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Network SoC 산업 - “미래의 정보사회: 산업, 기술과 인력” -

Network SoC 산업 - “미래의 정보사회: 산업, 기술과 인력” -. 2003.10.18 임 준서 Paion . Agenda. I. Demands 시장에 대한 이해의 필요성 Eco-System 의 중요성 – 연못 II. Network SoC 의 기술적 이슈, 경쟁 및 마켓 상황 NP 및 SF 요소기술 소개 경쟁관계 – 별자리도 Map – 역학관계의 파악, 전략적인 방향 결정. Agenda. III. 변화와 대안 Telco Crash 생태계( Eco-System) 의 변화

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Network SoC 산업 - “미래의 정보사회: 산업, 기술과 인력” -

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  1. NetworkSoC 산업- “미래의 정보사회: 산업, 기술과 인력” - 2003.10.18 임 준서 Paion

  2. Agenda I. Demands • 시장에 대한 이해의 필요성 • Eco-System 의 중요성 – 연못 II. Network SoC 의 기술적 이슈, 경쟁 및 마켓 상황 • NP 및 SF 요소기술 소개 • 경쟁관계 – 별자리도 • Map – 역학관계의 파악, 전략적인 방향 결정

  3. Agenda III. 변화와 대안 • Telco Crash • 생태계(Eco-System) 의 변화 • 변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리 기업들 ; 예) PMC-Sierra, Vitesse, AMCC • 자금시장 변화 • Network 기술 시장 대안 • Network SOC 의 Re-positioning

  4. Agenda IV. SoC 산업의 성공적인미래 • Global Trend • 중국 시장의 부상 • Eco-System 측면에서 시스템 산업, Foundry • 제품화 Mind의 기술 개발 - Product Planning • Trend 읽기 – 문화 • 기술 마케팅 – TCP, 시장과 성당 • 교육적인 측면에서

  5. Demand 시장에 대한 이해의 필요 통신 사업자의 서비스 변화에 따른 장비 및 부품 수요 Eco-System 의 중요성

  6. Core Router : Hype ? Cisco GSR12416 Juniper M160 Charlotte Aranea-1 Lucent Nx64000 Avici TSR Pluris Teraplex • 인터넷 트래픽의 증가, 3달에2배씩 [ 미국 상무성] • WorldCom • 2001년까지, 대형 Terabit 라우터, 대용량 고속 스위치 패브릭, 네트워크 프로세서 개발에 막대한 투자 $215M 2002 가을 Aggregated Switching Bandwidth 320~640G 160Gbps+ 320G~1.9T 320G~6.4T 400G ~ 36T 320G~19.2T

  7. Investment : Bubble ? 이더넷 신기술 워크샵 2001-5-24

  8. Big Picture Telco Market Terabit Core Router MPLS Router Metro Core Last Mile Access Metro Edge Enterprise Metro Ethernet (L3 switch) PDSN 802.11 AP EPON (OLT) PSTN Storage Networking – SAN Fabric, TOE LAN SW BSC Security – VPN, IDS, Firewall CDN/ Server Load balancing Ethernet EPON (ONU) IP-DSLAM Enterprise Switch VDSL Base stations VDSL

  9. KT 의 메트로 및 가입자 스위치 2.5 G 2.5 G Cisco GSR12000 백본 라우터 G/E 메트로 코어 대용량 스위치 • >120Gbps, 48G 포트 • Extreme Black Diamond 8808 • >36Gbps, 20G+128F 포트 • Riverstone 38000 메트로 코어 중용량 스위치 G/E • >16Gbps, 4G+70F 포트 • Cisco Catalyst 6506, • Riverstone 8600, • Extreme Alpine 3808 1G 1G Ntopia 스위치 VOD server GES 1G 1G 엑세스 스위치 엔터프라이즈 스위치 • >8Gbps, 2G+32F 포트 • 로커스, 미리넷 • 다산, 코어세스, 텔리언 DSLAM FE FE [KT 메트로 이더넷 망 구성도]

  10. Broadband Access • Carrier overcapacity than demand, i.e., carriers are in no condition to purchase any equipment. • 전반적으로 침체되었던 네트워크 장비 산업은 2002 년 후반기 VDSL, Metro Ethernet 으로 회복되면서, 2002년도 평균 42% 성장함. • KT 등 통신 사업자 주도의 VDSL (Ntopia-V) 및 Metro Ethernet (Ntopia-E) 사업 그리고, Netspot 사업은 Broadband 분야에서 아시아 및 한국의 성공적인 시장을 창출하였음. • 주요 칩셋 벤더의 주된 타깃 시장이 아시아로 이동함. • 2003년의화두는 여전히 VDSL 고도화였고, 향후중국이최대시장으로부상할것임 • 국내 중대형 스위치 시스템은 전량 해외 수입 상황임.

  11. EPON – 100Mbps+ Broadband 서비스 , 시스템, 부품 분야에서 한국이 주도할 수 있는 단계임 20km MTU/MDU EPON-OLT ONU Core VDSL, Ethernet, FTTH Splitter 16:1~32:1 Metro Ethernet ONT Home Network • Optical First Mile • Minimum fiber/space in CO • No power supply in field • Downstream broadcast (video) • 100Mbps ~1Gbps Broadband service, cf. VDSL 13~25Mbps, 50Mbps DSLAM

  12. 네트워크 SoC- 통신 서비스 인프라의 핵심 부품 • Backbone & Metro – Telco Market • Core/Terabit Router - Network Processor, Switch Fabric • Metro Ethernet Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric • Last Mile Access Market • EPON (FTTH) OLT/ONU, VDSL - Ethernet Switch Processor • Home Networking • NAT, Home Gateway, Wireless Switch - Low end Network Processor • Enterprise Market • Enterprise Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric • Security VPN, L7 Content switch - Network Processor

  13. 네트워크 SOC 기술의 State-of-the-art Network Processor Co-Processor (Classifier, Lookup, Security, Storage) Switch Fabric Ethernet Switch Processor

  14. Network Processor Value Positioning • Network Processor ? • A programmable device optimized for packet processing • Header parsing, pattern matching, bit-field manipulation, table look-ups, packet modification, traffic management • Must be done at wire speed, Handle Layer 3-7 tasks • Reduced design cycle for NEV • Adaptability to changing standards and protocols being developed– IPv6, SIP, IPSec, MPLS, DiffServ … • Faster implementation of Incremental features • Performance “headroom” for future upgrades : 50% in usual • Total Cost Of Ownership

  15. Forwarding and QoS functions Ingress Egress Scheduler DRR, WFQ Queue scheduling Per Interface WRED VOQ Switch Fabric Input Ports Classification Output Ports IP Lookup Rate Limiting Policing/Marking DSCP written L2/L3/L4 filter Drop • Usage based Billing Service • Wire-Speed Packet Classification for per-flow rate Limiting • DSCP (Differentiated Service Code Point) written at ingress • Classified and potentially discarded by WRED (Congestion avoidance) • Assigned to the appropriate outgoing queue • Output Scheduling for transmission (priority queuing)

  16. Network Processing Platform Control Plane (Protocol Processing & Management ) CPU Data Plane Processing PCI, HT, RapidIO, PCI-Ex Network Processor Switch Fabric High-Speed Interface MAC/PHY Gigabit Ethernet/ IEEE802.3ah/ IEEE802.11/ VDSL Packet Classifier Packet Processor (Lookup & Forwarding) Traffic Manager (QoS, Scheduling) Security Engine NPF LA-1 CSIX, SPI3, SPI4.2, NPF SI Search Engine - CAM Lookup Memory

  17. Function Map • Routing (BGP, OSPF) • MPLS Routing • Management (SNMP, RMON, MIB) • Wire Speed Layer 4~7 Content Inspection • Load Balancing • Per-Flow Classification CPU Network Processor Switch Fabric High-Speed Interface Gigabit Ethernet Packet Classifier Packet Processor (Lookup & Forwarding) Traffic Manager (QoS, Scheduling) EPON IEEE802.3ah Security Engine Wireless IEEE802.11 VDSL • High speed switching • Non Blocking - VOQ • Reliability/Redundancy • Bandwidth Scalability : 80G,320G,640G MAC/Framer, PHY • IP Lookup • IPv6 Lookup • Layer3+ Forwarding • NAT • MPLS • Field Manipulation • VPN - IPsec • SSL acceleration • TCP termination • Security Filtering • Security Rule Search Engine - CAM Lookup Memory • Congestion Avoidance • Priority Scheduling • Bandwidth Policing • Service Level Agreement • Billing, Rate Limiting

  18. Network Processor Issues • Processing Bandwidth • 1G (1.488Mpps)  OC-48 (7Mpps)  OC-192 (32Mpps)  40G (120+ Mpps) • Deep packet classification, 1M LUT • Multi-Processors : 100%+ compute headroom • More powerful engines – VLIW, SMP, Dynamic multithreading • Extensive use of hard-wired co-processor, classification, etc • Memory Bandwidth • Layer 3 10G requires 5GBps + sustained, 6~10 GBps peak • 4 * Rambus = 6.4 GBps peak • 256 bit DDR-266 = 8.5 GBps peak • 300MHz DDR = 9.4GBps peak • Layer 7 10G • Need 20GBps sustained memory BW just for packet queuing • Combination of embedded DRAM (bandwidth) and external memory(capacity) • Line/Fabric Interface • Need higher bandwidth & low pin counts • CSIX-L1 scales poorly to 10G - Too many pins • SPI4.2 standard for 10G line side

  19. [참고] Processing Engine – Old Data

  20. [참고] Bandwidth – Old Data

  21. [참고] Interface • Utopia (ATM Interface) • Level 1 : 8bit, 25MHz  OC-3(155Mbps) • Level 2 : 16bit, 50MHz  OC-12(640Mbps) • Level 3 : 32bit, 104MHz  OC-48(3.2Gbps)  OIF SPI-3 • SPI-4.1 : 64bit, 200MHz  OC-192(10Gbps) • SPI-4.2 : 16bit, 622MHz  OC-192(10Gbps), LVDS 311MHz DDR • CSIX L1 • CFrame : 32xn bit(n=1,2,3,4) with 100/200/250MHz  up to 32Gbps • 32bit @100MHz  32Gbps, OC-48 • 64bit @200MHz  12.8Gbps, OC-192 • 128bit @100MHz  12.8Gbps, OC-192 • LVCMOS(166MHz), LHSTL(250MHz), Trace Length : 6~8 inch • Header(2B) – Header Ext(4B) – Payload(256B) – Parity(2B) • Class (8bit  256 Class) , Destination (12 bit  4096 CSIX port) • Xon/Xoff port-level flow control, In-band control CFrame • Too many implementation option, Not optimized for 10G • NPF SI : • Logical protocol scalable from 10Gbps to 40 Gbps • 16 bit LVDS datapath 622MHz • NP-NP : 256 ~1M port, 256 class, NP-Fabric : 64K port, 256 class

  22. Performance 2Mb $70 66~100 Msps 0.18um 4.5Mb 0.15um 100 Msps $150 0.13um 9Mb 133 Msps $300 tCAM Lookup Processing • Search entries that match key(comparand) • CAM returns address of the matching location • Most designs optimized for 72 bit search, 72-bit comparand bus • Often runs at 2xcore clock or in DDR mode • 144bit key Write operation in single memory cycle for five-tuple lookup • 576bit search for IPv6

  23. Flow Classification for QoS Classification (classify flows) Scheduling (Priority) Rate Limiting (Per-flow RL) Control packets Voice flows HTTP flows FTP flows

  24. Per-Flow Rate Limiting • Flow • A sequence of packets with one common characteristics based on any field at certain layer for some period of time • Associate IP packets to flows, provide guarantees for specific flows • Rate Limiting • Bandwidth allocation for each Customer/Application/Flow • If current rate is within agreed controlled(in-profile), admit Otherwise (out-of-profile) discard or downgrade packet • Bandwidth Provisioning granularity • Packet Classification • Identifies the flow to the which an arriving packet belongs. • Identification may require complex operations • Stores this information internally once, then other blocks of NP operation for each packet using flow ID

  25. NPU Industry • System vendors want Complete Solutions • NPU, search engine, MAC, PHY, fabric • Reduces TCO, project overhead, and design time • Easier for new OEMs to enter market • Fast market creation using off-the-shelf NPUs • Successful vendors must offer all parts – driven continued M&A • Big CPU vendors jumped in • Intel, IBM, Motorola • PHY vendors moving upstream • AMCC, Vitesse, Agere • Software is a new challenge • Related players acquired • SwitchOn, Orologic, Maker, NetBoost, SoftCom, Trillium, QED, SiByte • Startup continue to emerge • EZchip, ClearWater, Cognigine, Bay Micro, Internet Machine, …

  26. Competition Map [NP1] AMCC (Market 40%) AMCC7250 • Same 7120 core • 220MHz, 0.18um • 2 SPI3 (2GMII or OC48c) Duplex • 10Gbps TM (5700) on Line card • ViX 5Gbps (no CSIX) • 2~4Gbps (Memory BW) • $300 4th Generation 3rd Generation • AMCC nP7510 • 0.13um Full-Customized nPcore • 10G (Simplex) Sample 4Q01 • Six engine @ 330MHz • ViX/SPI4 conversion chip • More Headroom • Ingress/Egress 2K Flow each • AMCC nP7570 • SPI4.2 Duplex version • Biggest Competitor IXP2800 nP7510 10G nP7570 10G nP7250 OC-48 2002.May 2003 Sample June2001 nP7270 OC-48 nP3400 2G+24F nP3404 4xGE AMCC 7120 2 packet engine(nPcore RISC) 220MHz, 0.18um 3Mpps, 5Gbps (line rate) ViX 5Gbps (Fabric interface) 440MBps (32bit SRAM lookup) Strong Compiler, Design Win Winner 0.13um Q2 2002 May 2001 2000 nP7120 2xGE nP3450 2G+24F nP3454 4xGE Integrated Switch 2000 Sample 3Q03 Sample 3Q03 NP Pioneer INTEL ( 11%) IXP1200 IXP2400 IXP2800 IXP2850 • StrongArm, 3Mpps@200MHz • IXBUS (External MAC) • 3rd software – Teja, IPinfusion,LynuxWorks • SDKv2.0 May/2001 (free) • C compiler $2000/site • Aggressive design win Push • Simplex OC-48 • 7Mpps @600MHz • CSIXL1 over SPI3 • 0.18um, Xscale based • $200~300, Sep. 2002 • 10G (Simplex) • 30Mpps with 16 packet engine(1.4GHz) • 700MHz Xscale at 0.13um • CSIX over SPI4.2 • >$400, Apr. 2003 • 2800 + Security

  27. Competition Map [NP2] IBM (19%) Agere ( 9%) APP550 APP750 Payload NP4GS3 NP4GX • APP550 • Duplex(OC-48, 4GbE) • TSMC 0.13um • 266MHz • $550, 2Q03 Volume • Traffic Manager $550 • APP520 • Duplex (2GbE, OC-48) • $195, Apr. 2003 • APP750 • Simplex (10Gbps) • SPI4.2 • Connection to PI40 • Agere 0.16um • Sample 2003 • NP+TM (860+$700) • PayloadPlus • 5Gbps, 3chip Solution ($585) • High-end ATM applications • On-chip SAR (OC-48 speed) • Scale well OC-192 • TSMC 0.18um Full custom, Late/2001 • NP4GS3(Rainier) • 4GbE MAC • PowerPC 405 + 16 packet engine • 8 Gbps line, 2x7.5Gbps fabric (DASL) • Difficult to program - No compiler, support customer base • Limited performance and poor scalability • 0.18um, $400 • 2001/Q1 Production • 4 GMII with CSIX/UDASL • 0.13um • Dropped Motorola (15%) C-5 C-5e C-3e C-10 • 4 GbE, OC-48 • 32bit Utopia, CSIX • MIPS-based compiler • 233MHz 0.18um • Production 2001, $400~500 • 10 Gbps (Simplex) • 600MHz 0.13um Custom design • SPI4.2 • Sample 2H03 with Q-10 • 4 GbE, OC-48 • 32bit CSIX • 266MHz 0.15um • Production 2002, $450 • Traffic Manager Q-5 ($575) • 1 GbE or 8 FE • 16bit Utopia • 180MHz 0.15um • Production 2002, $200 • Traffic Manager Q-3 ($235)

  28. NPU Industry Update • NPU Market Forecasting • NPU Market $1.5B @2005 [Cahners In-Stat, 2002] • NPU Market $728M @2005 [Gartner Dataquest, 2002] • NPU Market 2002 • $65 million (total Revenue) - A far cry from the hundreds of million dollars that IC maker till believe is possible • 600 design wins @2001 leads to $65 million @2002 • Market is questionable with annual $50 million spending • NPU Player • AMCC market leader : 38 % • Intel : 200 design wins • Motorola : 15% • IBM : 19%, High-end, but pulled out • Agere : Late player in IP, but actively • Vitesse : pulled out from long-haul business • Many startup ceased operation, even Big player pulled out • Key Issues • What is sweet-spot application? Storage, Security, L7 for IDC • Who will be remained? Alternative? 10G NPU, Access, Wireless

  29. ClearSpeed Fast-Chip Acorn Solidum Clearwater Cognigine MUSIC IBM Rainier Vitesse IQ2000 Allayer AL1032 Constellation 40G NPU 10G+ NPU Co-processor EZchip NP-2 Silicon Access EZchip NP-1 Xelerated Packet Intel IXP2800 AMCC nP7510 Internet Machine SwitchOn Lexra Agere APP750 CAM Bay Micro 2.5G NPU IDT Cypress/Lara Paion GEP2F24 SiberCore Paion GEP2C02 NetLogic Motorola C-5 Storage processor (TOE, iSCSI, FC) BroadCom SB12500 Agere APP550 Intel IXP2400 1G NPU Trebia MindSpeed CX27470 AMCC nP7250 Silverback Aristos Alacritech AMCC nP7120 Qlogic Adaptec Intel IXP1200 Wintegra SwitchCore CXE-16 Galileo GalNet-3

  30. [참고] Market Size and Market Share [Dataquest, 2002]

  31. tCAM Lookup Processor • IDT : Current market Leader • Major wins for Cisco, Acquiring IBM solution • 18Mb & LA-1, 100Msps, TSMC 0.13um, Sampling [2002.9] • 250Msps version 18Mb Sample Planned [1Q03] • Cypress/Lara : 2nd leader • NSE1000/2000 - 18Mb & LA-1, 233Msps, Sample [4Q02] • Leverage Ayama technology M&A [Feb. 2002] • NetLogic : aggressive performance • 18Mb NSE Sample • Second-source agreement with Micron[2003.1] • Micron pulled out [2003.3] • SiberCore : superior • 18Mb, 9Mb+LA-1, 288bit search with 50Msps, $250, Sampling [2002.8] • Ultra 18Mb Sampling [4Q02] • KLSI : Early lead with 4.5Mb • 9Mb delaying with competitors shipping 18Mb • Retreat from tCAM market at Jan/2003 • Micron/Music : Losing ground • Acquisition of Music - for low-end tCAM, 2002 • Abandon internal development, Partnership with NetLogic • But, Micron pulled out from tCAM market [March 2003]

  32. Packet Classifier • L4~7 Classification Chip • Application for Content Switching, Firewall, Virus scanning, Intrusion Detection

  33. [참고] Security Engines • Encryption Engines best suited for IPsec VPN applications • Integrated high-speed encryption engine with Network Processor will drive future • Gbps IPSec, SSL acceleration • Broadcom : • BCM5850 current fastest IPsec chip • 4.8Gbps IPsec (3DES, SHA-1, AES) • PL3 interface to BCM1250 processor • 2002 Oct Sample, $520 • Move toward integrating security chip into other products • Cavium NitroxII • First flow-through 2~10Gbps IPsec & SSL performance • 5Gbps IPsec, 38,000 SSL • 2002.4 Sampling, $295~$795 • HiFn HIPP-3 • Market leader in security, but lost the technology leader to Cavium, Corrent, and Layer N • Single chip (Encryption, Classification) • 20Gbps IPsec at 10GbE • Flow-through SPI4.2, HT, PCI-X • Sample Early 2003 • Merging Appititude, MeterFlow, into Security processor • Deep packet analysis after packets are decrypted • 10,000 or more SSL handshaking per second • Intel • 10Gbps On-chip encryption engine with $245 premium • SHA, 3DS, AES for IPsec, SSL application • General Sample 2Q03

  34. 1 1 1 N N N Switch Fabric Ingress Queue(VOQ) Crossbar Egress Queue(OQ) • Ingress data when there is no backpressure signal, i.e., queue is not full • Each ingress Q requests for cell transfer to Egress port • Ingress Request Generation Block generates and send requests to destination ports • Grant Generation Block selects one request from ingress ports and grant a transfer • Start cell transfer 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 N N N N Grant Configuration Uni/Multicast Arbitration Flow Control Request Scheduler

  35. Switch Fabric Requirement • Switching Bandwidth Increase • Single stage 40~80G with 16 or 32 ports (Today) • Need 320G+, Terabit Scalability required • Shared memory : 80Gbps physical limit? • Crossbar : High speed implementation, intelligent scheduling • Efficient Scalability • Multi-stage architecture is inevitable for 10s of Tbps router - bit-slicing method is limited • Performance is a factor of flow control, priority schemes, latency and Non-blocking behavior for Unicast/Multicast/ Broadcast traffic • Total Cost of Ownership • Number of chips, power consumption, Multi shelf interconnect • Low Power high-speed Serial Technology • N+K redundancy trade-off is driven by system cost • Support for multiple services • IP, Ethernet, ATM, TDM

  36. [참고] Market Forecast [2000]

  37. Switch Fabric Market Update [2003] • Market • Various analysts projected it to exceed $ 1 billion by 2004, with CAGR 60% • Market was too much over forecasted [Gartner Dataquest, 2000] • Service Provider Router Market [Synergy Research Group, 2003] • But as we enter 2003, telecom continues to be moribund • New chassis design launches are important for switch fabric market; switch fabric is one of the first architecture decision point

  38. Fabric Trend Update • More system upgrades than new chassis • Cap-ex spending is down • Design-win momentum slowing • Long-term fabric market is healthy • Most OEMs using merchant fabric silicon from in-house ASIC • New design will start again on 2004 for new box (06) • Backbone product design cycle : 6~7 years, last cycle was ’99 • Volume and prices continue to decline • Slowdown forcing consolidation • Alliance are critical for success • Optimize cost/performance curve • Integrated fabric and Traffic Manager • Focus shifted from 10G to 1~2.5G application • Trend toward standard interface • Standard CSIX/SPI allows flexible choice of NPU • CSIX-L1 for OC-48, Many options in the spec • NPF-SI addressed 10G applications

  39. Switch Fabric Players • PMC-Sierra • Pulled out Fabric and network processing business • But the ace up MPC-Sierra’s sleeve could be microprocessor division • IBM • 10Gbps to 320Gbps, So far leader in fabric market • PowerPRS fabric marketed together with PowerNP network Processor • Pulled out Fabric market, Sold to AMCC at $47 million • Vitesse • Leading incumbent vendors • GigaStream offers leading integration and power dissipation at OC-48 • TeraStream has less competitive feature sets and lags in throughput • AMCC • Through acquisition, AMCC provides total solutions • Latest product, nPX5800, scales to 160Gbps  being cancelled • PowerPRS will replace 5800 • Yuni networks, fills the 640Gbps fabric solution • Agere • Third generation fabric Pi40, first commercial multi-terabit switch fabric • Leading product at throughput of 320Gbps and above • With 10Gbps NPU, Agere offers all the major components of router designs • Startups • Mindspeed, ZettaCom, Erlang, Paion • Many a startups pulled out • PowerX, TransWarp, PetaSwitch, Tau, TeraBlaze, TeraCross

  40. Competition Map [Switch Fabric] 2.5Tbps Agere PI40 80G/2.5Tbps Marvell • Prestera FX9130 • 80G/5Tbps • 2003 TeraChip • 160G/1.28Tbps • 2003 • 80Gbps(1SF+4QM) • 2.5Tbps(32SF+128QM) • 2Q02 Sample • Agere 0.16um, $1100 1.2Tbps AMCC nPX8005 TeraCross PetaSwitch • Glimps 1000 • 80G/1.2Tbps • Intel FAB + IXP2800 • Pisces 40/1.2Tbps • 320Gbps(3chip) • Sample 1H02 • UMC 0.15um • 320Gbps(8SF+ 2SC+QM) • 640Gbps(16SF+ 4SC+QM) • 1.2Tbps(32SF+8SC+QM) IBM EQ+ 640Gbps PMC TTX Broadcom ZettaCom Internet Machine TAU • Gemini • 40/640Gbps • 3Q02 • 40/640G • 40G(1+4) • 320G(8+32) • 640G(16+64) • 3Q02 320Gbps • 80/640G PMC ETT1 320Gbps IBM Q64G 160/320Gbps Mindspeed iScale 40/320Gbps Erlang • 80/640G • 40Gbps(1SF+2QM) • 320Gbps(8SF+16QM) • TSMC 0.18um • 160Gbps(4SF+16QM) • 320Gbps(8SF+32QM) • 1H/02 160Gbps AMCC Npx5800 20/160Gbps Vitesse TeraStream 80/160Gbps • 20Gbps(1SF+ 1QM) • 160Gbps(8SF+ 4QM) • 80Gbps(2SF+8QM) • 160Gbps(4SF+16QM) • 2Q/02, CSIX, 16class • $1154+$690 Vitesse GigaStream 20/80Gbps Agere PI-X 20/80Gbps 80Gbps IBM 64G 40/80Gbps • 40Gbps(1SF+ 4QM) • 80Gbps(2SF+ 8QM) • 1Q/02, Utopia, 8class • $240+$400 Vitesse CS 32/64Gbps AMCC 5500 20/40Gbps • 2Q/01 2001 2002 2003

  41. Switch Fabric Class

  42. [참고]Fabric Architecture Comparison

  43. 변화와 대안 Retrospect Telco Crash 생태계(Eco-System) 의 변화 변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리 기업들 자금시장 변화 Network 기술 시장 대안 Network SOC 의 Re-positioning

  44. Retrospect Network SOC Roadmap Intelligence (Layer) 10G+ NPU 7 EZchip NP-1 Intel Lexra Agere AMCC nP7510 Internet Machines Silicon Access Clearwater Cognigine Bay Micro Xelerated Packet Device EZchip NP-2 ClearSpeed Multi-Service Platform 2.5G NPU Next Generation Mobile Infrastructure 6 AMCC nP7250 Vitesse IQ2200 MindSpeed CX27470 BroadCom SB12500 Giga/Terabit Backbone Intelligent and Secure Cisco GSR12416 Juniper M160 Charlotte Arenea-1 Lucent NX64000 Avici TSR Pluris Teraplex 5 8 9 32 56 4 Nexsi 8000 Alteon 180+ Arrowpoint CSS1100 Foundry ServerIron800 F5 BGP-IP Motorola C-5 IBM Rainier Vitesse IQ2000 IronCore ASIC Intel CustomASIC WebIC MMC 1G NPU Metro Ethernet Broadband 4 Foundry Big Iron 15000 Fast Iron III GEP4C04 Intel IXP1200 AMCC nP7120 In-House ASIC Riverstone RS38000 Foundry Fast Iron II+ Foundry Fast Iron II 120 3 64 96 32 256 24 48 139 144 160 120 Cisco Catalyst 6513 Cisco Catalyst 7606 Intel SwitchCore CXE-16 Extreme Black Diamond 6816 Cajun P882 40 60 32 Galileo GalNet-3 Intel BroadCom Acute Allayer AL1032 Extreme Black Diamond 6808 Extreme Alpine 3808 Summit7i Riverstone RS8600/ RS16000 320G SF 640G SF 64G SF 2 Agere PI40X/C PMC-sierra TTX IBM PRS-EQ Vitesse VSC882 IBM PRS64G MindSpeed CX27302 Paion GES0032 AMCC nP8000 Velio VC2002 Paion MOSAIC PMC-sierra ETT1 AMCC nP5800 Power X SX-16 ZettaCom ZEST-IXS 32 64 128 256 512 8 16 4 Bandwidth (Gbps) 2001.10.17 전략기술개발사업 기술기획

  45. Telecom Collapse • Largest Network equipment buyers • Capital spending cut from $116B(00) to $46B(02) :60% drop • Telco revenue $197B for voice, $63B for data [2001 US] • Carriers spend 15% of revenues on equipment • Cut off 500,000 jobs in two years • 61 service provider bankruptcies • 11 of the top 25 money losing firms in 2001 were telecom • Total $107B losses • $470B of debt $ • Not going to return to the late 1990s in a near-term recovery • New business strategies are required

  46. Impact • Effects on Vendor • DSL, wireless, cable vendors devastated – customers collapsed • Components awful – no new design wins • Optical very bad – revenues off 80% • Core routing bad – revenues off 50% • Effects on Financial Market • 60,000 jobs lost in investment banking since 1/2001 - no acquisitions or IPOs • 2,500 companies were acquired or went public in the 1996-2000 boom • Over 10,000 venture-backed private companies now • At least 7,500 (75% or more) will run out of money in 2002-2005

  47. Intel Agere AMCC 생태계의 변화 Motorola EZchip Silicon Access Wintegra ZettaCom Internet Machines Marvell Broadcom Vitesse Zarlink Power X

  48. Market Value Erosion

  49. Stock Market

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