversity • Coastal areas • Sea Fisheries • River Flooding & drainage • Built environment • Health • Heritage • Transport infrastructure Opportunities in: • Environmental/low carbon technology industries • Sustainable communities/lifestyles • Tourism

19. Today’s Challenge!what can be done…

20. How? 1. Adaptation 2. Mitigation Where do we start? Education, education, education… Education & capacity building must come first! We need a new environmental consciousness on a global basis. To do this, we need to educate people…(Mikhail Gorbachev) We need to develop the new green industrial revolution that develops the new technologies that can confront and overcome the challenge of climate change; and that above all can show us not that we can avoid changing our behaviour but we can change it in a way that is environmentally sustainable… (Tony Blair, 2004)

21. Key abatement strategies Economic measures required to address climate change: • Putting a realistic price on carbon • Supporting low carbon technologies • Removing barriers to uptake of sustainable energy Planning for energy descent will require main-streaming of: • Demand reduction & energy efficiency programmes • Structural change – Sustainable Resilience (new localism) • Low carbon technologies

22. Reducing your Carbon Footprint Sustainable Energy at home and in your community

23. Your Basic Carbon Footprint Measures your: • Household emissions • Workplace emissions • Transport emissions • Consumption emissions Today we’ll briefly deal with one of the primary ways of reducing the first 2 categories…

24. So what’s wrong with our current energy system? It’s massively inefficient… such that 68% of primary energy is wasted… & this leads to unnecessary CO2 emissions…

25. What are the experts saying about this? In the early years of the new millennium, the electricity system, the bloodstream of industrial society, is going to change almost beyond recognition. It will have to. (Walt Patterson - Royal Institute of International Affairs, UK) The current power infrastructure is as compatible with the future as horse trails were to automobiles (Kurt Yeager - President, Electric Power Research Institute)

26. So what’s the alternative? – Decentralised Energy! Localisation of energy generation… power to the people… from the people What does this look like: http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/blog/climate/decentralised-energy-w

27. So what does Sustainable Energy really mean? • Energy Conservation: Conserving energy by being aware of you energy use – frugality • Energy Efficiency: Consuming the energy that you do use in the most efficient manner • Renewable/Low-Carbon Energy Sources: Capturing and using natural, renewable energy sources… whilst minimising the GHG emissions associated with the use of fossil energies.

28. What do I mean by Energy Conservation? • Turning your thermostat down by 1ºC could cut your heating bills by up to 10 per cent and save you around £40 per year. • Is your water too hot? Your cylinder thermostat shouldn't need to be set higher than 60ºC/140ºF. • Close your curtains at dusk to stop heat escaping through the windows. • Always turn off the lights when you leave a room. • Don't leave appliances on standby and remember not to leave appliances on charge unnecessarily. • If you're not filling up the washing machine, tumble dryer or dishwasher, use the half-load or economy programme. • Only boil as much water as you need (but remember to cover the elements if you're using an electric kettle). • A dripping hot water tap wastes energy and in one week wastes enough hot water to fill half a bath, so fix leaking taps and make sure they're fully turned off! 

29. What do you mean by Energy Efficiency? Roof 25% 1. Minimizing Heat Loss • Fabric Heat Loss Doors & windows 15% Walls 35% Floor 10% Roof 90% • Ventilation Heat Loss • Poorly fitted Pipe work and Wiring • Gaps around Doors, Letterboxes and Keyholes • Gaps around Windows • Gaps between Floorboards • Unused Chimneys • Gaps around the Loft Hatch • Cracks in Building Structure Windows 33% Doors 100% Floor 50% Walls 66%

30. 2. Using the most Energy Efficient space and water heating equipment… The efficiency of your heating system depends on: Choosing the right fuel based on lifestyle/demand, availability, cost, and GHG emissions Using the most efficient (i.e. A rated) appliances Using the controls effectively, i.e. timers & zoning Making sure heat loss is kept to a minimum Choosing a your fuel

31. 3. Using Energy Efficient Lighting Standard bulbs can be replaced with Compact Florescent Lamps Spot bulbs can be replaced by either CFLs or LEDS Such bulbs generally cut your energy consumption between 4X and 20X Campaign to band incandescent bulbs see: http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendid=175871816 4. Using Energy Efficient appliances Most appliances by law have to be energy rated

32. Renewables for you home & community Micro-generation and it is a key part of the decentralised energy future… Technologies used include: Electricity generation Micro-wind (between 1KW – 20KW peak) Solar Photo-Voltaic Micro-hydro (very few locations suitable) CHP Heat generation Solar Thermal Heat pumps (ground source, air source & water source) CHP/Biomass

33. Micro-Wind Horizontal axis: Buildings integrated: Airdolphin (1KW peak) Freestanding: Proven (2.5KW>15KW) Vertical axis (VAWT) Quiet Revolution 5 (6KW)

34. Solar Photo-Voltaics Retro-fit PV panels – Wellbeing Centre Integrated PV slates/tiles - Carnyorth

35. Solar Thermal/Water Heating Flat plate panels: Retro-fit Integrated tiles Evacuated tubes panels Solar-hot water system diagram

36. Ground Source Heat pumps: Horizontal Axis Vertical axis Renewable Energy Tariffs: www.cornwall-switch.org 0800 10 88 333 Cornwall Energy Efficiency Advice Centre: 0800 512 012

37. Together we are the solution… Climate change will not be effectively managed until individuals and communities recognise that their behaviour can make a difference… (The Royal Society, Climate Change: what we know and what we need to know (2002))

38. Thankfully this is starting to happen… Transition Culture Model (Totnes – www.transitionculture.org) Transition Falmouth (www.transitionfalmouth.org.uk) Transition Penwith (www.transitionpenwith.com) Climate Friendly Village Model (Ashton Hayes -www.goingcarbonneutral.co.uk) St Endellion Climate Friendly Parish (www.stendellion.com) The time for action is now… The costs of stabilising the climate are significant but manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more costly… (Sir Nicholas Stern ‘The Stern Review’ 2006)

39. Community Energy Projects A recognised role for the community: Energy White Paper (May 2007) states: 259 Community level organisations have the potential to play an important role in communicating climate change and in helping their communities make real and lasting changes to their day-to-day lives. … Initial findings by the Centre for Sustainable Energy and Community Development Exchange imply that effective community initiatives are likely to be a necessary component of a coherent national approach to tackling climate change. Available support: Community Engagement Community Energy Plus – Community Team EST – Community Action for Energy Network: http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/cafe/ Energy4all - www.energy4all.co.uk Community Development Kabin – Cornwall Social Enterprise/Cooperative Development Agency (Paul Martin – 01872 262259)

40. Community Energy Models Energy4All: Community Ownership of Energy Generation • Community-owned green energy is the corner stone of European renewable expertise and has worked successfully in the UK since 1996 through the award-winning Baywind Co-op. • Energy4All owned by the co-operatives they assist; Baywind Energy Co-operative Ltd, Westmill Wind Farm Co-operative Ltd, Boyndie Wind Farm Co-operative Ltd and Fenland Green Power Co-operative Ltd.  • Energy4All offers a combination of industry experience, community involvement, and business acumen providing a package of sector, admin, and financial services to Co-ops in return for an annual fee. www.energy4all.co.uk

41. Community Energy Projects in Cornwall • Community Assisted Energy Efficiency Drives Boscastle Candle Mass CFL give away (planned) St Endellion Brownies Bulb Exchange • Renewables on Community Buildings CEP Community Team Projects: Centre of Pendeen, Carnyorth Education Centre, Wellbeing Centre: Type of installations: approx 5kW Solar PV Annual Generation: 7-8 MWh Annual CO2 saving: 3-3.5 tonnes Household’s equivalent: 2 http://www.csep.co.uk/page109g.html • Community Renewables Generation South Wheatley Environmental Trust: Type of installation: 15kW Wind Turbine Annual Generation: 35 MWh Annual CO2 saving:15 tonnes Household’s equivalent: 9 http://www.good-energy.co.uk/gyo_smart_case_swheatley

42. Future Community Energy Projects in Cornwall Transition Penwith Energy Group Are looking at: • Energy Trails in Penwith • Practical web-based ‘how to guides’ of renewable energy installations • Baseline energy use in Penwith • Investigate the concept of open space • Evening class in energy • Potential for community owned renewables generation (Nuon/Energy4All) St Endellion Climate Friendly Parish Are looking into developing a community energy action plan that involves • Assessing baseline energy consumption • Providing ‘energy trackers’ to residents to increase energy awareness • Community supported energy efficiency drives (bulbs & insulation) • A community sustainable energy offset scheme - community buildings • Supporting local businesses to audit and reduce their energy consumption (in conjunction with CoaST & Envision) CEP/CSEP& Kabin are looking into support for community led-ESCOs: Including reusing commerical scale wind turbines for small communities and an ESCO for CPR under the Aspire Project.

43. Human history is a race between education and catastrophe… (H G Wells) Unless we change direction, we are likely to end up where we are going… (Chinese proverb) Thank you for listening ben@cep.org.uk – 01209 614973