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Particulate-Matter Modeling with UAM-Aero: IMS-95 January 4-6, 1996 Episode

Particulate-Matter Modeling with UAM-Aero: IMS-95 January 4-6, 1996 Episode. Presented by: Modeling Staff of ARB/UCD. ARB Ajith Kaduwela Luis Woodhouse Jinyou Liang Vernon Hughes Karen Magliano Richard Hackney. UCD Michael Kleeman Tony Held. Contributors. IMS-95.

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Particulate-Matter Modeling with UAM-Aero: IMS-95 January 4-6, 1996 Episode

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  1. Particulate-Matter Modeling with UAM-Aero: IMS-95 January 4-6, 1996 Episode Presented by: Modeling Staff of ARB/UCD Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  2. ARB Ajith Kaduwela Luis Woodhouse Jinyou Liang Vernon Hughes Karen Magliano Richard Hackney UCD Michael Kleeman Tony Held Contributors Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  3. IMS-95 • Comprehensive field monitoring program during the winter of 1995-96 in the San Joaquin Valley • Support planning of CRPAQS to: • understand the nature and cause of high [PM], • develop tools to evaluate control strategies, and • understand interaction between PM and gases. • Three winter PM episodes • December 9-11, 1995, • December 24-28, 1995, and • January 4-6, 1996. Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  4. Modeling Domain Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  5. Modeling System • EMS-95 followed by UCD processing • Diagnostic Wind Model • UAM-Aero Version ? • SAPRC-90 chemistry with IEH solver • One size cut – PM10 • SEQUILIB for inorganic PM • Method of Pandis et al. for organic PM • Parameterized fog effects Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  6. Other Inputs • Initial conditions are nearly clean • Boundaries are static (except for PM that changes daily) and nearly clean for gases • Model top at 3 km with 2 layers below diffusion break and 3 above • Diffusion break diagnosed from vertical temperature structure Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  7. NO 5.0E-05 OLE1 2.5E-04 CRES 3.0E-06 NO2 1.0E-04 OLE2 2.2E-04 XOOH 1.0E-10 O3 4.0E-02 OLE3 2.9E-05 RNO3 1.0E-10 HO2 1.0E-10 OLE4 1.0E-10 XC 1.0E-10 OH 1.0E-10 ARO1 1.4E-04 NO3 5.7E-06 RO2 1.0E-10 ARO2 8.0E-05 N2O5 5.7E-06 CCO3 1.0E-10 ETHE 4.0E-04 SO2 1.0E-03 PCO3 1.0E-10 HCHO 3.3E-03 HSO4 1.0E-06 HONO 5.0E-06 CCHO 2.6E-04 COC 1.0E-06 HNO3 5.0E-06 RCHO 1.2E-04 FACD 1.0E-10 HNO4 5.0E-06 MEK 3.0E-05 AACD 1.0E-10 H2O2 1.0E-03 MGLY 3.0E-06 HCL 1.0E-06 CO 2.0E-01 PAN 3.0E-06 NH3 1.0E-03 ALK1 1.5E-03 PPN 1.0E-10 ALK2 8.0E-04 AAFG2 1.0E-10 Gaseous Boundary Conditions (ppm) Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  8. PM Boundary Conditions (g/m3) Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  9. Ozone Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  10. Ozone Movies Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  11. Ozone hole in Bakersfield Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  12. PM10 Comparison Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  13. PM on January 05, 1996 Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  14. PM on January 06, 1996 Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  15. Bakersfield – Van Horn School Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  16. Kern Wildlife Refuge Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  17. Fresno – Einstein Park Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  18. Southwest of Chowchilla Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  19. Findings based on UAM-Aero • O3 performance satisfactory except for Bakersfield where we see an “O3 hole” • Nitrate performance satisfactory • Over-prediction of Sulfate and carbonaceous PM in urban areas but satisfactory in rural areas • Severe under prediction of HNO3 • Performance for NH3, NO, and NO2 mixed Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  20. Sensitivity of NitrateJan. 05, 1996 Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  21. Sensitivity of NitrateJan. 06, 1996 Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  22. Sensitivity Scenarios for Nitrate Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  23. Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  24. Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  25. Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  26. Major Features of Carrying Capacity Diagrams • Up to 50% precursor reductions • Least responsive to VOC reductions • Rural sites are NOx limited • Response is nearly linear • Beyond 50% precursor reductions • Sites behave as expected • Response not linear Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  27. Is NH3 limitation at Bakersfield real? • Emissions • Significant amount of NOx emissions • No large sources of NH3(inventory not verified) • Measurements • 0.25 to 0.3 mole/m3 of excess NH3 Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

  28. Beyond IMS-95 • The expected experience gained • A bulk of CRPAQS air-quality and meteorology data available • Non-FDDA meteorology field for CCQAS domain available for January episode of CRPAQS • First-cut emissions are available • ARB is preparing to exercise Models-3/CMAQ • CRPAQS modeling RFP nearly complete Presentation to the CRPAQS TC

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