Heat Prediction

1. Heat Prediction Gregory Lundeen Science and Operations Officer Weather Forecast Office El Paso Area July 13, 2016 NOAA’s National Weather Service • NOAA’s National Weather Service

2. Heat Prediction • Heat Wave Defined • Heat Climatology • Heat Prediction • Heat Advisory / Warning • Addendum

3. Heat Wave • Definition: • General – A prolonged period of abnormally hot weather relative to normal temperatures for that time of year. • Technical – A period of 48 hours during which neither the overnight low nor the daytime heat index (or temperature) falls below NWS heat stress thresholds of 80F to 105 F.

4. Heat Wave • Main meteorological signature of a heat wave

5. Heat Wave • Neccessary Conditions in the El Paso area: • Subtropical high pressure aloft (Chihuahuan High) positioned just over or south the local area. If the high is too far east – Monsoonal Flow occurs and temperatures fall. • Warmest Temperatures along the west side of the dome of high pressure. • Dry atmospheric conditions (low humidity), sometimes with a southwest to west flow at the surface. • Mostly likely occurrence June & July

6. Heat & Heat Index • For humidity values less than 40% the • actual temperature replaces the heat index. • Temperatures are used in the El Paso area.

7. Heat Climatology • Months for 100 Degree Days: • Month # Days Percent High Date • May 63 3.3% 105 2005 • June 875 45.3% 114 1994 • July 708 36.7% 112 1979 • August 257 13.3% 110 1884 • September 27 1.4% 104 1982 • Earliest - May 8th Latest - September 15th

8. Heat Climatology

9. Heat Warning/Advisory • Excessive Heat Warning—Take Action!issued within 12 hours of the onset of extremely dangerous heat conditions. Criteria - maximum temperature is expected to be 110° or higher for at least 2 days and night time air temperatures will not drop below 75°. • Excessive Heat Watches—Be Prepared !Heat watches are issued when conditions are favorable for an excessive heat event in the next 24 to 72 hours. • Heat Advisory—Take Action!issued within 12 hours of the onset of dangerous heat conditions. Criteria - maximum temperature is expected to be 105° or higher for at least 2 days, and night time air temperatures will stay above 75°. • Excessive Heat Outlooks-issued when the potential exists for an excessive heat event in the next 3-7 days.

10. Heat Warning/Advisory

11. Heat Prediction • Forecast Tools: • Climatology – mostly likely period June-July • Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Provides Long Term Seasonal Outlooks out to 2 years. • NCEP - NWS Numerical Models produce data out to as much as 16 days. • Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issues national outlooks through 7 days. • Local NWS forecast office issues area specific forecasts through 7 days.

12. Climate Prediction Center • CPC provides long term outlooks and trends. • www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

13. Climate Prediction Center • CPC 3 month outlook for temperature probability

14. Climate Prediction Center • CPC 1 month outlook for temperature probability

15. Climate Prediction Center • CPC 8 to 14 day outlook for temperature probability

16. NWS Meteorological Models • Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Temperature. • Data provided out to 16 days with skill out to 8 days.

17. Weather Prediction Center • WPC maximum heat index forecast • www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml

18. Local Weather Office • WFO El Paso Forecast Products (out to 7 Days) • Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) • Zone Forecast Discussion (ZFP) • Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) • Point Forecast Matrix (PFM) • State Forecast Table (SFT) • Graphical Forecasts (NDFD) (collaborated) • Graphicasts (for Web Page, Facebook, etc) • Weather Hazards Outlook & Matrix (for IDSS) • Heat Advisory / Warning (NPW)

19. Forecast Products • Local forecasts available on our webpage • weather.gov/epz

20. Forecast Products • Gridded Forecast (NDFD) describes the • weather in picture format out through 7 days

21. NWS Product Dissemination • NOAA Weather Wire Service • NOAA Weather Radio • Web Pages • Facebook • Twitter • TV, Radio and Print Media • Decision Support to Core Partners

22. Wrap Up • Questions to consider: • What additional information do you need? • Are the Advisory/Warning thresholds adequate? • What lead times do you need? • What resources would you like the NWS provide?

23. Thank You For Your Time! • National Weather Service • Forecast Office El Paso Area • 7955 Airport Road • Santa Teresa NM 88008 • Phone: 575-589-4088 • Fax: 575-589-4026 • Web Page: weather.gov/epz • Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSElPaso

24. Addendum • Useful Web Page Links • More information on local forecast products • NWS heat safety tips

25. Useful Web Page Links • weather.gov • weather.gov/epz • www.ncep.noaa.gov • www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov • www.wpc.ncep.noag.gov • climate.gov • www.srh.noaa.gov • www.nws.noaa.gov/om/heat/index.shtml

26. Forecast Products • Area Forecast • Discussion • Product that • Describes current • weather patterns • and conditions. • It discusses • what to expect over • the next seven days.

27. Forecast Products • Point Forecast • Matrices • Product that • lists specific • forecast • Values for a • Specific area • Out through • 7 days.

28. Forecast Products • Hazardous Weather Outlook describes any • expected hazardous weather • (including heat) out through 7 days

29. Forecast Products • Zone Forecast • Product • Text based product that forecasts • expected weather at • specific regions • within the area • through 7 days.

30. Forecast Products Web Page

31. Graphicasts

32. Climate.gov

33. Heat Safety Tips Web Page

34. Heat Safety Tips

35. Heat Safety Tips

36. Local Heat Safety Tips