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OUTLINE

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OUTLINE

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  1. Simulations of ozone over Israel, West Bank, and JordanE. Weinroth, M. Luria, A. Ben-Nun, C. Emery, J. Kaplan, M. Pelegand Y. MahrerSeagram Center for Soil and Water Sciences Faculty of AgricultureThe Hebrew University Rehovot 76100 Israelweinroth@agri.huji.ac.ilS. Kasakseh, Applied Research Institute JerusalemBethlehem, West BankJ. Safi, Environmental Protection Research InstituteGaza City, Gaza R. Bornstein, Dept. of Meteorology, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USAAtmospheric Sciences and Air Quality Conference27–29 April 2005, San Francisco, California

  2. OUTLINE • PROJECT OBJECTIVES • METEOROLOGICAL PATTERNS • RAMS & MM5 RESULTS • EMISSION PATTERNS • CAMx RESULTS • CONCLUSIONS

  3. Specific project objectives: • Install environmental monitoring sites • Prepare environmental databases • Prepare regional climatology • Conduct field campaigns during periods conducive to poor regional AQ • (5) Apply RAMS & MM5 toCAMx to increase understanding of current & future air quality problems

  4. Topomap of study area Land-use map

  5. Emission Inventory: 1997- 8 • 15 Large Stationary (point) sources (58% fuel consumption) • 400 Medium Stationary (point) sources (7%) • Small Stationary (area) sources (12%) • Solvents (area) sources • Biogenic Stationary (area) sources (isoprene and monoterpene) • Mobile (area) sources, both ground based and aerial (22%)

  6. Weather Conditions • Pre-episode: weak Persian trough slow V & low mixing depth  high NOx  O3titration (costal) • Episode: trough strengthens increased surface HPG  augmented westerly sea breeze front  high inland O3 concentration Med Sea

  7. RAMS • Non hydrostatic meso-met model • 3 nested grids • Initialized & updated every 6 h with ECMWF output • Topography from GTOPO30 project, horizontal grid spacing of 30 sec (approx 1 km2) • Local land-use and DTM data (25 x 25 m2) for 2nd and 3rd grids. • RAMS met input to CAMx 900 Km 270 Km 180 Km 900Km 360 Km 270 Km Cell 20X20 Km2 Cell 5X5 Km2 1.25X1.25Km2

  8. 1.8.97 7:00 5 m/s RAMS 1.8.97 19:00

  9. Or Akiva Station Elyakim Station Temperature ( C ) Wind speed ( m/s)

  10. NewMM5 at SJSU • Close as possible to RAMS set-up • 3 two-way nested grids • Initialized & updated every 6 hr with ECMWF fields • Topography from GTOPO30 project, horizontal grid spacing of 30 sec (approx 1 km2) • Land-use & DTM (25 x 25 m2) for 2nd & 3rd grids • MM5 Met fields will also be used as input to CAMx • Meso wind convention: flag is 5 m/s & full barb is 1 m/s

  11. 1.8.97 19:00 MM5 1.8.97 7:00

  12. CAMx • Map projection: Polar Stereographic • Grid area: 270 x 370 km2 cells at 5 X 5 km2 • Transport algorithm: area preserving flux-form advection solver (Bott 1989) • CBM-IV: Carbon Bond Mechanism + CMC fast solver • Plume-in-grid:sub model for main stationary sources; maturity parameters 2500 m or 12 h

  13. מקרא O3 ppb 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 RAMS/Camx Results vs Airborne Measurements: 300 m AGL CAMx model Flight Path Jerusalem Jerusalem 1.8.97 15:00

  14. RAMS/Camx O3: Results vs Measurements

  15. Legend O3 ppb 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 • Allemission sources • All Industrysources • Main (large) Industry sources • Medium and small (low) industry • Without Industry; only Vehicles, Solvents & Vegetation • Vehicles only • Without vehicles = All Industry, Solvents & Vegetation • Without emissions (initial and boundary conditions) 8 Emission Input Scenarios All emission sources All industry sources Without industry sources 1.8.97 15:00 1.8.97 15:00 1.8.97 15:00 1.8.97 15:00

  16. Ozone Peaks for all Scenarios: 1 Aug ‘97

  17. Summary of results: • Temporal & spatial emission patterns reflect land use patterns • Spatial & temporal variations in met factors & air quality concentrations were reproduced • RAMS & MM5 reproduce observed transport patterns • CAMx ozone reproduces transboundary transport patterns observed by aircraft

  18. Current Efforts: • CAMx + current emissions + RAMS or MM5 • ARIJ, EPRI, & HUJI planners to identify future emission scenarios for CAMx from 2010 & 2020 population conditions (when regional populations will have doubled present values) • Jordanian scientists joined project

  19. FUNDING: USAID/MERC PROGRAM

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