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PRESENTATION

PROGRESS ASSESSMENT OF PMS 1967-1987 THE EARLY BIRTH YEARS 1987-2007 PREDICTION VS REALITY 2007-2027 THE VISION SUCCESS IS UP TO YOU Ronald Hudson and Ralph Haas. PRESENTATION. Motivation behind the birth of PMS and key components Project and network levels of PMS

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PRESENTATION

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  1. PROGRESS ASSESSMENT OF PMS1967-1987 THE EARLY BIRTH YEARS1987-2007 PREDICTION VS REALITY2007-2027 THE VISIONSUCCESS IS UP TO YOURonald Hudson and Ralph Haas

  2. PRESENTATION • Motivation behind the birth of PMS and key components • Project and network levels of PMS • Key things learned from first 20 years of PMS • Looking ahead in 1987 • PMS development, progress, and issues 1987-2010 • PMS now basis for growing AMS • Closing thoughts I - 2

  3. Subgrade Strength 2 KIPS 10 KIPS Pavement Thickness 18 KIPS Load CBR DESIGN CHART

  4. BIRTH OF AND MOTIVATION FOR PMS • First concepts 1960’s • Too many early failures, US Interstate • Inadequate recognition of maintenance on performance and life cycle analysis • US space program and use of systems methods • Innovative engineers who saw need to integrate planning, design, construction, maintenance and rehabilitation I - 4

  5. Pavement Management Is a coordinated systematic process for carrying out all activities related to providing pavements

  6. Components of PMS Broader Asset Management Concerns PMS NETWORK LEVEL PROJECT LEVEL Programming Design DATA Construction Planning BASE Maintenance Budget Rehabilitation Engineering Analysis Research - Special Studies

  7. Data Collection Data Process Storage PMS Software Data Analysis Performance Prediction Budget Prediction Engineering Plan Action Plan

  8. Major Components of a PMS Inputs Models Distress Behavior Performance Traffic Friction Costs Decision Criteria Ordered Set of Implementation Choices

  9. INPUTS • Traffic • Materials • Thickness Costs Models Behavior Distress Performance Safety Condition Surveys Roughness PSI Deflection Traffic Counts & Weights Update Models • Test Pits • Lab Tests • RECORD • Construction • Maintenance • Count • Weigh • Classification LONG-TERM DATABASE & ANALYSIS • Rainfall • Temperature

  10. Types of Evaluation Information Structural Costs Models Inputs Behavior Distress Performance Safety Friction Condition Maintenance Measures Cost Cores, Construction Records Surveys Records Deflection Roughness etc. Measurements Serviceability History Various monitoring methods

  11. INPUTS MEASURE OUTPUTS Estimate Structural Strength Time/History Σ of Distress BEHAVIOR Stress Strain DEFLECTION Prediction Models Load (Predicted and/or Measured) Calculated Condition Index Predicted Roughness Predicted Maintenance DISTRESS Cracking Deformation Disintegration Σ Loads PERFORMANCE (Predicted/Measured Annual Roughness Analysis/Prediction Historical Trends (Service Level) Optimization and Decisions Σ Load History

  12. SUMMARY: EARLY WORKSHOPS, CONFERENCES, BOOKS • Workshops in Austin, Phoenix and Charlotte (1970’s) • “A Management System for Highway Pavements” (ARRB 1970) • First text books (1977 and 1978) • First ICMPA Conferences (1985 and 1987) Proceedings ARRB Canberra 1970 1985 1987 I - 12

  13. Major Concern – 1987-2007 High-Quality Data Collection Processes

  14. DRIVING FORCES FOR EARLY NETWORK LEVEL PMS (circa 1970’s) • Early failure of 1,000’s km of pavements • Primary interest of Chief Engineers • AASHTO, FHWA, Can. Austin & other initiatives • Workshops and Conferences Where? The Network

  15. Components of PMS Broader Asset Management Concerns PMS NETWORK LEVEL PROJECT LEVEL Programming Design DATA Construction Planning BASE Maintenance Budget Rehabilitation Engineering Analysis Research - Special Studies

  16. PMS NETWORK LEVEL Programming Planning Budgeting DATA BASE Project Level Engineering Analysis Size of boxes shows relative use as of 2011.

  17. SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS As seen 1970-1987 Skills needed Pavement, Software Development, Optimization, Database Handler ? In-house development ? Use of Outside Professionals ? Specialized Software Providers ? I - 17

  18. Key Things Learned from 20 Years (1967-1987) of P.M. From P.M. Process Itself • The component activities for P.M. can be described on a generic basis. • Existing and new technology can be organized within PMS framework. • PMS framework allows complete flexibility for different models, methods and procedures. • P.M. operates at two basic levels: network and project. • Sound technology is critical to PMS process and its effective use. II - 18

  19. Key Things Learned from 20 Years (1967-1987) of P.M. (continued) From Using the P.M. Process • Development and implementation of a PMS must be staged. • Staging promotes understanding and acceptance by various users. • Options always exist; they should be evaluated on a life-cycle basis. • We need models for predicting deterioration effect of rehabilitation and maintenance. • P.M. can make efficient use of available funds but it will not “save” a network if funding is inadequate. • Good, effective PMS data. II - 19

  20. BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR AN EFFECTIVE AND COMPREHENSIVE PMS (Circa ICMPA 1987 “Future Prospects for Pavement Management”) • Coordinated direction of resources and labour • Serving different levels of users in the organization • Effective decision making for network level programs and individual projects based on good data • Making good use of existing and new technologies • Having a structure / framework for activities and decisions II - 20

  21. PMS Structure for ACTIVITIES AND DECISIONS (Circa ICMPA 1987 “Future Prospects for Pavement Management” Block Network Level Project Level • Sectioning, data acquisition (roughness, distress, etc.) • Data processing • Structural, materials, traffic, climate, costs, etc. • Data analysis Data • Min. serviceability, friction, etc.; max. user and maint. costs; max. program costs • Selection criteria • Max. as-built roughness, max. project costs, traffic disruption, etc. • Selection criteria Criteria • Now and future needs, alternatives, econ. eval., priority analysis, etc. • Evaluation of alternative budget scenarios • Within-project alternatives, performance and distress predictions, etc. • Life-cycle economic analysis Analyses II - 21

  22. PMS Structure for ACTIVITIES AND DECISIONS (Circa ICMPA 1987 “Future Prospects for Pavement Management” Cont/d. Block Network Level Project Level • Final priority program of capital projects (including rehab.) • Final maintenance program • Best within-project alternative • Maintenance treatments Selection • Schedule, contracts, program monitoring • Budget and financial planning updates • Construction activities and control, as-built records • Maintenance activities and management Implemen-tation Questions: How relevant is this structure to the 2010 + era? What were the major issues in 1987; still relevant? II - 22

  23. LOOKING AHEAD IN 1987: MAJOR ISSUES • Effects of different organizational structures; recognizing various levels of users • Local area PMS needs vs. State and Federal systems • Establishing PMS benefits in quantitative terms • Integrating PMS with transport system management • Relationships between PMS and other infrastructure management systems II - 23

  24. II - 24

  25. LOOKING AHEAD IN 1987: OPPORTUNITIES • Generic framework for (network and project) PMS • Improved public and senior administrative awareness of PMS value • Better incentive programs: contractors, researchers, etc. • Identification of high payoff areas for technology advancements • Programs for improved technical capabilities: contractors, practitioners, etc. • Better consistency between sophisticated analysis and basic materials, traffic, environmental and other inputs • Substantial funded program (similar to AASHTO Design Guide) to develop next major level of PMS II - 25

  26. II - 26

  27. SUMMARY OF OPPORTUNITIES OPPORTUNITY AREA CHALLENGES PROSPECTS A. Pavement Data Needs and Cost-Effectiveness Collection Technologies Quality Assurance Storage and Integration Numerous Challenges and Prospects for Major Advances Range From Short to Long Term II - 27

  28. SUMMARY OF OPPORTUNITIES OPPORTUNITY AREA CHALLENGES PROSPECTS B. Pavement Management Structural Design and LCCA Performance Modelling Treatment Selection Quantifying Benefits Decision Support Numerous Challenges and Prospects for Major Advances Range From Short to Long Term II - 28

  29. SUMMARY OF OPPORTUNITIES OPPORTUNITY AREA CHALLENGES PROSPECTS C. Institutional Improvements Organizational Structure Location (PMS and AMS) Technology Updates Skills and Training P 3’s Numerous Challenges and Prospects for Major Advances Range From Short to Long Term II - 29

  30. 1975-1995 States with Good PMS Software • ARIZONA • KANSAS • MINNESOTA • ONTARIO, CANADA • WASHINGTON • PARANA, BRAZIL • TOCANTINS, BRAZIL Weak in-house systems in 10-15 states. Little or nothing in other states.

  31. Where Were We in 2000? North America has invested US $2.3 trillion in highways South American has invested US $1.6 trillion +/- in Highways The World has invested US $10 trillion +

  32. What Are The Issues, 2000-Now? • Pavement Preservation • “Throughout the world, there has been a shift from constructing new highways to preserving, maintaining, and maximizing the operation of what we have” [Madeleine Bloom, FHWA] • “The right treatment on the right pavement at the right time” [Foundation for Pavement Preservation] • More reasons that good “design” is not enough

  33. This Software Concept is Inadequate in 2010 Inputs Models Distress Behavior Performance Traffic Friction Costs Decision Criteria Ordered Set of Implementation Choices

  34. Actual Software Requirements - 2010 To Reports To Reports To Reports To Reports To Reports Raw Condition Roadway Inventory Data Management Sections Structure Traffic Data Conversion Work Records* Distress Indexes AADT ESAL % Trucks Aggregation to Distress Sections Pavement Layers* Road Structure Stats. Current PM Sections Define Sections for Data Aggregation Condition Measures Aggregation of Data onto Management Sections Aggregated Performance Information Aggregated Network Information Current Reporting To Other # Systems Network Analysis Master Work Program Performance * Historical Reports Performance * Models # Including PP plans and MMS Scenario * Work Pgm. * Including information for pavement preservation treatments & maintenance work Projected * Condition

  35. Optimization Analysis 2010 Condition Data Condition Indexes Other Pavement Data Output Projected Conditions & Budgets Integer Solver Multi-Constraint Analysis Predicted Condition Decision Trees Work Plan Multi-Year Analysis Models Strategy Generation Engine Section Strategies

  36. Which Do You Use? Computer Operating System Develop in-house or use Microsoft Database In-house? or ORACLE/PeopleSoft Computer Map In-house? or Google Earth Internet In-house? or Commercial

  37. Good Commercial PMS Software is Available – 2000 to date About 20 US States now use commercial 50-60% of Agencies still use in-house PMS. In-house delays development – inadequate, incomplete, slow Wastes $2-10 million per year of delay

  38. DOT Asset Management 10% 90% of Assets and Budgets Other Buildings, Safety, etc. PMS Pavements BMS Bridges MMS Maintenance

  39. Data Collection Data Process Storage PMS Software Data Analysis Performance Prediction Budget Prediction Engineering Plan Action Plan

  40. Executive Decisions Pavement Manager Bridge Manager Safety Manager Asset Management Modular Framework External Data and Models Common Data Model Core AA Functions Asset Inventory Base Linear Reference Security User Organization Terminology Data Management Reporting Graphing Communications System Utilities Maintenance Manager External Systems (e.g., SAP. Advantage, PeopleSoft, etc) (Fleet, Equipment, Materials, Labor) Network Manager Mobile Apps GIS • Zero-Footprint, Web-based System • All Transportation Assets • Agency-specific models • Integrated Asset & Maintenance Management • Input to Administrators • Integrated GIS Mapping Capabilities • Secure and scalable to thousands of users • Easy-to-use with Sophisticated Analysis • Powerful reporting tools • User Friendly

  41. Functional Areas • Processes are identified by Functional Area • Resource Management (RM) • Labor Management • Equipment Management • Materials Management • Linear Referencing Processes (LR) • LRS Management • Asset Inventory Processes (AI) • Asset Acquisition • Asset Condition Assessment • Linear Construction History • Linear Attribute Data Management • Planning Processes (PL) • Model Management • Analysis and Optimization • Planning • Operations Management (OP) • Projects / Contracts / Repair Orders • Work Order Creation and Scheduling • Resource Usage and Accomplishment Recording • Organizational Structure (OS) • System • Security • Reporting LR Linear Referencing Processes RM Resource Management AI Asset Inventory Processes AgileAssets Core PL Planning Processes OS Org. Structure OP Operations Management System Security Reporting

  42. Tradeoff Objectives - 2010 Tradeoff = Utility Combinations of individual Performance Measures Road Sub-Network Utility Safety Congestion Comfort Aesthetics Driver Information Roll Over Prevention Skidding and Hydroplaning No of lanes Bridge Structural Soundness Sign Damage Sign Visibility Low Shoulder Guardrail Condition Pvt Skid Resistance Pvt Roughness Pvt Rutting Grass Height Litter Pvt Macro-texture Pvt Micro-texture Pvt Cracking

  43. The Start of Asset Management in 5-7 States – 2008+ III - 44

  44. Where Are We in 2011? • 20± agencies use complete detailed PMS • Many others worldwide still need to upgrade their PMS • Data collection is adequate will continue to improve

  45. Where Are We in 2011? (cont.) • Maintenance and preservation still need models and add to PMS • PMS is acting as an anchor to develop full asset management 5+ state • Large Funding like SHRP and MEPDG is needed for large rapid improvement.

  46. Initially, Management Systems Resisted by Engineers 1967 – Engineering Review Team vetoed PMS Concept 1980’s – Bridge designers would not use BMS concepts. “Design covers all we need” Use safety factor of 2.0+ 2000-2010 – (Still resist) US has spent $15 million developing a mechanistic “design system” that requires 300 variables.

  47. Initially, Management Systems Resisted by Engineers (cont.) • All 3 groups ignore future variability in predicted traffic, environment, material properties. • There has been little or no research on benefits of maintenance and preservation. • More administrators, budget makers, planners, maintenance staff now support and demand PMS/BMS/MMS.

  48. Historical and Current Limitations • Lack of Standard Nomenclature • Prioritize not True Optimization • Many use worst first funding • User Costs – Not used • Life-Cycle Cost – Partial use

  49. Frontier – Leading Edge • True optimization • 10-15-20 year planning Horizon Tools • Corridor Analysis PMS, BMS, SMS, etc. • Active Asset Management – demonstrate to Admin. and Top Staff – true interaction • Benefits, not loss of Authority for them • Examples: North Carolina, Idaho, Virginia

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