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The Costs of Chronic Disease

The Costs of Chronic Disease. Jack Zwanziger School of Public Health UIC. Overview of Chronic Disease in the United States. Sources: Centers for Disease Control, American Cancer Society, American Heart Association. Summary.

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The Costs of Chronic Disease

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  1. The Costs of Chronic Disease Jack Zwanziger School of Public Health UIC

  2. Overview of Chronic Disease in the United States Sources: Centers for Disease Control, American Cancer Society, American Heart Association

  3. Summary • Chronic diseases account for 70% of all deaths in the United States.  • The medical care costs of people with chronic diseases account for more than 75% of the nation’s $1.4 trillion medical care costs.  • Chronic diseases account for one-third of the years of potential life lost before age 65.  • Chronic diseases increase with age

  4. Diabetes by Age Estimated total prevalence of diabetes in people aged 20 years or older, by age group— United States, 2005 Source: CDC, 1999–2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey estimates of total prevalence (both diagnosed and undiagnosed) were projected to year 2005.

  5. Diabetes Prevalence Prevalence of Diagnosed Diabetes by Age, United States, 1980–2004 Source: CDC, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion

  6. Prevalence of Cardiovascular Diseases in Americans Age 20 and Older by Age and Sex Source: NHANES: 1999-2002. CDC/NCHS and NHLBI. Includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke and hypertension.

  7. Health Expenditures Estimated Per Capita Health Expenditures, by Age and Sex, 1995

  8. U.S. Population Projections 2000- 2030(in thousands) Source: Population Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Internet Release Date January 13, 2000

  9. Illinois Population Projections2000-2030 Source: U.S Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005. Internet Release Date: April 21, 2005

  10. Projecting costs • Basic assumptions • 8% underlying growth in healthcare costs (based on 25 years experience) • Relative expenditures by age groups remain the same • National and Illinois census projections • Nationally, average costs would increase by ~7.7 X (2005 vs 2030); even without aging it would increase by 6.5X • Illinois average costs would increase by ~7.6X • During the same period the overall economy would be expected to increase by 300-400%

  11. Implications • The rates of increases are unsustainable • Aging will accelerate health care cost increases • Illinois with relatively low population growth and rapidly aging population will face an even greater challenge over the long term • Cost savings must be generated from reductions in chronic disease costs (the Willie Sutton principle)

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