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The Simulation and Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation of CAM on Sahel Drought. Yi-Chih Huang. Sahel Drought (I). Nicholson et al. 2000. Dai et al. 2004. Sahel Drought (II). Todd Mitchell’s web page. GPCP. Global Precipitation climatology Project Data
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The Simulation and Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation of CAM on Sahel Drought Yi-Chih Huang
Sahel Drought (I) Nicholson et al. 2000 Dai et al. 2004
Sahel Drought (II) Todd Mitchell’s web page
GPCP • Global Precipitation climatology Project • Data • 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid from Jan 1979 to Sep 2009 • 1 x 1 degree grid from Oct 1996 to Jun 2009 • Created by merging • rain gauge data • Infrared estimates of precipitation • microwave satellite estimates of precipitation • Scattering : Wilheit et al. (1991) histogram approach • Emission : Grody (1991) scattering index
CMAP • The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation • Data • on 2.5 x 2.5 degree grid from 1979 to 2008 • pentad and monthly analysis • Sources • gauge observations • five kinds satellite estimates (IR-based GPI, OLR-based OPI, MSU, microwave scattering and microwave emission) • NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
Hydrological Onset and Withdrawal Index Dalu, et al., 2009
Histogram of African Surface Temperature Departures for CAM v CRU
African Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU
Histogram of African Surface Temperature Departures for CAM v NCEP
African Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP
Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU
Sahelian Surface Temperature Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP
RMS Histograms of African Precipitation Departures for CAM v CRU
African Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU
RMS Histograms of African Precipitation Departures for CAM v NCEP
African Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP
Sahelian Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v CRU
Sahelian Precipitation Departures with Least/Largest RMSE for CAM v NCEP
Summary • Since late 1960’s precipitation in Sahelian region is almost persistently below the longterm mean • The patterns of mean CAM ensemble precipitation in August 2000 are very different from CRU, GPCP, CMAP and NCEP • CAM is Compared with CRU and NCEP • No ensemble run is in the groups with the least RMSE’s in both temperature and precipitation • Several runs are in groups with the largest RMSE’s in both temperature and precipitation in African and Sahelian domains