Chapter 8 Stock Valuation

1. Chapter 8 Stock Valuation

2. Valuing a Company and Its Future • Value of a stock depends upon its future returns from dividends and capital gains/losses • We use historical data to gain insight into the future direction of a company and its profitability • Past results are not a guarantee of future results • Information used for forecasting: • Past price, volume • Financial reports (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement) • Macroeconomic series

3. Valuing a Company and Its Future • Forecasts normally involves (an overview): • Sales and sales growth • Profit margin: converts sales into earnings • Returns (ROE): converts equity into earnings • Payout ratio: converts earnings into dividends. • ROE & payout ratio are also used to project future growth rates. High return and low payout leads to higher growth in the future. • Price to earning/book ratios: If these ratios are stable, one can use forecasted earnings/book to predict future prices. • Book value refers to the accounting value of the firm recorded on the balance sheet.

4. Table 8.1 Comparative Dollar-Based and Common-Size Income Statements Universal Office Furnishings, Inc. 2010 Income Statements

5. Steps in Valuing a Company • Three steps are necessary to project key financial variables into the future: • Step 1: Forecast future sales & profits • Step 2: Forecast future EPS and dividends • Step 3: Forecast future stock price

6. Step 1: Forecast Future Sales and Profits • Forecasted Future Sales based upon: • “Naïve” approach based upon continued historical trends, or • Historical trends adjusted for anticipated changes in operations or environment • Forecasted Net Profit Margin based upon: • “Naïve” approach based upon continued historical trends, or • Historical trends adjusted for anticipated changes in operations or environment, or • Earnings forecasts from brokerage houses, Value Line, Forbes, or other sources

7. Step 1: Forecast Future Sales and Profits (cont’d) • Example: Assume last year’s sales were $100 million, revenue growth is estimated at 8% and the net profit margin is expected to be 6%.

8. Step 2: Forecast Future EPS • Forecasted outstanding shares of common stock based upon: • “Naïve” approach based upon continued historical tends, or • Historical trends adjusted for anticipated changes in operations or environment • Forecasted Earnings Per Share (EPS) based upon:

9. Step 2: Forecast Future EPS (cont’d) • Example: Assume estimated profits are $6.5 million, 2 million shares of common stock are outstanding, and the dividend payout ratio is estimated at 40%.

10. Step 2: Forecast Future Dividends • Forecasted Dividend Payout ratio based upon: • “Naïve” approach based upon continued historical trends, or • Historical trends adjusted for anticipated changes in operations or environment

11. Step 2: Forecast Future Dividends (cont’d) • Example: Assume estimated profits are $6.5 million, 2 million shares of common stock are outstanding, and the dividend payout ratio is estimated at 40%.

12. Step 3: Forecast P/E Ratio • Estimated P/E ratio based upon: • “Average market multiple” of all stocks in the marketplace, or • “Relative P/E multiple” of individual stocks • Adjust up or down based upon expectations of economic conditions, general stock market outlook in near term, or anticipated changes in company’s operating results

13. Step 3: Forecast P/E Ratio • Estimated P/E ratio is function of several variables, including: • Growth rate in earnings • General state of the market • Amount of debt in a company’s capital structure • Current and projected rate of inflation • Level of dividends

14. Step 3: Forecast Future Stock Price • Example: Assume estimated EPS are $3.25 and the estimated P/E ratio is 17.5 times. • To estimate the stock price in three years, extend the EPS figure for two more years and repeat the calculations.

15. Table 8.3Summary Forecast Statistics, Universal Office Furnishings

16. Using Stock Valuation • Once we have an estimated future stock price, we can compare it to the current market price to see if it may be a good investment candidate: current price < estimated priceundervalued current price = estimated pricefairly valued current price > estimated price overvalued

17. The Valuation Process • Valuation is a process by which an investor uses risk and return concepts to determine the worth of a security. • Valuation models help determine what a stock ought to be worth • If expected rate of return equals or exceeds our target yield, the stock could be a worthwhile investment candidate • If the intrinsic worth equals or exceeds the current market value, the stock could be a worthwhile investment candidate • There is no assurance that actual outcome will match expected outcome

18. Required Rate of Return • Required Rate of Return is the return necessary to compensate an investor for the risk involved in an investment. • Used as a target return to compare forecasted returns on potential investment candidates

19. Required Rate of Return (cont’d) • Example: Assume a company has a beta of 1.30, the risk-free rate is 5.5% and the expected market return is 15%. What is the required rate of return for this investment?

20. Other Stock Valuation Methods • Dividend Valuation Model • Zero growth • Constant growth • Variable growth • Dividend and Earnings Approach • Price/Earnings Approach • Other Price-Relative Approaches • Price-to-cash-flow ratio • Price-to-sales ratio • Price-to-book-value ratio

21. Dividend Valuation Model: Zero Growth • Uses present value to value stock • Assumes stock value is capitalized value of its annual dividends • Potential capital gains are really based upon future dividends to be received • Assumes dividends will not grow over time

22. Dividend Valuation Model: Constant Growth • Uses present value to value stock • Assumes stock value is capitalized value of its annual dividends • Assumes dividends will grow at a constant rate over time • Works best with established companies with history of steady dividend payments

23. Growth rate forecast • Based on historical sales/EPS growth • Based on earnings power (ROE) and how much is reinvested: • Expected growth = ROE*(1- PayoutRatio) • ROE (return on equity) = Net Income/Total Equity

24. Dividend Valuation Model: Variable Growth • Uses present value to value stock • Assume stock value is capitalized value of its annual dividends • Allows for variable growth in dividend growth rate • Most difficult aspect is specifying the appropriate growth rate over an extended period of time

25. Dividends-and-Earnings Approach • Very similar to variable-growth dividend-valuation model • Uses present value to value stock • Assumes stock value is capitalized value of its annual dividends and future sale price • Works well with companies who pay little or no dividends

26. Price/Earnings (P/E) Approach • Future price is based upon the appropriate P/E ratio and forecasted EPS • Simple to use and easy to understand • Widely used in stock valuation

27. Price-to-Cash-Flow (P/CF) Approach • Similar to P/E approach, but substitutes projected cash flow for earnings • Widely used by investors • Many consider cash flow to be more accurate than profits to evaluate a stock

28. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Approach • Similar to P/E approach, but substitutes projected sales for earnings • Useful for companies with no earnings or erratic earnings

29. Price-to-Book-Value (P/BV) Approach • Similar to P/E approach, but substitutes book value for earnings