Presentation Transcript

1. TCRP Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation

2. Welcome A.T. Stoddard, PhD, PE Principal - LSC Transportation Consultants Corey Pitts, AICP Transportation Planner - Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc (VHB)
3. History Project B-3 (1995) Methods for forecasting Demand based on data from 39 selected counties Workbook and spreadsheet (in 1-2-3) Methods applied by states and agencies Mixed reviews Project B-36 Methods for both Need and Demand Used national databases Considered new travel markets
4. Why New Methodology? Markets have changed FTA requirement for Public Transportation-Human Service Coordination Plan Plans will be more useful if related to measures of unmet need and served demand Internet provides easy access to data not readily available in 1995 Good forecasts provide support for funding from local governments
5. Input from Practitioners Need = number of persons likely to require service Demand = Use of service at given level of quality and cost Both are required; need may be more important to build support It may be more useful to forecast demand related to changes from a base condition
6. Data Sources Demographic data – American Community Survey (and PUMS) Only source for disability data 3-Year data available for areas having a population of 20,000 or more 5-Year data for areas of all size available at the tract level
7. Data Sources National Household Travel Survey Valid data only for large geographic areas Rural National Transit Database (NTD) Service areas not clearly identified Patronage by market not specified Some questions about data quality General public services only
8. http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_rpt_161.pdf
9. http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/tcrp_w58.pdf
10. http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/168758.aspx
11. Goals of the Workshop Understand concepts of need and demand Explore methodologies for estimating need and demand Become familiar with workbook Identify sources of data (collect when appropriate) Select and apply appropriate methodologies Understand and apply spreadsheet tool

12. Introduction to TCRP Report 161

13. Workbook Contents and Organization Quick Start Guide Introduction Need Demand Data Sources Appendices
14. Features Worksheets Hot links to Census data (electronic version) Spreadsheet for application
15. Quick Start Guide Basic data required to estimate need and demand Service characteristics Service area population Service area (square miles) Annual vehicle-miles Annual vehicle-hours Number of one-way trips served (boardings) Community Characteristics Area of each county in service area (square miles) College/University enrollment List of social service agencies providing transportation
16. Methodologies: Need Populations in need Mobility Gap Number of trips needed
17. Methodologies: Demand - Four Markets General purpose rural – mostly demand response Program trips – tied to human service programs Small city fixed route – in small communities, under 50,000 population* Commuters – rural area to urban center* * New topic not addressed in project B-3
18. Appendices A – Retrieving Data from the American Community Survey (ACS) B – Step by Step Instructions for the Rural Transit Need and Demand Spreadsheet C – Suggested Guidelines for Data Collection

19. Important Definitions

20. Some Important Definitions... Need Demand Mobility Gap Trip Program Trip Non-Program Trip Rural Urbanized Area Urban Cluster Urban Center
21. Need and Demand Need relates to transportation that is required so that individuals can fulfill life needs and participate in society. Need is independent of the quality of available transportation Need is measured in two ways: people and trips Demand is the number of trips that will be made using a transportation service offered at a given price and level of service. Demand is measured in trips
22. Need – Trip Based Mobility Gap - The difference between the number of trips made by persons with access to a personal vehicle and those who lack such access Represents the full unmet trip need relative to those with relatively unfettered mobility Measured in trips per day Serving all of the unmet need is unrealistic. This measure can be used to estimate the proportion of unmet need that is served or to set goals based on proportion served
23. Definitions – Trip Types Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity Trip time and destination established by agency Non-program trips – akin to general public transportation but includes trips made using a service limited to specific groups (e.g. persons age 60 or over) Trip time and destination chosen by traveler
24. Definitions - Trip In this methodology a trip is a one-way trip from point A to point B For fixed-route and non-program trips, a “trip” is as defined for the National Transit Database i.e. a “boarding” For program or sponsored trips, a “trip” is a linked trip from original origin to ultimate destination
25. Definitions (continued) Rural – a county which has a population density less than 1,000 persons per square mile Urbanized Area – a central place and adjacent territory with population density ≥ 1,000 persons per square mile and total population of at least 50,000
26. Definitions (continued) Urban Cluster – A densely settled area with a population between 2,500 and 50,000 Defined by U.S. Census Urban Center – the central place of an urbanized area As used in the demand forecasting methodology and Workbook

27. Transportation Need

    Population Segments Method
28. Need Population Based Number of persons residing in households owning no vehicle Vehicle ownership more important than age Number of persons residing in households with income below the poverty line Data for each group, individually, available from the American Community Survey
29. Vehicle Ownership is more important than age
30. ACS Data 1 – year data areas of 65,000 or more population 3 – year data areas of 20,000 or more population 5 – year data block group level
31. Table Numbers for ACS Data Retrieval Households by Vehicle Availability B08201 Persons residing in households with income below the poverty level B17001
32. Need – Population Based Number of Persons Residing in Households with Income Below the Poverty Line Number of Persons Residing in Households with No Vehicle Available

33. Population Segments Method

    Example
34. Persons Living in Households with No Vehicle Available (B08201)
35. Persons Living in Households with Income Below the Poverty Line (B17001)
36. Population Segments Method Result 5,827 1,881 7,708

37. Transportation Need

    Mobility Gap Method
38. Need – Trip Based Mobility Gap- The difference between the number of trips made by persons with access to a personal vehicle and those who lack such access Represents the full unmet trip need relative to those with relatively unfettered mobility Measured in trips per day Serving all of the unmet need is unrealistic. This measure can be used to estimate the proportion of unmet need that is served or to set goals based on proportion served
39. Definitions - Trip In this methodology a trip is a one-way trip from point A to point B
40. Source: National Household Travel Survey- 2009
41. Mobility Gap by Census Region (NHTS 2009)
42. Mobility Gap Number of Households with No Vehicle Available (B08201) Mobility Gap (by Region)

43. Mobility Gap Method

    Example
44. Households with No Vehicle Available (Data for Bedford County, VA)
45. Mobility Gap Calculation Data for Bedford County VA: Households with no vehicle available = 1,205 Gap (Division 5, South Atlantic) = 1.3 trips per day Daily Mobility Gap ≈ 1,600 Trips Annual Mobility Gap ≈ 480,000 Trips* *Assumes 300 days of service
46. Compare to Service Provided List service providers in your area Tabulate trips served per day (average day) for each provider Report by market group if possible Sum trips Compare to computed Mobility Gap Report estimated percent of Gap served
47. Uses of Mobility Gap Based Need Estimate Estimated Trip Need = X trips per day @ 1.0 trips/mile = X Miles - Existing Daily Vehicle Miles to satisfy 100% of estimated need TCRP Report 98 provides methodology and software for estimating the number of vehicles to serve any given level of demand http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/153268.aspx

48. General Public Rural Demand

    Peer Method
49. General Public Rural Transit Two basic approaches to developing forecasts Peer analysis Demand Function
50. Definitions Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity Trip time and destination established by agency Non-program trips – akin to general public but includes trips made using a service limited to specific groups (e.g. persons age 60 or over) Trip time and destination chosen by traveler
51. General Public (Peer Comparisons) Preferred Sources of Data (in decreasing order) Your System Systems Operating in Similar Rural Settings in Your State Systems Operating in Similar Rural Settings Elsewhere
52. Selecting Peers Operating environment Size of service area (population; square miles) Presence of college or university Funding sources Degree of coordination Social service programs in operation Agency provided client transportation
53. Sources of Peer Data Your state transit agency or transportation agency State transit association Your state Neighboring states National Rural Transit Database Call other agencies For larger systems: Integrated National Transit Database Analysis System
54. General Public (Peer Comparisons) Information Needed (for identified peer systems) Population of the area served Size in square miles of the area served Presence of major generator (College, Employer, etc.) Annual vehicle-miles and/or vehicle-hours of service provided Nature of the operation (e.g. fixed-route, route-deviation, demand-response) Number of one-way trips served (per month, per year) Degree of coordination with other carriers
55. General Public (Peer Comparisons) Who are peers of your system? How can you get data?
56. General Public Method (Peer) Compute the following values for each system’s data: Passenger Trips per Capita Passenger Trips per Vehicle Mile (by service type) Passenger Trips per Vehicle Hour (by service type)

57. Peer Method

    Example
58. Peer Data Worksheet Peer B Peer C Peer A 88,661 87,614 82,879 835 1,037 1,154 200,676 316,403 130,376 14,390 20,252 10,009 221,910 224,046 57,874 FR FR FR Unk Unk Unk 2.56 0.70 2.50 0.71 0.44 1.11 11.06 5.78 15.42
59. Compute the Following 2.50 2.56 0.70 0.44 1.11 0.71 11.06 5.78 15.42 2.50 0.70 2.56 1.92 1.11 0.71 0.44 0.75 5.78 15.42 10.75 11.06
60. General Public Method (Peer)
61. Peer Comparison Results

62. General Public Rural Demand

    Non-program trips
63. Non-Program Trip Demand Demand is a function of Population Groups: Elderly age 60 and over B01001 Mobility limitation age 18 to 64 S1810 Residents in Households with No Vehicle Available B08201
64. Non-Program Demand Function 2.20 Population Age 60+ Mobility Limited Population Age 18-64 5.21 Residents of Households with No Vehicle 1.52

65. Non-Program Trips

    Example
66. Non-Program Demand Function
67. Non-Program Demand Function
68. Non-Program Demand Function
69. Non-Program Demand Function 2.20 14,697 5.21 1,537 1.52 1,745

70. Rural Public Transit Demand

    Non-market specific
71. Rural Public Transportation Demand Another method for estimating demand for non-program trips “General Public” Trips Reported to Rural NTD Method relates expected demand to estimate of need (mobility gap) and amount of service provided Can be used to compare change in demand with service expansion/reduction
72. Rural Public Transportation Demand 2.44 Need0.028 Annual Vehicle-Miles0.749 Need = Mobility Gap time 300 Days of Service

73. Demand - Program Trips

74. Definition Program trips – trips that would not be made but for the existence of a specific social service program or activity Trip time and destination established by agency
75. Types of Human Service Programs Adult day care Developmental Services Group Homes Head Start Job Training Mental Health Senior Nutrition Sheltered Workshop/ Employment Service Organization (ESO)
76. Group discussion What other human service programs operate in your areas? Do they provide transportation? How do you work with them?
77. Program Trip Demand Equals... Number of Program Participants Program Events per Week The Proportion of Program Participants who attend the Program on an Average Day The Proportion of Program Participants that are Transit Dependent The Number of Weeks per Year the Program is Offered 2 (trips per participant per event)
78. Suggestion When preparing a Coordinated Plan obtain from each agency the data required to estimate transportation demand

79. Program Trips

    Example

80. Small City Fixed Route

    Micropolitan Areas
81. Definition A small city, for purposes of this analysis, is one with a population of less than 50,000 located within a county that is not within an urbanized area.
82. Small City Fixed Route Method Revenue-hours of Service 5.77 1.07 Population (B01003) College/ University Enrollment 7.12
83. Small City Fixed Route Data Sources of Data College/University http://www.collegeboard.org/

84. Small-city Fixed Route

    Example
85. Rural Public Transportation Demand
86. Small City Fixed Route Method 5.77 19,857 1.07 19,257 7,358 7.12

87. Commuters to Urban Centers

88. Definition Conditions of application Travel from a county that is not part of an urbanized area Travel to a county that is in an urbanized area Commuter trips per day by all modes from home in county A to workplace in county B in the range of 2,000 – 30,000
89. Commuter Trip Demand Function 2 Proportion Using Transit for Commuter Trips from Rural County to Urban Place Number of Commuters
90. Demand Function (cont.) 0.024 0.0000056 Workers Commuting from Rural County to Urban Place 0.00029 Distance in Miles from Rural County to Urban Place 0.015 (if the Urban Place is a state capital)
91. Sources of Commuter Trip Data Urbanized area Metropolitan Planning Organization Statewide travel model American Community Survey (ACS) Local Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)
92. US Census’ Local Employer-Household Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/

93. Commuters to Urban Centers

    Example
94. Commuter Trip Demand Function 2 Proportion Using Transit for Commuter Trips from Rural County to Urban Place Number of Commuters
95. Demand Function (cont.) 0.024 0.0000056 2,433 0.00029 22 0.015 (if the Urban Place is a state capital)
96. Commuter Trip Demand Function 2 0.031 2,433

97. Using the Excel Spreadsheet

98. Thank YouContact Info:A.T. Stoddard atstoddard@lsctrans.comCorey Pittscpitts@vhb.com