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Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

Christoph Oelke, Tingjun Zhang, and Mark Serreze coelke@nsidc.org. Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime. October 27, 2003. Thermal Soil Model Finite difference, 1-D heat conduction with phase change ( Goodrich, 1982 )

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Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

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  1. Christoph Oelke, Tingjun Zhang, and Mark Serreze coelke@nsidc.org Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime October 27, 2003

  2. Thermal Soil Model • Finite difference, 1-D heat conduction with phase change (Goodrich, 1982) • 3 major soil layers: 0 –0.3 m, 0.3 –0.8 m, 0.8 –30 m • 63 model nodes, resolution: 10 cm (near the surface) to 2 m (at 30 m depth) • RIMS Arctic drainage area, 25 km x 25 km EASE Grid • daily time step • NCEP surface air temperature • incl. topography correction • snow depth from SMMR and • SSM/I SWE

  3. 2 3 1 4

  4. Region 1: surface temp. 1980–2002: 0.044 K/yr 1994–2002: 0.142 K/yr Region 1: 2-m temp. 1980–2002: 0.033 K/yr 1994–2002: 0.113 K/yr

  5. Continuous permafrost: Soil surface temperature (a), 2-m temperature (b) for 4 seasons

  6. Average temperature profiles, and trend profiles (1980-2002)

  7. DJF MAM JJA SON

  8. Arctic Drainage Basin: ALD Oelke, Zhang, & Serreze: Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

  9. ALD anomaly by river basin (cont. + disc. permafrost) Oelke, Zhang, & Serreze: Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

  10. Publications Oelke, C., T. Zhang, M.C. Serreze, and R.L. Armstrong, Regional-scale modeling of soil freeze/thaw over the Arctic drainage basin, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D10), 4314, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002722, 2003. Oelke, C., and T. Zhang, Comparing thaw depths measured at CALM field sites to estimates from a medium-resolution hemispheric heat conduction model, 8th Intl. Conf. on Permafrost, Extended Abstracts, 2003. Oelke, C., and T. Zhang, A model study of circum-Arctic soil temperatures, Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, submitted June 2003. Oelke, C., T. Zhang, and M.C. Serreze, An Arctic active-layer climatology, 1980–2002, in prep. Oelke, Zhang, & Serreze: Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime

  11. Christoph Oelke, Tingjun Zhang, and Mark Serreze coelke@nsidc.org Modeling evidence for recent warming of the Arctic soil thermal regime October 27, 2003

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