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SET contributions to TIMED SEE in 2004

This report covers significant upgrades to Solar Irradiance S2K v2.24, introducing new integrated proxies and enhancing forecast capabilities, now streaming real-time to 72-hour predictions. ISO 21348 compliance and advanced models like GAIM and Schatten Dynamo are discussed.

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SET contributions to TIMED SEE in 2004

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  1. SET contributions to TIMED SEE in 2004 TIMED SEE report November 29, 2004 W. Kent Tobiska

  2. Overview Background to S2K v2.24 Motivations Definitions Major upgrades to S2K v2.24 FUV-UV variability, SEE v7, IDL VM, S2KPG 7 new integrated irradiance proxies Historical, nowcast, forecast improvements ISO 21348 compliance

  3. Background to S2K v2.24 • Motivations - operational and space physics users • HASDM success • GAIM prototype and IFS • Planetary aeronomy • ISO 21348 maturity • Definitions for time states • past, present, and future time state data • current epoch • historical or previous, nowcast or current, and forecast or predicted data • enhanced or core data streams • cadence

  4. Example: HASDM forecasts

  5. Neutral density and winds, solar irradiance and wind, magnetosphere, charged particles, and electric fields are the physical climatological drivers into the GAIM ionospheric model. Near real-time data provides corrections. Example: Operational Ionospheric Forecast System

  6. Total Electron Content (TEC): • slant and vertical TEC provided on latitude, longitude, and time grid for a given GPS receiver • real-time data useful for situational awareness while next 24-hours forecast TEC useful for mission planning and “go/no-go” decision-making. Result: real-time to 72-hour global to local ionosphere

  7. (1) Major upgrades to S2K v2.24 FUV-UV variability VUV2002 (Woods) provides 122-420 nm variability SEE v7 S2K v2.24 uses SEE v7 for absolute fluxes IDL VM S2K now runs on any platform without IDL license by using IDL 6.0 Virtual Machine S2K PG S2K PG model provides daily forecasts out to 4.5 months, updated hourly, for operational users

  8. (2) Major upgrades to S2K v2.24 6 existing integrated irradiance proxies • E10.7– EUV energy flux (satellite drag, TEC) • QEUV– thermospheric heat rate (aeronomy) • PEUV– EUV hemispheric power (aeronomy) • T– exospheric temperature (climate change) • RSN– derived sunspot number (HF radio) • S– integrated solar spectrum (SRP, s/c attitude) 7 new integrated irradiance proxies • E1_40, XE10.7– integrated EUV 1-40 nm energy (satellite drag) • Xb10, Xhf, X10.7– XUV background and flare index (flare effects) • ESRB, ESRC – Schumann-Runge Band, Ctm energy (dynamics)

  9. S2K v2.24 caveats Wavelength range of 105-121 nm • does not match well with TIMED SEE data • because S2K v2.24 uses SC21REFW wavelength format template and very few lines are listed in that spectral region • will be corrected with the inclusion of atomic physics database templates in a future derivation 27-day variability • variability ratio is damped for chromospheric lines • because derivation uses only SEE data and the derivation algorithm gives more weight to the 81-day values through the z power term to prevent negative fluxes during solar minimum or anomalously high fluxes during solar maximum • will be corrected as SEE reaches extended solar minimum values and algorithm will see beyond the linear solar max to min trend Qeuv & Tinf - invalid for F10.7 greater than ~400

  10. S2KPG & RGv2.24provides historical, nowcast, and operational forecast XUV-UV variability in several spectral and proxy formats using the IDL 6.0 Virtual Machine that runs on any platform

  11. S2K v2.24 soft X-rays & SEE v7

  12. S2K v2.24 EUV & SEE v7

  13. S2K v2.24 correlation coefs

  14. E1_40 E1_40 and XE10.7

  15. E1_40 and XE10.7

  16. (1) Xb10, Xhf, and X10.7

  17. (2) Xb10, Xhf, and X10.7

  18. (3) Xb10, Xhf, and X10.7

  19. (4) Xb10, Xhf, and X10.7

  20. (5) Xb10, Xhf, and X10.7

  21. (6) Xb10, Xhf, and X10.7

  22. (7) Xb10, Xhf, and X10.7

  23. (8) Xb10, Xhf, and X10.7

  24. (9) Xb10, Xhf, and X10.7

  25. (3) Major upgrades to S2K v2.24 Historical Archival at http://www.SpaceWx.com Nowcast S2K OP v2.24 to be upgraded at NOAA/SEC Forecast Schatten dynamo model has been included for 5 solar cycles Continuous wavelet transform will link forecast algorithms in FGen 2

  26. Prediction Jan 1 2004 Wavelet transform - E10.7

  27. DIS 21348: Process for determining solar irradiances

  28. ISO 21348 compliance • SOLAR2000 v2.24 empirical/hybrid model products (irradiance, spectral irradiance, and integrated irradiance proxies) • Compliant with ISO 21348 Space environment (natural and artificial) – Process for determining solar irradiances • ISO 21348 type 3 designation • provides total solar irradiance information, solar integrated irradiance proxies, and values for the solar irradiance spectral categories from 1–1,000,000 nm (soft Xrays into radio wavelengths) in SI units of W m-2 as well as conversions to community-useful units of energy (ergs cm-2 s-1-1) and photon (photons cm-2 s-1-1) flux • Values are reported through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) Interactive Data Language (IDL) application

  29. Solar spectrum comparison

  30. ISO 21348 wavelength ranges

  31. Summary • Background to S2K v2.24 • Motivations from operational and space physics users • Definitions for time states and cadence • Major upgrades to S2K v2.24 • FUV-UV variability, SEE v7, IDL 6.0 VM, S2KPG release • 7 new integrated irradiance proxies: E1_40, XE10.7,Xb10, Xhf, X10.7, ESRB, ESRC • Historical, nowcast, forecast (FGen 2) improvements • ISO 21348 compliance • S2K v2.24 is our first model version certifying compliance with the ISO solar irradiance standard

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