The economics of consumption

1. The economics of consumption

2. Importance of consumption in macro 1. Consumption is two-thirds of GDP – understanding its determinants is major part of the ball game. 2. Consumption is the entire point of the economy: 3. Consumption plays two roles in microeconomics: a. Keynesian/short run: It is a major part of AD in the short run in IS curve:Y = C(Yd) + I + G + NX b. Classical/long run: What is not consumed is saved and influences national investment and economic growth: S = I(r)

3. Note on the data • Because of the government shutdown, the latest data are not available. • Like the Fed and other economic analysts, I am required to use old or estimated data.

6. From: President Eli To: Yale StudentsRe: Generous Gift My dear students, I am delighted to report a generous gift of $1000 per Yale student, available immediately. You can come by the office and pick up your check any time. Professor Nordhaus has requested that you make a list of how you would spend the funds. Would you please write this down in your notebooks in class today. You will find it instructive as you discuss consumption in class this week. With best wishes, President Eli

7. Growth in C and GDP (quarterly) • Chicken or egg: • ΔC causes recession? • Recession causes ΔC?

8. Alternative Theories of Consumption There are four major approaches in macroeconomics: *1. Keynes original approach of the consumption function *2. Fisher's approach: sometimes called the neoclassical model *3. Life-cycle or permanent income approaches (Modigliani, Friedman) 4.Rational expectations (Euler equation) approaches *5. Behavioral issues *To be covered in course. #4 is not covered.

9. Alternative Theories of Consumption • The basic Keynesian insight is that consumption depends fundamentally on personal income (“consumption function”) • This enters into the Keynesian models as C = α + βYd • We need to understand the economic reason behind this.

10. Intertemporal Consumption Choice: Fisher’s model Basic idea: People have expectations of lifetime income; they determine their consumption stream optimally; this leads consumers to “smooth” consumption over their lifetime. Assumptions of two period model: Periods 1 and 2 Income Y1 and Y2 Discount rate d Maximize utility: Budget constraint: We will do graphical case now and calculus later.

11. Budget constraint: C1+C2/(1+r)=Y1 [no income in retirement] C2 Indifference curve between current and future consumption E* S1* C1 Y1

12. C2 Key result: consumption independent of timing of income!!! Called “consumption smoothing” E* S1* C1 Y1

13. Impact of higher interest rates on saving Important question for economics A common theme: - The country need to reduce taxes to increase savings - Examples: lower marginal tax rates, lower capital gains taxes, move to consumption taxes, - Mechanism: ra = rb (1-τ) What is the economic theory of this? What is econometric evidence on this?

14. C2 CASE I: Higher interest rate leads to lower saving because income effect outweighs substitution effect. [Pension example] E** E* C1 Y1

15. C2 CASE II: Opposite case: higher r increases savings as substitution effect dominates E** E* C1

16. Dependent Variable: LOG(real consumption expenditures) Method: Least Squares Sample (adjusted): 1960Q1 2011Q2 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t - Statistic Prob. C onsta nt - 0.456 0.016 - 27.0 0.0000 L n (Yd) 0.812 0.011 71.1 0.0000 LOG( Real wealth ) 0.193 0.010 18.9 0.0000 Real 10 year T rate 0.000102 0.000 0 .22 0.8204 R - squared 0.999 Mean dependent var 8.40 Adjusted R - squared 0.999 S.D. dependent var 0.49 S.E. of regression 0.012 Akaike info criterion - 5.93 If we estimate the impact of changes in interest rates on consumption, we get paradoxical case (δs/δr < 0): The impact is essentially zero (and not robust to changes in specifications, samples, etc.)

17. Econometric savings schedule: S(r)

18. Summary to here Income over life cycle is the major determinant of consumption and saving. In idealized case, have consumption smoothing over lifetime. Interesting result on impact of interest rates and taxes on saving/consumption. Now move from two-period (Fisher model) to multi-period (life cycle model).

19. Basic Assumptions of Life Cycle Model Basic idea: People have expectations of lifetime income; they determine their consumption stream optimally; this leads consumers to “smooth” consumption over their lifetime. Assumptions: “Life cycle” for planning from age 1 to D. Earn Y per year for ages 1 to R. Retire from R to D. Maximize utility function: Budget constraint: Discount rate on utility (δ) = real interest rate (r) = 0 (for simplicity)

20. C, Y, S Income, Y Consumption, C Saving, S age | | 0 R D

21. Techniques for Finding Solution 1. Two periods: Maximizing this leads to U’(C1)=U’(C2). This implies that C1 = C2 , which is consumption smoothing. The Cs are independent of the Ys. 2. Lagrangean maximization (advanced math econ): Maximizing implies that U’(C1) = U’(C2)= λ. This implies that which again is consumption smoothing independent of Y.

22. U Since U’(C1)=U’(C2)=… = λ, C is constant over time. Note: this assumes diminishing marginal utility or U”(C)<0. Make sure you know what this means. C1

23. Now develop life-cycle model in detail Life-cycle model: People plan their consumption over the future Assumptions: “Life cycle” for planning from age 1 to D. Earn constant Y per year for ages 1 to R. Retire from R to D. Maximize discounted utility with budget constraint: For simplicity, assume r = δ = 0. Leads to

24. Initial Solution C, Y, S Diagram of Life Cycle Model Showing Consumption Smoothing Income, Y Consumption, C Saving, S age | | 0 R D

25. Anticipated change in timing of income C, Y, S Income “splash” (Y’) with no W increase Income, Y Anticipated income change of ΔY. Because it is anticipated, no change in lifetime income, so no change in (smoothed) consumption. MPC = 0; MPS = 1. Consumption, C’=C Saving, S’ age | | R D 0

26. What about anticipated taxes? C, Y, S Income “splash” from tax cut Income, Y No C change! Saving, S’ age | | R D 0

27. Unanticipated change in permanent income C, Y, S Y’ =unanticipated increase; W increases. • Unanticipated windfall of ΔY in period z. • Leads to smoothing the windfall over remaining lifetime. • one time splash: MPC = ΔY/(D-z). For life expectancy of 40 years, would be MPC = .025. • Permanent income increase: MPC = ΔY(R-z)/(D-z) = .6 to .8 Y C’ C age | | R D 0

28. Example of the Life Cycle Model at Work: • How would the consumption and saving of people with volatile or stable income streams look? • See figure for Internet Entrepreneur and Yale Professor.

29. Major result of LCM: consumption smoothing eLove.com Professor C of both! D age R

30. Example of consumption smoothing: the 2008 tax rebate Estimated MPC= 0.25 (+0.04)

31. Why not have a sweet car?

32. How about a sweet car? • What is your favorite car? • What do you have? • Why not smooth consumption to get your favorite car? Liquidity constraints • Case of Yale students where income growing rapidly. • Here consumption is limited by borrowing constraint. • In class: A picture of the model with liquidity constraints. • Is this reason for MPC higher than life cycle prediction? (Partially, but cannot explain response of non-constrained consumers)

33. Behavioral economics Basic idea: That people are not optimizers: - Draw upon behavioral psychology: anchoring, loss aversion, hyperbolic discounting, and similar phenomena Real-world examples for all of us: - Procrastination (put off studying until 3 am). - Addictive substances (shop until you drop) Why is it “behavioral”? Because lead to inconsistent decisions that are regretted later - cheating, hangovers, unwanted pregnancies, jail Examples from macroeconomics: - MPC too high; low savings for retirement; subprime mortgages; sticky housing prices; too high discount rate in energy use

34. Behavioral macroeconomics: Problem #1 Here is an interesting behavioral example: You are a life-cycle consumer, but you can’t plan every microsecond because you have so much to do (classes, sports, social life, social media, talking to parents, etc.) So you need a rule of thumb to guide you in your monthly spending decisions. You have random inflows of disposable income (because of unpredictable income, taxes, gifts, bills to pay, etc.). You decide to use a rule of thumb to guide your monthly behavior and look at the end of the year to make sure you are on track for your “life-cycle plan.” Rule 1. Spend your expected monthly income each month. Rule 2. Spend your actual monthly income each month. Question: What is the short-run MPC for each rule?

35. Next week’s problem set #2 • Make sure you write down how you decided you would spend your $1000 windfall. • Explain how this decision fits into the economics of consumption that we discussed in class and in the textbook.

36. Taxes, interest rates, and saving: Problem #3 “Raise the tax on the returns for saving, and people will save less. We can argue the magnitude, but to argue that saving does not respond at all is simply to argue that incentives and disincentives are irrelevant to behavior.” “Of Course Higher Taxes Slow Growth,” J.D. Foster and Curtis Dubay What do you think of this argument?

38. What is the Effect of Stock Market Booms and Busts on Consumption?

39. And the housing price collapse…

40. Nobel prize 2013 Eugene Fama Lars Peter Hansen Robert Shiller

41. The price is about asset price movements Fama (building on Samuelson): Efficient markets hypothesis (EMH): All information is contained in market prices, so prices cannot be systematically predicted (or follow a random walk). Shiller: (a) Market prices are too volatile to conform to the EMH, and (b) there are predictable elements in the long-run movements of asset prices. A prize for two contradictory views!!! For the full story, seehttp://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2013/advanced-economicsciences2013.pdf

42. The Wealth Effect on Consumption Wealth effects: • Examples: Suppose you get your $1000 surprise windfall. Or the housing market collapsed as after 2006? What would be the effect on C? Life cycle model predicts that initial wealth (or surprise inheritances) would be spread over life cycle. • Intuition: an inheritance is just like an income splash. So the augmented life cycle model is Ct = β0 + β1Ypt + β2 Wt where Ypt is permanent or expected labor income and Wt is wealth.

43. Consider a person in the middle of the life cycle C, Y, S Initial wealth (from saving) Y C age | | D Age = z R 0

44. Now a wealth shock C, Y, S Wealth shock (falling house prices) Y C C’ age | | D Age = z R 0

45. The stock market, the housing market, and consumption • Economists think that the bursting of housing bubble was a major source of current recession (US, Spain, ….) • Reasons? Decline in consumption (today) and investment (later) • Rationale: the “wealth effect” on consumption • Analysis in the life-cycle model: • In augmented life-cycle model Ct = β0 + β1Ypt + β2Wtstandard estimates are that β2 = .03 - .06 (example in a minute) • Effect in the “Roaring 90s” and the housing crash today. • This is often called “deleveraging” but a better description is a “wealth effect” (leverage is a balance sheet phenomenon).

46. Regression Dependent Variable: Real consumption expenditures Method: Least Squares with AR correction Sample: 1960.1 2011.2 VariableCoefficientStd. ErrorP Real Disposable income 0.73 0.025 .0000 Real wealth 0.035 0.0041 .0000 R-squared 0.9997

47. Wealth and Consumption through Two Bubbles

48. Loss of wealth and savings rate increase

49. Key ideas on consumption and saving • Consumption derived from consumer maximization • Pure model leads to consumption smoothing • All kinds of important predictions • But pure model has “anomolies” and shows too large a short-run MPC relative to theory • Reasons are probably liquidity constraints and behavioral frictions. • Note the impact of interest rates and taxes on savings. • Remember the wealth effect