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The Engine/Energy Transition to Tomorrow

The Engine/Energy Transition to Tomorrow. David Lynch Cummins Westport Inc. March 27, 2008. What is changing ?. Higher vehicle pricing for new technology Higher cost of Ultra Low Sulfur diesel fuel SCR for 2010 -- cost implications The shifting economics of diesel operation

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The Engine/Energy Transition to Tomorrow

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  1. The Engine/Energy Transition to Tomorrow David Lynch Cummins Westport Inc. March 27, 2008

  2. What is changing ? • Higher vehicle pricing for new technology • Higher cost of Ultra Low Sulfur diesel fuel • SCR for 2010 -- cost implications • The shifting economics of diesel operation • Concern about Green House Gases

  3. Whatare your alternatives? • Get out your checkbook • Conserve diesel fuel however you can • Change vehicle specifications • Bus and Truck specs for fuel economy • Consider other alternatives

  4. Diesel ULSD Active Diesel Particulate Filters CEGR (ISC/ISL) NOx Adsorber or SCR SCR more efficient but a liquid that will be regulated and taxed Crank Case Ventilation (CV) ’07 Lube Oil Will require new, low ash oil New Oil Filters = 1.2 NOx + 0.01 PM in 2007 0.2 NOx + 0.01 PM in 2010 Natural Gas No change- CNG or LNG capable Replace Oxicat with Three Way Catalyst Add- CEGR (ISL G) No NOX adsorber required No CV required–reduced maintenance vs. LBSI No Change- Low Ash Oil in use today CES20074 Fleetguard Filter = 0.2 NOx + 0.01 PM in 2007 Diesel / NG Pathways to 2010

  5. Consider……… What to do until the Psychiatrist Arrives

  6. What are your alternatives? Consider an Alternative to Diesel Fuel

  7. What about natural gas ? • Cleaner burning than diesel • Abundant supply in North America • Engine efficiency improving over diesel • Renewable fuel – LFG to LNG • Can be less expensive to operate than diesel • Latest technology engines available

  8. ISL G – Next Generation Natural Gas Engine • 8.9 litre Stoichiometric EGR engine: • Lowest emissions • 0.20 g/bhp-hr NOx • 0.01 g/bhp-hr PM • Higher efficiency • Diesel-like reliability & durability • Improved performance - Higher clutch engagement torque • 250-320 Ratings • Increasing OEM Availability • Fourth generation Launched June, 2007

  9. 2007 ISL G RatingsRating Matching Example Peak PowerPeak TorqueTransmission MatchApplication 320 @ 2000 1000 @ 1300 Allison B500 Urban Bus Allison 4500RDS Truck 300 @ 2100 860 @ 1300 Allison 3500 RDS Truck 280 @ 2000 900 @ 1300 Allison B400 Urban Bus School Bus 260 @ 2200 660 @ 1300Allison 3500 RDSSweeper Yard Spotter 250 @ 2200 730 @ 1300Allison B300 Shuttle Bus School Bus ISL G rated speed is the same as ISL diesel, eliminating the need to review and adjust final drive ratios

  10. Four Generations of Natural Gas Engines 2007 1998 2001 2004 • C8.3G Mechanical • Introduced in 1998 • Major improvement over 1st generation CNG L10 Series • Over 4000 still in service • Improved Reliability • C Gas Plus • Introduced in 2001 • State of the art spark ignition/control system • First engine 2004 EPA Certified • Six fold reliability Increase • L Gas Plus • Introduced in 2004 • Improved Ignition control system • VG Turbo • Based on 8.9 L ISL Block • 2007 NOx and 2010 PM levels • ISL G • Introduced in June 2007 • Stoichiometric EGR combustion • Wastegate Turbo • Three Way Catalyst • First HD engine certified 2010 NOx and PM levels

  11. 2007 ISL G Benefits • Meets 2010 Emission Standards • More fuel efficient • No exhaust system related maintenance costs • Improved clutch engagement torque (+34%) • 80% of design based upon diesel engine platform • Uses a renewable fuel found in North America • Substantial GHG Reductions

  12. GHG Well to Wheel Analysis - GH Genius Post 2010 Results (Southern BC) 22.6% GHG reduction Including vehicle material and assembly - 21.9% GHG

  13. ISL G Applications/OEMs REFUSE URBAN TRANSIT VOCATIONAL FUTURE

  14. What about the cost of change? • Standard CWI LCC model default assumption set • Not whole vehicle cost • Incremental natural gas related capital, and engine, fuel system, detection maintenance • Also includes capital and maintenance required for fuel infrastructure, and maintenance facilities • $1 Million facility modifications for both refuse and transit • 50 truck fleet refuse and 70 bus fleet transit - actual property-southern US • Urban Bus analysis assumes CNG • Refuse analysis assumes LNG Fuel Prices: • Diesel Fuel (refuse): $2.30 / gallon ($0.05 added for ULSD) • Diesel Fuel (urban bus): $2.20 / gallon ($0.05 added for ULSD) • Liquid Natural Gas (refuse): $1.72 DGE (prior to application of Highway Bill excise tax credit) • $675,000 LNG infrastructure capital not included in fuel price but included in model • Natural Gas (transit): $1.70 DGE (prior to application of Highway Bill excise tax credit) • Includes commodity, O&M, electricity and $2 Million station 80% FTA funded • Assume that Highway/Energy Bill tax credit flows fully & completely to end-user • Actual impact on end-user TBD • Assume Energy Bill credit applies to net incremental cost after FTA funding (83%) is applied (Urban Bus only) • Maximum $12,000 Energy Bill Credit to OEM for Hybrid (no Highway Bill credits) • Assume that Energy & Highway Bill provisions remain in effect beyond 2010 • Diesel Electric Hybrid fuel economy benefit assumed to be 20%, based on recent projections from fleets (e.g. Ottawa)

  15. LCC Analysis – US Urban Bus Diesel Diesel Electric Hybrid Natural Gas Diesel Electric Hybrid with Energy Bill Provisions Natural Gas with Energy & Highway Bill Provisions $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $3191 $2786 $2269 $1746 $1496 $1472 $1370 $655 $1067 ($836) ($955) Relative Annual Costs (US$/unit/yr) $0 ($5,000) ($9263) ($10305) ($10,305) ($10,000) ($15,000) 2004-2006 2007-2009 2010+ Model Year

  16. LCC Analysis - Refuse Collection Diesel Cummins Westport Cummins Westport with Energy & Highway Bill Provisions $15,000 2.5 2.0 $10,000 $5743 1.5 $5,000 $2573 $2498 $2498 $1675 NOx Emission Level (g/bhp-hr) Baseline Relative Annual Costs (US$/unit/yr) 1.0 $0 Private ($3337) Private ($4144) Private ($4144) Public ($5962) Public ($6644) Public ($6644) 0.5 ($5,000) 0 ($10,000) ($15,000) 2010+ 2004-2006 2007-2009 Model Year

  17. US P&D with Federal Incentives Diesel Natural Gas Natural Gas with Energy & Highway Bill Provisions $7,500 2.5 $6.3K $5.3K $5.3K 2.0 $5,000 1.5 $2,500 $1.7K $1K NOx Emission Level (g/bhp-hr) Baseline Relative Annual Costs (US$/unit/yr) 1.0 $0 $2.5K 0.5 ($2,500) $3.3K $3.3K 0 ($5,000) ($7,500) Model Year 2007-2009 Model Year Current Model Year 2010+

  18. What is over the Horizon ? • LCNG • LFG to LNG • HCNG

  19. Conclusions • The economics of vehicle operations are shifting • Energy/Highway Bill funding makes Natural Gas a Bargain. • Some businesses will profit from the opportunity.

  20. Why Natural Gas Engines for Buses & Trucks? Emissions Leadership • ISL G is the only Urban Bus and Truck engine that met 2010 EPA Emissions at launch in 2007 Emerging Economic Benefits • Continuous reliability improvement • ISL G Improved Efficiency • Greatest benefits in high fuel use applications • Energy Security • Reduced reliance on imported oil • Lower fuel costs • Pathway to hydrogen

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